Written by Graeme on Saturday, December 20th, 2025
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My apologies for no betting tips yesterday – that was completely on me.
I wish I had a better excuse but I just totally forgot what day it was. I’d been up in Toronto Tuesday->Thursday, but I kept getting confused last weekend and thinking it was Monday-Wednesday.
Somehow that rolled into yesterday, and it wasn’t until 5pm when I realized it was Friday when my wife asked what time we were leaving for the movies.
I love the holiday season but man it really does mess with your schedule.
Let’s look at Saturdays slate. Feeling a bit under the weather today so may be a bit abrupt.
Capitals vs Red Wings
Caps bounced back with a good win over the Leafs. Wings been performing well. I gotta say – metrics really go the Wings way. That Caps GA/60 is so good of course despite their piss-poor xGA. If Lindgren was in net I’d back the Wings here but it’s Thompson confirmed, plus momentum going the opposite way for that pick.
Rangers vs Flyers
Nothing here. I think there’s probably slight value on the Flyers but not enough to back.
Wild vs Oilers
Wild on a tear even against some trickly opponents. Now they’re got a very tricky opponent in a rejuvenated Edmonton Oilers. The metrics point to a Wild win, alas the odds appear to be spot on.
Senators vs Blackhawks
The Blackhawks really seem to be struggling at the moment. Sens better CF% and FF%, scoring more, xG% better etc. Regulation play would be the easiest bet to make in the world here. Unfortunately with the odds it’d have to be -1.5.
It definitely has merit by the metrics, based primarily on the Hawks horrendous offense. And Bedard b eing out is hurting them. Problem is, Sens have been a bit of a mess themselves. But when they do win in regulation lately, they at least cover.
I thiiiiiiiiiiiiink there is just enough here to go with Sens -1.5.
Ontario: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +110 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/12/20 11:56:16 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Sabres vs Islanders
Fuck the Islanders.By the metrics, Sabres should win. Expect the Islanders to steal it.
Panthers vs Blues
Two teams performing pretty well. Panthers on the B2B. By the data they should take this one handily. Not a fan of the B2B though.
Predators vs Leafs
Couple of general inconsisent teams. Metrics are a bit all over the place. Not seeing anything.
Bruins vs Canucks
Nothing for this one. Both teams general polar opposites stats wise and Canucks on the B2B makes it an easy pass for me.
Lightning vs Hurricanes
Tampa on a slight skid but favoured here. Data backs that up but they are a hard team to back based on results.
Canadiens vs Penguins
Habs coming in off the big Blackhawks win. Pens looking to bounce back after that dismal Sens showing. Skinner projected tonight. Fowler confirmed for Habs.
The Habs goalscoring can be hot or cold at times but more hot than cold last little batch so let’s hope it’s hot in Montreal tonight.
Over 6.5 incl OT
Ontario: 2.02 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 2.02 Odds at TonyBet
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/12/20 11:56:16 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flames vs Knights
Nothing here feels like a close one.
Ducks vs Jackets
Another proper coinflip between two teams who just played, and one on a B2B. No thank you.
Sharks vs Kraken
Kraken will be hoping to bust out of their horrific run here. Might be a good spot for them I agree with the bookies close to a coinflip.
