Written by Graeme on Sunday, March 22nd, 2026
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A nice little 2-0 night last night.
Of course – I’m sitting here thinking it should have been 3-0. I regret pulling out of that Habs over. The game went as I expected with the early goals opening it up, and turning both teams into desperation mode.
Oh well at least I can be happy my analysis was spot on, even if it didn’t affect my bankroll in any way.
Won with the Sens -1,5 and Jackets in regulation. My favourite bets; no gut plays required. Just all the checkboxes checked, and both come in no sweat. More of those please.
Jets/Penguins went to OT so hopefully some of y’all backed that one as well. Preds also got the win – one of those days where it is quite nice to look back at the previous days analysis for sure.
Let’s look at todays – oh yikes, it’s a BIG Sunday slate. Not cool. Not cool.
Rangers vs Jets
Nothing here. Not much really jumping out in the metrics either. It’s a pretty close one.
Capitals vs Avs
The metrics definitely go the Avs way but n ot enough for me to back them in regulation. Caps tight GA/60 and their xGF/60. Could make a game of it especially as they have more to play for.
Penguins vs Canes
I mean honestly not even looking at the past matchups of these two, the over has merit. GF and xGF everywhere – it’s just Canes xGA that hurts it. Pens desperate of course a big game for them.
I mean based on that, and the two most recent games between the two, you have to just bet over 6.5 incl OT/SO and if it loses in a tight one goal affair- well, that is hockey.
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.90 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -115 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2026/03/22 9:18:40 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blackhawks vs Predators
A big “if you’re a playoff team you win this” game for the Preds. But being on the B2B on the road can be tricky. The metrics generally point towards them but their xGA is a concern. And Saros likely in net – that’s a big factor for me at the moment as he is good for conceding 3 a game.
Islanders vs Jackets
Fuck the Islanders. Hope the Jackets crush them. With both on a B2B I don’t really know what to think – could be another big desperation game. Metrics lean Jackets way. The B2B is putting me off as well as just wondering about the players moods going into this. Could be a weird energy vibe from both teams. Like I could see a little bit of overconfidence from the Jackets, while NYI are out there hunting for blood.
Stars vs Knights
I’d think the Stars here but cant back them in regulation based on that offense at the moment.
Ducks vs Sabres
Data quite tight for this one. Coinflip odds seem right.
Flames vs Lightning
If there’s any game where Tampa are going to lose to Calgary, it’s this one. Longish road trip, B2B, Flames rested and coming off a win. Tampa in the playoffs pretty much so an easy game to take off, while Flames might be in that ah we don’t care let’s go and just play hockey type of mood.
By the data and all that – I mean, I just can’t advise it, but at 2.50+ odds I’d say Flames are an +EV “hope and pray” bet.
Mammoth vs Kings
Nothing jumping out in the data for me.
