Written by Graeme on Saturday, December 13th, 2025
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Two games last night.
Game worked out as the bookies expected with Blues winning in a tight one. And I am glad I took that extra time on the Kraken game yesterday to spot their 5 vs 5 issues.
We move onto Saturday, December 13th. Your usual busy schedule.
Guess nothing to do but get into it eh? I’m hopped up on caffeine and ready to rock.
Devils vs Ducks
Torrid time for the New Jersey Devils at the moment. Ducks remain a tricky one. Ack – Ducks are 2.00 odds. I was hoping for a bit more value on them after glancing at the metrics. This is a nice and winnable game for them as they have finally found a team with just as bad GA/xGA for them!
Alright let me think about this one. Ducks win might be a play, as might the over. The over….I am not too concerned about the Ducks. While it can be hot and cold if you’re back them for an over, you’re usually on the right side.
What about the Devils? Offense lighting it up at the moment. Alright – I won’t bore you with it all but I’ve spent a lot of time on the data for both teams last 10, and I think there is enough to justify the over. It could very likely be a 6-1 victory or a 3-4 sort of game. And hell we know how hockey is – it could be a 1-0 dull af lunchtime game that ruins the mood for the rest of the day. That’s how we roll. And that’s why they invented beer.
Over 6 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -120 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/12/13 11:15:36 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Senators
Wild have bounced back with two solid wins. Sens just coming off the big Jackets road win. The Wild are tricky – as their advanced metrics in a lot of areas are weak, and they have been surviving via solid goaltending. But this actually looks a good little spot for them, and their defense has improved a LOT lately.
I’d love to see them scoring more as they have a great xGF/60. It’s tricky with their injuries to back them, and now they have that big trade to accomodate. Middleton also out now.
I think I can back them regardless here – but it’s definitely a risk with that sort of upheaval, so bare that in mind.
Wild incl OT/SO if Wallstedt in net
Ontario: 1.87 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 1.87 Odds at TonyBet
USA: -115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/12/13 11:15:36 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Penguins vs Sharks
Okay I’m getting a bit scared here – because 3 games in, and this is another one I like, which is Pens in regulation.
By the metrics it checks all the boxes.
The problem of course is their incoming form is so weak, and they performed poorly against Montreal who have similar stats. And Sharks can pull a good game out of nowhere.
I’ll begrudingly pass on this one primaruly due to Pens form. But this is one of those “yeah I’m personally betting it” plays.
Islanders vs Lightning
Fuck the Islanders. Metrics all go Tampas way. So enjoy the Islanders winning 3-0.
Jets vs Capitals
Jets on a 3 game skid. Last few games for Caps been a bit tough. I think by the data probably a Caps win but not one I am madly in love with honestly. Especially at the odds I’m not seeing value.
Blue Jackets vs Knights
By the data yeah Knights should take it but not enough to back on the road at this price.
Flyers vs Hurricanes
Eh – Canes shouldn’t be this heavily favouried I’d say. Like yeah I’d favour them but not by this much, and Flyers offense have been mostly consistent offensively. Definitely a game where I could see an upset. I used to think it’d be cool to have an “underdog of the day” deal going on here – I keep meaning to track that privately – and if I were doing that, Philly would be a strong contender today.
Rangers vs Canadiens
Nothing here. Could see the Habs pulling off the slight upset W.
Leafs vs Oilers
Yeeeeah I ain’t even going near this one.
Blackhawks vs Red Wings
Wings probably win but man at those odds and on the road for so many games? Meh.
Stars vs Panthers
Stars looking to bounce back aftear a great streak was ended in Minnesota. Panthers are a bit of a mixed bag. I said this before though – by the metrics the Stars are just overperforming a lot. So it makes them very hard to back them. Their FF/60 in particular is abysmal. But maybe they are a team that we look outside the metrics.
Like – by certain data, this one goes over nice and easy or the Stars win. But it’s just hard looking at the data. Then actually their goaltending has been good overall (although fallen by the wayside last two).
I think this one could go over but just not sure about Panthers scoring the goals. Then the Stars advanced offensive metrics concern me. This is one of those I’ll begrudingly pass, but throw something on it just as an entertainment bet.
Avalanche vs Predators
Just played. Happy to pass.Not interested in Avs -1.5 anyway which is what it’d have to be.
Kings vs Flames
Not really seeing anything here. Probably Kings but not enough to back them in regulation.
Minnesota – Ottawa
November brought a true transformation for the Wild. They seemed to awaken from their slumber and show a completely different side. A phenomenal winning streak allowed them to recoup their early season losses and climb the standings.
December continued this positive trend, though perhaps at a slightly slower pace.
December didn’t start well for the Senators, as they went winless for three games. However, the last game in Columbus provided a breakthrough. A road win, especially after a difficult streak, could be the boost the team needs to get back on track.
Therefore, I believe that this match should end in fair draw after regular time.
FWIW I also made a play on Minnesota -118. Still looking through the later game slate for a potential other bet.
Minnesota have generated chances offensively, but slight concern on their inability to cash them recently. The last two games they’ve started to break out though, and the xGF has remained high throughout. I felt like with Ottawa’s poor goaltending, Wild may be able to continue to find the back of the net with a little more ease today. Wild’s defense and goaltending has been solid and may negate some of Ottawa’s chances. I thought there was decent value based on the line.