Written by Graeme on Sunday, December 21st, 2025
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1-1 yesterday for a slight profit.
Sens coverd the handicap thanks to a big third period where they racked up 18 shots and scored 3 goals.
Lost with the over in Habs/Penguins. Habs did the job. Penguins tried, and racked up a high xG, but could not get past Jacob Fowler.
A lot of back to backs today which I am not particularly fond of but let’s see if anything stands out.
Wings vs Capitals
Just played. No interest.
Wild vs Avalanche
Wild been a great team to back but on a B2B against the Avs – very tricky spot. By the advanced metrics I wouldn’t consider them anyway – but with how they are playing, not a team I want to back against.
Bruins vs Senators
Both on a B2B. By the metrics, odds seem about spot on. Gut says the Bruins pull this one off but there’s nothing beyond that.
Devils vs Sabres
Sabres on a B2B. These two last played November 28th where the Devils ran out 5-0 winners on the road.
Their results coming into this are pretty meh. Better CF% and FF%. xGF% is 50/50. It’s just the Devils inability to score that is such a concern. Sabres have the streak going and despite the B2B will be feeling some confidence after last nights win.
I’m close to this one but it feels like I am forcing it a bit -and looking at the Sabres on a second leg of a B2B, they generally make a game of it so I am going to pass.
Predators vs Rangers
Both on a B2B. Not seeing anything from the data.
Penguins vs Canadiens
Nothing here.
Stars coming in off three high scoring wins, while the Leafs come in on a B2B, two losses in a row. Stars still overperforming generally – I’m a bit iffy about their metrics and it’s team dependent.
I mean Stars doing that versus Ducks/Sharks doesnt mean much – have to worry about overconfidence. But it was a nice performance against the Kings.
I’m not fully sold on it, but think there is enough to go with Stars in Regulation. Spent awhile looking into it in detail looking for something to really send it home. Couldn’t find that, but not enough to put me off either (although I’d prefer slightly better odds).
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -127 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/12/21 10:15:27 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Mammoth vs Jets
Neither team on a B2B. Neither coming in on the best form. CF & FF %s are tight. Goalscoring and xG is where the Mammoth have the advantage.
It’s a tight one, especially with how Hellebuyck can randomly show up big but I am going to take Mammoth incl OT/SO.
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -116 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/12/21 10:15:27 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oilers vs Knights
Nothing here.
Maybe over will come today at Pens-Habs.