Well it was 2-2 for a slightly losing night. We decided to go for the riskier Blackhawks in Regulation bet than Blackhawks to win including overtime/shootout. Obviously if we had played it safe we would have won that one.
However I mentioned yesterday that neither of us felt right about betting that one and even though it cost us the win we still felt the same way. When it gets to OT/Shootout it’s practically a coin flip, and so we’re only betting 1.71 at that point when true odds are 2.00. Looking historically at our bets, we missed out on a lot of units in strong, confident picks of teams at 1.70-1.75 when we could have bet them in regulation.
We won’t be doing that ALL the time – but you’ll see picks like that more often. And honestly? Sometimes it feels better to be wrong than lucky(although our betting balance disagrees!). Whether we underrestimated the Devils last night or overrestimated the Blackhawks – it gives us something to look back to and really take a good look at.
We got another win with the WHL to bring it to 7-1 for the season. A nice start there.
Onto Saturday. A lot of games today as per usual and it all begins at 1pm with the Panthers vs Sabres. Love a good Saturday afternoon game. We’re skipping that one though.
Penguins vs Flyers Betting Tips:
The Flyers have had some disappointing perfomances lately. Some of it you can just put down to bad luck but they’re having some real struggles. They’re having a lot of high scoring games though – both for and against. Penguins are a bit slack on the offensive side of things but they’ve clicked the last two games and we’re going to go with that happening again. They certainly get the shots on target enough. We like the Flyers to be competitive however and are taking Over 5.5 Goals.
Blues vs Kings Betting Tips:
The Kings are a tight team and are playing fairly solid defensively without Quick. The Blues have been quite disappointing after a solid start to the season. Their last two home performances in particular. However we do like their defense for the most part and their penalty kill has been solid. They just need to start getting more shots on net. We like them to raise their game and take care of the Kings here.
The Kings however have went to overtime in their last 4 and won them all. Blues have had two games go to overtime and lost both. While overtime and shootouts are generally 50/50 for the most part, you do see some situations like that which can tip the scales in one sides favour. Based on that we don’t see the value in taking Blues to win including overtime/shootout and will take Blues in regulation.
Mathematical/Experimental Betting Systems:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. Previous Records: 1st Period System 30-36 (+15.99u), OHL 28-15 (+17.15u)
WHL Betting Tips(7-1, +4.69u): Medicine Hat Tigers to win at 1.84 odds. Prince George Cougars to win at 1.67 odds. Prince Albert Raiders to win at 1.87 odds.
OHL, WHL & AHL Betting: