Written by Graeme on Saturday, January 10th, 2026
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14.
14 freaking games today.
They need to stop allowing new franchises.
It’s making my Saturday a nightmare.
At least we go in on a high note, with the Mammoth win last night. My favourite sort of win. Data checks all the boxes. Team wants to be a playoff team so they should win, and do. Nice and simple. Variance stays away.
Big win for the Caps. Glad I stayed away from the Kings due to those injuries. Will be interesting seeing if that affects their road confidence going forward.
Let’s tackle todays slate:
Bruins vs Rangers
I kind of screw my face up at both these teams. Bruins solid favourites. I wouldn’t disagree. I could see Rangers stealing it in a scrappy game – but yeah there is absolutely nothing here.
Penguins vs Flames
Results wise, Pens definitely look in for a shout here. Flames have really lost their way this last couple of games. By the data, Pens better CF & FF%, scoring more, concding less, xG generally matches up with that as does SCG. PDO about the same, HDCF% etc.
Similar to yesterday in that it generally checks the boxes, Pens if they want to be a playoff team they do the business here, plus they have a good home record. Malkin back and settled.
In the NHL, it’s never as clear cut as we hope. Yesterdays play worked out, but you just never know when variance is going to rear its ugly head. Or in this case, Stuart Skinner. But you gotta go with it.
Penguins in Regulation
Ontario: 2.04 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 2.04 Odds at TonyBet
USA: +103 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2026/01/10 10:39:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Avalanche vs Blue Jackets
Avs came out flying against the Sens and that Florida road trip is far in the rear view mirror.
It would have to be Avs -1.5. I like it. I want it. But the data juuuust isn’t there I think at 1.83 odds. Like it’s probably likely. But it feels a slightly -EV play. Although ugh – the empty net stats might justify it.
But how badly are they missing Landeskog? They didn’t have a great xG vs the Sens. It was just piss-poor goaltending. But they could face the same tonight.
This is one I am VERY on the fence about. We’re relying on Avs adjusting without Landy, and the Jackets goaltending continuing to be bad. So just a heads up about that. If it wasn’t for the empty net data, I’d probably pass. That just puts me over the edge here.
Avs -1.5
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -120 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2026/01/10 10:39:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Sharks vs Stars
I’m good not taking the Stars in regulation in this spot.
Sabres vs Ducks
oooh the Sabres should win here shouldn’t they? Results wise, Sabres in regulation should be a no-brainer. Let’s look at the data.
Ducks better CF% and FF%. GF% obviously ridiculous for the Sabres. xG% very close. Huh. Okay. Guess this isn’t a play. Over has potential but Ducks offense can be iffy and Sabres have the goaltending going for them at the moment.
Canadiens vs Red Wings
I was feeling a bit iffy about the Habs but after that Panthers win, it’s obviously changed my perspective. Going against a Wing steam who have taken two Canadian scalps and looking to make it three.
Habs better CF% and FF%. Better GF%. xG is a bit tighter. With the odds, I just don’t think it’s a play.
Senators vs Panthers
Sens on a bad run, looking to return home where they have been slightly better. I’d also throw coinflip odds on this. Looks very close with some erratic metrics that make this nothing I am interested in.
Hurricanes vs Kraken
Canes super heavy favourites. Come in on a good little run. But I cannot back them at -1.5 considering the Krakens results lately, and the Canes defensive metrics.
I don’t see anything in the data to point to a Kraken upset or anything unfortunately.
Flyers vs Lightning
Data is ineresting here as it generally leans the Flyers way other than Tampas hot offence and big SCGF difference. That offense makes it a little bit too high variance for me.
I tell you – Vladar in net, I really don’t hate Philly here in this spot, especially if they can get their PP sorted. But it’s not one I am rushing out to back either.
Leafs vs Canucks
Leafs solid favourites here. I’m not seeing it enough in the metrics. A few high variance issues in the xGF% and GF% categories that put me off a Leafs in regulation play.
Predators vs Blackhawks
No thanks. Nothing really in the metrics sticking out.
Wild vs Islanders
Fuck the Islanders. By the data, Wild win most likely but with their defensive metrics I wouldn’t back them here even if it was a team other than the Islanders.
Oilers vs Kings
Lean on the Oilers but not enough to back in regulation.
Knights vs Blues
Lean on the Knights but not enough to come close to backing them at -1.5.
These guy are such Isles haters! Smarten up!
lol
Sorry for ask, why u hate Isles?
We don’t. It’s just been a running joke here this season to say “Fuck the Islanders” because in November, there was a few game period where games involving the Islanders checked every box for a bet one side or the other, and it always went the complete polar opposite.
And whenever I entertain a bet on a game involving them since then, it continues to happen
Right now I hate the Penguins :-.)
I like your thoughts today , let´s go an bring som money home 🙂
And what about the Bruins? 🫣
Payback 🙂 I took Leafs in regulation + 1 point by Tavares. Good comeback after Penguins. See ya soon guys.