Written by Graeme on Friday, December 5th, 2025
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Scott learned the hard way yesterday that I don’t say “Fuck the Islanders” just for fun – I legitimately mean it.
There is just something about them this season that – if you can figure it out then you’re gold – makes it seemingly impossible to predict any of their matches. I’d love to figure out the magic formula but I haven’t quite yet – other than “if it looks like they’ll win, bet the opposite” and “if it looks like they’ll lose, bet the opposite” but I don’t think that is a very sound strategy!
A heads up I am traveling this weekend. Tomorrow should be fine. Very likely I will pass on Sundays tips depending on time – plus hey B2B city anyway. I probably would have been fine, but with the F1 Abu Dhabi being such a huge race, I plan on getting to the airport extra early and plopping myself in a seat to be able to watch the entire race with a few airport pints.
Whether I do the tips during that time or not – we’ll see.
Let’s get onto Fridays smallish slate:
Devils vs Knights:
Devils come in on a brutal run. Knights not really much better not the sort of run where you want to back them on the road at 1.76 odds. By the data, slight edge to Knights but not enough for any value at that price.
Jets vs Sabres:
Jets another team not on a great run. These two just played so I wiill pass. By the data – Sabres should win. But we know the weirdness we see when teams play so close together.
Stars vs Sharks:
Stars performing well but it’s all about whether we can take them on the handicap. Their CF & FF % metrics aren’t impressive. Their GF% is, and their xGF….eh. Hefty xGA which makes it tight.
Feels like it’s borderline honestly. I don’t hate it at all but I feel like I’d be pushing it a bit.
Canucks vs Mammoth:
Nothing for this one.
Ducks vs Capitals:
Ducks coming off that brutal Mammoth win. They are a mess right now. Caps their fourth road game although they have been crushing it.
Unfortunately at the price I don’t love them here. There’s a few concerns like Ducks better CF% and FF%. xGA/60 over last 10 is pretty similar and goaltending has been helping the Caps. Ducks offense is underperforming and should likely get better.
At the odds I don’t like that one.
Not a much out there BUT cant
Ignore the low Team Totals on
-Buffalo o2.5
-Anaheim o2.5
-VGK/NJD or BUF/WIN o1.5 1st period