Written by Graeme on Sunday, January 18th, 2026
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A winning day yesterday with our lone play of the Leafs/Jets to go over.
Was definitely a little bit of a sweat after a goalless first period. Thankfully a big 2nd and 3rd period.
Nothing super noteworthy about yesterdays results. Definitely a few in hindsight I wish I had backed like Bruins, Oilers, Mammoth.
Capitals offense continues to be cold.
Three games today.
Stars vs Lightning
By the data not really seeing too much. xG makes the over a bit of a possibility but Stars inability to score and Tampas GA/60 puts me off. Nothing here but I’d lean Tampa. Bookies have the odds right I’ds ay.
Wings vs Senators
First instinct is the Wings. Rested, generally playing well. These two did play on the 5th and the Wings won 5-3 in Ottawa.
Sens had their streak busted in a tough OT game.
CF% and FF% largely on Ottawas way. xGA the same as well it’s just their goaltending that’s an issue. And it’s becoming a massive issue. Sanderson called them out huge.
You do wonder how a team reacts to a callout like that.
This on paper for me is a Wings bet. I’m just a bit concerned about the other metrics, and of course the callout. One of those where I will bet myself but just can’t advise. Sens for example better GF/60 and xGF/60 – the latter by a decent margin. If they get some luck on goaltending they take this.
Oilers vs Blues
Data certainly suggests Oilers in regulation is fine. I’m always a little bit put off though when one team is on a B2B. So I’m going to pass, but the advanced metrics back Oilers in regulation here.
