Written by Scott on Thursday, December 11th, 2025
Follow @BetNHL
4 games yesterday.
I had the Kings to win in regulation against the Kraken but the Kraken won 3-2 in overtime to snap their losing skid at 6 games.
The Hawks beat the Rangers 3-0 with Bedard picking up a goal and an assist. Wings were up 4-0 and held on to win 4-3. Lundell scored late and the Panthers beat the Mammoth 4-3.
13 game’s tonight.
Hurricanes vs Capitals
Played on November 11th with the Caps winning 4-1.
Canes are 5-4-1 in last 10, 8-4-1 on the road and 5-2-0 against Metropolitan Division teams. They are 5th in GPG and 11th in GAPG.
The Caps are rolling. They are 8-1-1 in last 10, 10-5-1 at home and against teams from the Metro they are 7-2-1. They are 3rd in GPG and 2nd in GAPG. They have been off since Sunday.
This should be a good game. The data is back and forth which isn’t helping to make a case for either team.
Canes better in CF, CA, SF and SA but the Caps are better in GF and GA.
Sharks vs Leafs
Sharks are 4-6 in last 10. They have faced some tough teams this month and going 2-3. On the road they are 5-9-0. They are 24th in GPG and 23rd in GAPG so hard to have much success ranking so low.
The Leafs are slowly turning things around. They have gone 6-2-2 in their last 10 and 3-0-1 this month. At home they are 9-4-4. They are 5th in GPG and 20th in GAPG.
I want to take the Leafs but they have goalie issues, McMann is suspended and have plenty of injury issues to deal with that I’m reluctant to take them in regulation which is needed.
Knights vs Flyers
The Knights are 5-2-3 in last 10 and 7-2-5 on the road. They rank 14th in GPG and 12th in GAPG.
The Flyers are playing well. They have gone 7-3-0 in last 10 and 10-5-2 in Philadelphia. They rank 23rd in GPG and 10th in GAPG.
Would like to take the Flyers now that they are playing well and at home but the Knights have had 3 of their last 4 games this month need extra time.
Ducks vs Islanders
Ducks have won 3 in a row and rank 2nd in GPG and 3rd in SOG. Incredible finish to their last game.
I’m not touching this game. Go Ducks!!
Senators vs Jackets
Both teams on 3 game losing skids.
Both are in the bottom half of the league in GPG and GAPG so I’m passing.
Canadiens vs Penguins
The Habs have lost their last 2 games and have gone 5-5-0 in last 10. On the road they are 8-3-2 and rank tied 9th in GPG and 30th in GAPG.
The Pens have also lost 2 in a row and are 5-2-3 in last 10. At home they have gone 6-4-3 and are tied for 9th in GPG and 8th in GAPG.
Both on losing skids so I’m passing.
Lightning vs Devils
They played on November 18th with the Lightning winning 5-1.
Lightning are 6-4-0 in last 10 and 9-4-2 on the road. They are in 1st in the Atlantic but have only a 6 point lead over the 7th place Sens who also have a game in hand.
The Devils are 4-6-0 in last 10. In New Jersey they have gone 9-4-1. They are in 6th in the Metro but are only 4 points back of the 1st place Caps.
Similar records based on where they are playing which is always no help.
Stars vs Wild
They played back on October 14th with the Stars winning 5-2.
The Stars are playing well going 8-0-2 in last 10, on a 4 game win streak, are 11-1-4 on the road and are in 2nd in the Central. Against teams from the Central they are 7-1-0.
The Wild are also playing well going 7-2-1 in last 10 and 8-3-4 at home. Against teams from the Central they have gone 5-2-1. They are in 3rd in the Central but 10 points back of the Stars.
The Stars road record has been great and makes me want to take them. Let’s look through the metrics and see if it’s a play or not.
Everything is close which makes this a pass.
Blues vs Predators
Thankfully it’s a pass.
Bruins vs Jets
The Bruins seem to have turned things around. They have won their last 3 games, are 6-4-0 in last 10 and are 7-8-0 on the road.
The Jets have lost 2 in a row, are 2-7-1 in last 10 and at home they have gone 7-6-0.
Both are scoring 3 or more goals per game and both are allowing more than 3 a game.
Looking at the Bruins record on the road the Jets record at home and its similar success for each team which makes this a tough game to call.
Wings vs Oilers
They played back on October 19th with the Wings winning 4-2.
The Wings played against the Flames yesterday.
The Oilers are 4-4-2 in last 10 and a respectable 7-3-3 at home.
With the Oilers home record vs a team that just played I would lean towards the Oilers but even with their home play their record of late isn’t very good.
Panthers vs Avalanche
Panthers played yesterday against the Mammoth.
The Avalanche took the loss in their last game but are still 7-1-2 in last 10. At home they have gone 11-0-2. They rank 1st in GPG, SOG and GAPG.
With the Panthers just playing and having to take the Avs with the Puck Line to just barely get to the minimum makes this a pass.
Sabres vs Canucks
Sabres are 5-5 in last 10 and 3-9-2 on the road.
The Canucks are a mess at the moment. They are 2-7-1 in last 10 and 4-9-1 at home.
With the way both teams are playing I have no idea who wins here.
Any Over/under tips?
No.
Ottawa vs Columbus Over 5.5 at -175.
This is an alt line. Over the last two months Merzlikins has allowed 32 goals against in 7 games. Ullmark has also performed poorly. Columbus offense hasn’t performed last two games. But the xGF was still pretty good. Those games were also against Washington and Carolina who have much better goaltending. In the four games prior, CBJ was able to put up: 6 against Florida, 6 against Detroit, 5 against NJ and 3 against Pittsburgh. The Ottawa offense has been inconsistent over the last 10 games, which causes me a little bit of concern. But their xGF has been solid over their last 6 games, so they are generating chances. Both teams should contribute enough offense, and against goaltenders that haven’t been able to save much, I think I can get to 6 goals.
Toronto -140 in regulation.
Nedeljkovic had a solid game against Carolina, but it feels like a bit of an outlier when you look at his performances against Vegas, Washington and Philly that sandwich it. San Jose has also struggled to generate both xGF and Actual Goals while on the road recently. Most of their road success was done early in the season. In the Sharks 8 road games since November 11 however, they have just two wins. They’ve also been held to less than 2 goals in 5 of their last 8 road games. Add to that Hildeby has played well for Toronto. My concern here is Toronto’s offense. But the xGF has ticked up for them in three of their last 4.
Washington -105.
I realize this game could go either way. But I think the wrong team is being favored.
PIT – ML
TBL – ML goalie fade
TOR/SJS – under 7.5, NG first 5
DAL/MIN – under 7.5, NG first 5
EDM/DET – over
CBJ/OTT – over (OTT offense scares me but xGF tells me they should finally breakthrough on Merz!! CBJ no issues with offence)
I saw a lot of matchups that had teams with similar stats, but looking much deeper into the scores and situations, the only one I thought matched the requirements for a “Tie in Regulation” bet was Vegas at Philly. I put a tiny tiny amount of cashola on that bet. Now watch all the games TIRegulation.
Your analysis made me go over on the Bruins game. It made sense. 4 goals in 11 minutes, looking good.
Today I have:
Jets-Bruins over 6.5 (update, its now 5 goals in 14 mins)
Avs -1.5
Stars in regulation
Leafs in regulation
I also put a bet on the Ducks, and I agree.. Fuck the Islanders. This team annoys me.
Edit: I wanted to take Tampa too, but I chickened out. Seems like I shouldn’t have.