Written by Graeme on Saturday, March 14th, 2026
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Well yesterday was a bit of an annoyance in that both teams I was leaning towards and liked – Kings and Blues – both won. Wish I could have backed them – but relooking at the data and everything in hindsight – I’m, not loving it.
A little bit late today with this – just one of those work mornings where things that normally take 30 minutes take like three hours.
Hell even that last sentence I think I wrote about 35 minutes ago then stuff popped up ugh.
Let’s get into this big ass Saturday slate with quick write-ups:
Senators vs Ducks
Game started already. Sorry!
Capitals vs Bruins
Just recently played so I am fine with passing. My gut says the Caps take it but the data doesn’t back that up enough considering the odds.
Jets vs Avalanche
This is where this spot of the season is quite annoying because like the Avs don’t really need to win. Yeah yeah better seeding etc but I never find that much of a factor. Anyway the data doesn’t quite back Avs in regulation. Some basic data does but teh advanced metrics isn’t there.
Wild vs Rangers
Then you have this with two teams performing well, although one can’t make the playoffs and the other is in already. So it can hamper motivation. It shouldn’t as they are professionals, but it does.
By the metrics – Wild slightly better CF%, better FF%, scoring less slightly but conceding less, xG metrics are excellent. Just concerned about Rangers hot offense lately.
It’s a 1000th career game for Spurgeon so hopefully that motivates them. That alongside the shootout loss to the Flyers. Like I said – concern here is the Rangers and their confidence and hot offence but Wild seem like they are taking the run to the playoffs seriously, and the Jets & Flames have piss-poor xGA.
Wild in Regulation
Islanders vs Flames
Islanders just played so fuck em.
Sabres vs Leafs
Sabres looking to bounce back after that Caps loss. The metrics are definitely leaning towards that Sabres in regulation bet, but I’m concerned about the Leafs randomly getting it going due to that Matthews injury. I’ve seen so many teams do that – that’s the only thing stopping me from Buffalo today.
Devils vs Kings
Kings just played I am happy to pass.
Canadiens vs Sharks
Habs on a good run. These two just had a 12 goal thriller. Sharks also playing well as they are in the playoff hunt.
I think these two can put up the goals again.
Over 6.5 incl OT/SO
Lightning vs Hurricanes
Eh neither team really seems worth backing at the moment.
Flyers vs Jackets:
By the metrics I’d say the odds are on point.
Stars vs Red Wings:
I mean yeah everything points to the Stars in regulation here. Holy shit I have like six different people talking to me while I just want to get this done and have my bloody lunch – sorry, had to vent secretly there to y’all. I’m a bit surprised in regulation is worth it. My gut said this would be handicap – maybe they expect them to choke on their franchise record chase.
But I don’t see anything to stop that especially with Coppa nd Larkin out.
Stars in Regulation
That’s three plays and I am calling it there. Not even going to do best odds today I just want to get these out 🙂
