Written by Graeme on Friday, November 14th, 2025
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1-0 last night, as the Panthers duly delivered.
Could have been 2-0, if the Kings odds hadn’t changed. However with them going to OT, that made it an -EV play even if I had backed it at 1.80, so I can’t get too mad.
Very glad I avoided the Ducks trap yesterday. Thank you advanced metrics.
Many Knights fans will also be joining me in saying “Fuck the Islanders” after that bad beat for them last night.
How about those Habs? Yikes. Dobes who broke you?
Quite a few of the value play notes etc came in yesterday which is nice to see, as it’s a good indicator we have enough data off the metrics and it’s right in that sweet spot.
Let’s look at todays:
Predators vs Penguins
Global series so I won’t back. Preds slight dogs. By the data, looks to be about correct odds.
Hurricanes vs Canucks:
Canes coming in off that loss to Washington and looking to get another winning streak going. Heavy, heavy favourites. Would have to be handicap. Canucks are a bit of a feisty mixed bag lately.
Canes aren’t worth the risk on the handicap due to their defensive and goaltending metrics. The over is definitely slightly tempting here but it looks to be a tight one. No play for me.
Blues vs Flyers
Nothing going here. Philly are all over the place and the data is very tight. While Philly are slightly better in spots the Blues have the better GF and xGF/60. No idea how this will go, no play.
Mammoth vs Islanders
Fuck the Islanders.
(By the data, Mammoth should win but I have enough concerns about their GA/xGA metrics to not back them in regulation)
Was hoping to see Canes in regulation at decent odds… meh…
I do think Kochetkov O19.5 saves to be a decent one here and that seems low given the shot stats for both teams lately
Hockey at 2pm?? LOL…