Written by Graeme on Friday, February 27th, 2026
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No plays yesterday. Things might be a bit disjointed for me over the next couple of days as I am traveling for the next like 9 days. Scott is hopefully going to handle things for me next weekend – but he might have things going on then as well. So if next weekend it’s “Sorry no tips” – that’s on me.
I’m also very data-driven these days, so going to be interesting after the Olympics break seeing if I spot any anomalies in current data that is going to play out over the rest of the season.
Let’s look at Fridays:
Capitals vs Knights
Capitals returned with a win over Philly, and the Knights with an impressive win over the Kings.
By the overall data this looks to be a tight one. Bookies have it right. However if the xG metrics from pre-break keep going here, we could see an over.
There’s definitely a “wait and see” approach in my mind but the Knights will be up for this with the Olympians back. I’m a bit concerned the line is this low but Over 5.5 Goals.
Ontario: 1.85 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.85 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -116 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.85 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2026/02/27 11:29:42 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Panthers vs Sabres
Panthers returned with a big W over the Leafs, and Buffalo a tight 2-1 win over the Devils. Another one where the bookies aren’t sure and have them as a coinflip basically.
Tricky one – I could see the over here although worried about the Sabres offense – they were hot before the break but not sure it’s continuing. I will pass.
Mammoth vs Wild
Mammoth returned with a loss to the Avs, and the Wild actually thumped the Avs.
By the metrics – it’s very close to a play on the Wild I think. Mammoth are more focused on making the playoffs so you have to think they’ll be up for it at home which is the only concern.
Wild looked really good against the Avs though and really up for it. Mammoth definitely looked a bit rusty, and I have to hope that akes a little bit longer for them to settle in.
Wild incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.19 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: 2.19 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.85 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2026/02/27 11:29:42 AM EST but are subject to change.)
(Odds correct as of 2026/02/27 11:29:42 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Ducks vs Jets
Ducks are looking to be that erratic team where with limited return data, I’m happy to hang off on them for a bit.
Let’s go Islanders! 🦞
I’m off the Florida game, interesting game, but not comfortable with that matchup. The lean is Over, but not taking it, anything could happen.
Minnesota is on a back-to-back so being cautious today, play money only, but………..
To WIN moneyline: Minnesota
Leans for the Minnesota game:
Full game OVER 5.0
Minnesota Team Total OVER 3.0 goals
Riskier: Quinn Hughes Over 0.0 powerplay points
Hughes is picking up powerplay points every game. Utah taking lots of penalties lately, and Minnesota is second least penalized team in the league.
I’d lean the Ducks to win, but not risking it. I don’t understand Winnipeg being so bad this year, but they are. Will the break let them finish the reason well? Too early to spot a trend.
Trade deadline important for so many teams, watching that very carefully. Friedman says there’s more sellers than buyers, so trades may cluster near the deadline. I’m expecting the games after the deadline to reduce the current level of parity in the league, as better teams get better and rebuilding teams focus on the draft picks.
Been working on a goal prop system and trying it publicly tonight.
Anytime Goal 2/27/2026:
C. Gauthier +160
M. Scheiffle +179
T. Thompson +140
M. Boldy +179
S. Reinhart +140