Written by Graeme on Saturday, March 21st, 2026
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1-1 last night and truthfully – I’ll take that! Nice to get a “1” in the win column.
Won with the Caps over the Devils. A bit of a nervewracking game that’s for sure. Devils looked good in the 3rd.
Lost with Canes in regulation who slept one period, woke up one period, then went back to bed for the rest of it with nothing when 5 on 5. I think we may see them resting some players over the home stretch – Slavin in particular.
11 games today.
Penguins vs Jets
My gut says this is one of those “hope for the best and back it to go to OT” sorta games. By the metrics – I mean, Jets actually lead in a few spots. Penguins offense hotter but also conceding a fair amount.
Jets offense has been a bit poor despite a solid xGF so I don’t trust them, or the over. Like I said with the way both teams are right now – an OT bet ain’t the worst thing. I had an old OT system that I never use anymore as it can be too high variance, and it considers it +EV.
Predators vs Knights
Knights a bit of a dumpster fire but still favoured over the Preds. By team results and the Preds coming off a regulation win – I do kinda lean towards Nashville here. Unfortunately, the advanced metrics don’t go that way at all. The Knights xGF is big and they are gonna start scoring big – and after being shut out twice – you have to think they will be fired up.
Preds have a bad xGA too so they could light them up.
So no play due to all of the data, unfortunately. And I can’t back the other side because you can’t guarantee this cold offense gets going at these favoured odds.
Kings vs Sabres
Sabres been playing well and an interesting challenge as they head to LA. They have won both games on this road trip so far.
Kings still in the playoff hunt. This is a tight one with the SCGF% strongly in favour of Buffalo, but the rest of the data going the Kings way – although it’s pretty close.
Shutout streaks bother me a bit too because when that first goal goes in, you can see a team collapse. I think Buffalo has what it takes, but the Kings are coming off a vital point and sound up for this game.
Wild vs Stars
I mean form wise, absolutely nothing jumping out at me. Not much in the advanced metrics either. No play.
Sharks vs Flyers
Sharks on a skid. Flyers – I don’t even know what they are doing. I mean can you really call it a surge with so many OT tight wins? Both teams can still make the playoffs.
Honestly – if the advanced metrics went their way I’d take Philly here but they don’t. Other than goaltending they go the way of the Sharks. Nothing here.
Blue Jackets vs Kraken
Blue Jackets continue to perform like a well oiled machine. As someone who has became a fan of them over the last couple of years after a couple of trips to Columbus – I really love to see it.
They are still on the march into the playoffs. Kraken also still have a chance. I went into this hoping the data would go the Jackets way – and it does. CF%, FF%, SF%, GF%, xGF%, all 5% differences. SCGF even more.
Just one of those “checks all the boxes” ones for me. Especially with Jackets actually looking like a playoff team.
Jackets in Regulation
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -109 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2026/03/21 11:54:16 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canucks vs Blues
I mean I’d like to think the Blues get the job done here but the metrics aren’t anywhere close enough to bet them at those odds.
Canadiens vs Islanders
Fuck the Islanders. Big game for both teams in the playoff race. Neither really look like a plyoff team though do they? At least not compared to the Jackets. Surprised the bookies didn’t go coinflip odds here because that’s the way I feel about it.
The xG metrics make me like the potential over 5.5 here. Little bit concerned with the way things have been going for botht eams although on the 26th they went over.
Islanders sitting outside of a playoff spot for the first time in awhile will hoepfully spur them on. I don’t think Habs can control the game. It may be relying on an early goal – and I am definitely talking myself into this one – but I am going Over 5.5 Goals as I have to feel we see a lot of desperation from either side as soon as that first goal hits.
Sorokin does have a nice little record against the Habs but hopefully that isn’t a factor here. Definitely the one I am feeling the most iffy about today but I think there is enough to go with it. Just have to hope it isn’t one of those cautious games with both teams scared to play.
Doing the math on the odds, I decided against this. If I could get 1.80 I’d go with it.
Senators vs Leafs
Man I wanted to write “nothing here” but the more I look at the data, Sens -1.5 seems like a play. Much better CF % awnd FF%, obviously scoring so much more etc – xG matches up.
Leafs played last night too. Sens playing good. I mean Toronto haven’t been the worst lately but Ottawa did pound them 5-2 in Toronto.
Sens -1.5 just checks all the boxes.
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -113 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2026/03/21 11:54:16 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wings vs Bruins
Odds seem about right.
Oilers vs Lightning
I’m pretty good with staying away from the Oilers for the rest of the season honestly.
It’s rare to see a play where you’d like to unload half your bankroll and the jackets were that one today. It was hard to find an angle at -180 but boy did that one come through with flying colours. I wish all bets were so easy to read the tea leaves
lol right? Problem is there is enough of those “check all the boxes” games like the Jackets that don’t work out that can put me off that. But I 100% get it.
I love a team like that too at this time – just all pumped to make the playoffs, running super hot etc. I hope they go far.