Written by Graeme on Thursday, November 13th, 2025
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Four games yesterday.
The Sabres slump continues, with the Mammoth rocking them 5-2.
Oilers got a tight 2-1 win in OT over the Flyers, and the Devils vs Blackhawks was a good one that went to OT, with the Devils just beating them and ending their streak.
Rangers had a big 7-3 win over Tampaw.
10 games today. Another busy weekend in the NHL overall, as they cram in as many games as they can before the Olympics.
Red Wings vs Ducks
Red Wings come in on a bad run. The Ducks had that bad loss to the Avs. So it’s a bit of a concern if they can bounce back from that.
The Ducks have been a bit annoying for me as I’ve mentioned them a few times in the past week or two, and backed them personally but held back from an official pick despite the odds.
Now they are dogs in a spot where you’d think they could do the business, but you wonder how they will react to that loss. Plus the issue is that their offense needs to be firing and is this the start of a dry spell?
Thankfully – this isn’t as clear cut as I would have liked. I started writing this assuming the metrics were going to be screaming it was a play and I’d have to fall into this trap of backing a team as things go on a down spin for them.
But the Wings better CF% and FF% by a decent amount, better SF%. Obviously Ducks better than them on the basic metrics but even xGF% Wings are better.
Not remotely close to a play.
Senators vs Bruins
Sens hosting the Bruins and they are on a nice point run at the moment. These two played just a few days ago so it’s a pass from me. By the data – eh, Sens are favourites for sure but I will not be remotely surprised of the Bruins take the win. Less a “value bet” and more a “slightly confident pure gamble bet”.
Canadiens vs Stars
Habs reeling after that brutal Kings loss, but slightly favoured here. Dallas have been disappointing this year; I think it was last season where around this time they were my easy “go to” pick.
Metrics have me with a slight lean towards the Stars, although the Habs will be out for a redemption game. They’re just a very, very hard team to back at the moment, and this is a tricky spot. If their odds were better like maybe 2.10 I think I’d take them. Habs are rolling with Dobes tonight who is n ot someone you want to mess around with.
Blues Jackets vs Oilers
I said it the other day – but I can’t remember a time where there has been so many “unbackable” teams in the NHL. There are so many games where I open it up and am just like “ugh”.
Anyway these two just played so it’s an easy pass for me. Bookies have them as a coinflip as they have no clue either. looking at the metrics – yeah it is pretty damn close. I think gun to my head I’d take the Jackets.
Leafs vs Kings
Leafs come in on a torrid 3 game run where they have scored a decent amount – but conceding 5 per game. That’s not ideal.
Kings meanwhile come in having won two on the trot on this road trip.
Man – today feels so extra TOUGH. Alright let’s see here – Kings CF% and FF% much better. Same with SF%. Scoring less but still a solid GF/60 and xGF%. Leafs defense is poor as is their goaltending.
So it’s a tricky one but I am definitely leaning towards the Kings especially with the Leafs fairly beaten up. Kings have a solid road record.
However I am going to be straight up; while we don’t HAVE to make plays if we don’t like anything, sometimes we feel the urge to. After going through all of the above games and having no plays yet, I start to worry that there won’t be any plays for the day.
So that affects things mentally and sometimes I can’t tell if I actually like a play enough to officially back, or if I’m doing it just so it’s not a ‘no picks’ day.
But I do think there is enough here to at least rationalize the Kings?
Kings incl OT/SO if Kuemper in net
This was a play at 1.80 odds but since writing this then the rest of the tips, and going back to get up to date odds they dropped to 1.74. So not a play.
Panthers vs Capitals
Both teams coming in on the back of wins. By the advanced data, Panthers the better side although GF data isn’t good.
I have my concerns such as Panthers being leaky. But this does look to be a nice little spot for them.
Panthers incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -120 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/11/13 10:55:12 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Avalanche vs Sabres
In theory Avs should clean their clocks. Although watch the team that just blasted the Oilers 9-1 lose 3-2 or something. Anyway at the odds I don’t really want to back the handicap but they likely cover based on data.
Flames vs Sharks
Flames come in on a torrid losing streak but are strong favourites here. Based on the metrics – yeah that should be the case. Not a team I’d back – but other than the Sharks offense overperforming to a ridiculous degree they have nothing else going for them.
Golden Knights vs Islanders
Fuck the Islanders.
Kraken vs Jets
Nothing here. By the data – Kraken are probably very, very slight value but it really has that “gamble” aspect to it.
To WIN in regulation: Anaheim
Leans: San Jose wins moneyline
I’m looking at a few prop bets with the odds not great, while the chances of winning are high, so will decide later.
I’m off the Toronto full game Over because Matthews is out and with Marner gone they look like either Nylander carries the team or they lose. Domi is putting on a show but he’s not going to carry the team’s fortunes on his back (watch him get a hat trick tonight). The Leafs may not contribute much tonight on the score board.
Can’t back Colorado at home because when playing the league’s worst teams they often take the night off and that’s a huge risk tonight.
Can’t take the Oilers (or the Over) tonight, as they’re such a fickle producer. Columbus has a flu bug going through the team right now, but even with that, I have no idea what the Oilers are. Oilers defense and goaltending are not NHL quality. If Columbus shows up weak, the winner is a pickum and the score could be very low. Not touching it.
Calgary is a mixture of 1) aging, 2) too young and 3) couldn’t give a shit players. They need trades and a new coach. I’d say half the Flames are playing OK 1/2 of the time and the rest are taking a nap every game. They’re small, slow, showing next to no determination to control the puck. They already deserve to lose and San Jose is playing very well. If San Jose really wants these two points, then just deliver the energy.