Written by Graeme on Friday, March 20th, 2026
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Alright it is Friday and I have two tips out of the five games taking place today.
However I do want to give a heads up; I haven’t had many bets since the Olympics and when they have, I’ve been ice cold. I went 0-2 a couple of days after it returned – that was primarily my bad in getting in too early I expect.
I went 0-3 last Saturday. And I mean you can blame that on variance such as Shesterkin showing up huge or Stars blowing a good lead etc but it was still 0-3 and still sucks.
So just a heads up about that before I go into the bets. I’m not letting it affect me in that I’m not shying away from making plays that to me make sense.
Leafs vs Hurricanes
Leafs coming in fresh but after that Islanders loss. Canes are just iffy at the moment. I mean by all accounts they could beat the Leafs in regulation here and the data 100% matches that. It’s that little frustrating spot where the metrics all line up with it but you have to wonder how motivates they are.
They do at least seem pumped about that Penguins win so yeah let’s go with it.
Canes In Regulation
Ontario: 1.75 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.75 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -128 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.75 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2026/03/20 9:40:40 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Capitals vs Devils
Caps playing generally well at the moment. But so are the Devils. Caps however have been very solid at home. Caps of course have the Playoffs in mind still although it’s going to be tough.
I think the home confidence can see them through. Caps incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -126 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2026/03/20 9:40:40 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blackhawks vs Avalanche
Fine passing on both of these teams right now. Avs odds are laughable.
Flames vs Panthers
Two other teams you can’t really hang your hat on.
By the data I lean the Panthers but on the road – eh.
Mammoth vs Ducks
Odds I think seem about right here. Ducks have such erratic metrics it makes it tough to back anything involving them.
I try to learn from every loss by reviewing what happened. At least 50% of the time, the result does make more sense than I thought beforehand, but some results, at certain times of the year, still can’t be explained, and this year they’re clustering for the NHL. Remember that in sports, teams will not reveal “play-through injuries”, which can have major impacts on game results, as can ongoing minor league callups, the flu, line changes, playoff time ego flipouts, schedule exhaustion, etc. This season for the NHL, I think schedule exhaustion is causing a lot of important problems and making others, including how to strategize, much more challenging for teams to deal with.
Example: Florida sucks this year, and at home, Edmonton doesn’t score a goal against Florida last night. I didn’t bet it, was leaning an Oilers victory, but the result makes perfect sense; the Oilers don’t want to waste their time on a heated grudge match that means nothing, against a non-playoff team. So they take the night off, save energy, take no injuries, etc. Oilers can afford to throw one game and avoid a high risk of injuries and wasting mental energy on a pointless venture.
The longer I do this betting nonsense, the more I understand how player motivation and energy levels are so critical to outcomes.
I don’t see much today. Colorado won’t care about playing Chicago. Calgary will be up for playing against former Flames, but Calgary’s very inconsistent and the Panthers suck. Utah and Anaheim = pass. The lean is for Carolina to beat the Leafs, and Harold Ballard is still shitting his pants. Such a strange city. Not taking the full game OVER with Washington/NJ because Washington could easily drag down the total, it’s all in a fog. With those kinds of descriptions, the props are also off the board.
Yep it’s very important to take the time to review each loss – look at if there was anything you missed, or if there was something you got blatantly incorrect etc.
Of course it can be a double edged sword – it can be common for people to look at their losses and find something to “justify” it and not learn from it 🙂
Yo man…. Just wanted to say cappers across the land have been dead wrong last week or 2…. and losses are piling up. Myself included…
I always tread lighter, before/after breaks, stretch into playoffs, start of season etc…
But what has transpired the last week or so has been absolutely mind fuckery and absurd. SJS and EDM 0 goals lastnight?? What in the actual f***???
Teams getting systems in play for playoffs, new trade fits, players playing different for a contract, etc… but man…
Rant done and im still light as f*** , like 1/4 unit light
Thanks mate good to hear that. Well – you know what I mean 😉 And yeah personally it doesn’t bother me too much. If I’m making picks I deem bad I will stop and really analyze it all etc. But sometimes variance is just what it is. I just wanted to be open that hey I consider myself on a bit of a cold run right now.
Yah i know what yah mean! LOL… losses suck but are all good and part of it… i do this for fun too, doesnt bother me the money really (of xourse we’d all love to get rich doing it and be right 100% of the time …. but i aint quitting my day job, LOL
More for me is i am finally at +60% in my picks / win rate and want to finish one season above 60% 🤞🏻..
Anyways,,, good picks today
My main rule for reading what cappers have to say is to insist that they give detailed descriptions for their decision. Just posting a pick, without explaining it, means nothing, I don’t care who it is. A lot of cappers post descriptions based on years-old info, long matchup histories, just enough to post a paragraph of irrelevant crap, that doesn’t include the long list of things to consider for any particular matchup and how things have been going, with injury/schedule comments. So right there, I’d say 70% of cappers can be ignored, and when they post their winning rate, you know they’re not making money off bets, they’re making money off charging for their comments. Do your own research and do lots of it!
It blows my mind when I see all the posts on reddit etc or other people tipping and they just say a play with zero write-up – and others accept that.
And then yes others are more focused on SEO and writing a bunch of crap where they actually don’t care if it wins or loses they’re just concerned about ranking etc.
I have 3 or 4 YouTube channels and of course your guys page where I go for NHL and NBA insights. I like to see if my initial leans line up and also it’s good to grab nuggets of info I may have not known or overlooked because let’s face it, deep diving so many games for stats is super time consuming!
The worst feeling is when I have a play I like and I end up going with what the “pros” said and lose the bet when my own play would have hit. I’ve been on a pretty incredible run lately but have noticed a lot of the community are on cold streaks so I’m thankful for that while it lasts.
That is good to hear – you are doing it the right away in that you make your own opinion, then look at others.
Of course it can be tricky when there are conflicting opinions etc – it’s why for the most part I try and deal in raw data. And when it’s not that I always make sure to clarify that.