Written by Graeme on Friday, May 29th, 2026
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Well it is do or die for the Habs tonight.
One thing going for them is they really do seem a better team on the road than at home in the playoffs.
But the Hurricanes have a big 3-1 lead, and really do look good to wrap this up.
The advanced metrics for this series are not pretty at all.
Here are our thoughts:
Scott: Well the Canes, for the 3rd straight game, outshot the Canadiens and held them to a low shot total. In game 4 they made sure not to let it get to overtime with a 3 goal first period.
So now that the series is back in Carolina the Canes have a chance to win the series in front of their home fans and in their own barn. One thing I know is the Canes are going to fire a pile of pucks at Dobes so I’ll take a player prop here as I did pick the Canes -1.5 for the series which may happen tonight. He has 13 points in 12 games so I’ll go with Hall to register at least 1 point
Graeme: This Habs team definetely looks tired and Carolina are in their groove.
I’d like to back a Habs prop here as I still generally feel good about them on the road, but I do wonder if this is one step too far for them. It’s a big ask for this team.
For advanced metrics I’m focusing on Canes as a whole at home in the playoffs, and combining those with Game 2 metrics and giving that a bit of extra focus.
To be honest – not a LOT jumping out. Svechnikov to get a point looks good but the odds are not. Similar for Jarvis. Let’s go with Svechnikov anytime scorer at 3.00.
Puckline season at its best! Hope you jumped on the wagon further back 🥳🤑
I don’t see how Montreal can change it’s methods so much that it can solve the issue of needing to double or triple the number of shots on net, in order to get the goals needed. They look tired and simply don’t have the methods so far to stay in the offensive zone. Both teams can skate fast enough to shut down the other team, but Carolina still gets across the blue line and to the net, while Montreal hasn’t so far. Desperation may give Montreal a few good successful deeks, but I think this is a Carolina win.
Add in the very big issue for Carolina of wanting the extended rest period before facing Vegas, and the desire to win this particular game will be peaking and focusing Carolina’s efforts.
The combination of two teams at peak pressure will likely have the first two periods tight, fast and low scoring. I wouldn’t be surprised if at any point we see a flurry of Carolina goals, as in the previous game. Could be Montreal is understandably simply suffering some exhaustion. There won’t be a flurry of Montreal goals in return.
Next season’s Canadiens are going to be a monster team! This experience will be so good for them!
Carolina win in regulation, about x1.65.
I’m also putting a little less money on the Carolina puckline win, I think it’s like 75% likely to happen.