Written by Graeme on Saturday, November 15th, 2025
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Europe was treated to a low-scoring game yesterday, as the Preds defeated the Penguins in OT. Actually, all games went to OT yesterday. I remember years ago I’d do a parlay to bet every game on a night going to OT. Wish I kept that up. It wasn’t +EV but it would have made nights like last night bloody intense.
The Canes defense struggled, which I mentioned would be an issue if considering the handicap, and they squeaked an OT win over the canucks.
Flyers/Blues decided to play without nets for a really fun game.
It’s Saturday and the usual fun slate of oh just 13 games. Why not.
Let’s get dug in:
Panthers vs Lightning:
Tampas injuries are affecting them. By the metrics they’re the better side but it’s a hard spot to back here.
Wild vs Ducks:
Is the Ducks honeymoon period over? Wild aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire. I’d actually like to bet the Wild here to be honest – feels like a good spot for them. But the metrics really aren’t backing that up as much as I’d like.
And the concern is last couple of games Wild haven’t been scoring, and you sorta need to score against the Ducks.
It’s going to be a very interesting clash of styles game, with the possession-orientated Wild versus the rushing Ducks. Ducks have Granlund and Strome in the squad and slowly fitting in which can be both good or bad as it can take a bit to get adjusted.
Wild also big game tomorrow against Knights. Ducks last game before homestand so could throw it all here.
I’ll reluctantly pass here but this does look like a nice little spot for the Wild. Feel like if their odds were better I’d be all over it.
Canadiens vs Bruins:
Habs hefty favourites here despite two absolutely atrocious performances. Bruisn had a nice run ended in Ottawa. Definitely at face value, lik ethe Bruins for value. Slightly better CF% and FF%. SF% is a wash, Bruins much better GF% but aaah that xGA/60 of 3/63 is so grotesque.
I mean – I think there is enough to justify a Bruins play here isn’t there? The odds are great, the metrics aren’t too bad at all – what they lack in xGA they mostly make up for in xGF. The Habs are coming off a BAD game where they got destroyed AND shut out.
Now that can mean they are a resilient bunch and can have a big bounce back game. And with Newhook out that can help a team on the first game after where they sort of bounce back together.
So those are obviously concerning factors, but they are more theoretical about mentality. I’m fine taking the risk. I’m well aware this one could result in a loss, but think there is enough value on that Bruins line.
Bruins incl OT/SO if Swayman in net
Ontario: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.41 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +141 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.41 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2025/11/15 11:15:29 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Red Wings vs Sabres:
Wings bounced back from a losing skid to beat the Ducks 6-3. Sabres are a mess at the moment although getting the goals going.
My first instinct is the over, but my concern is it’s 6.5 and the Sabres offensive metrics aren’t good. Heck even the Wings aren’t that good either – you’re basically betting it on poor defense/goaltending and I have made that mistake more.
I shall pass.
Hurricanes vs Oilers:
Reallly hesitant to bet anything involving the Oilers at the moment, and the Canes on a B2B with a lot of off-brand performances lately? Eh. My gut says Oilers take the win here but there’s really nothing to back that up – even the metrics are vastly in the Canes favour.
Senators vs Kings:
Bookies have this close to a flip. Definitely one of those games where I have zero idea of the outcome, and have to rely on metrics to see if there is anything.
And there mostly is! Kings better CF% and FF% and SF%. Scoring less but conceding less. Kings have a beastly xGF/60 even if they aren’t capitalizing, but the Sens are over-performing offensively.
I like the Kings here. My concern is they have played a lot of road games and could be wary. Not just this recent batch but they spent a large part of October on the road.
However on the flip side; they have been a beast on the road. That sort of thing can just add confidence to a team. And Byfield is even on fire at the moment!
Kings incl OT/SO if Kuemper in net
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.93 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -107 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.93 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2025/11/15 11:15:29 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Capitals vs Devils:
Ooof. Two messy teams. Devils actually at a decent price all things considered.By the metrics – slight edge to them even. Not one I feel good backing but you know if they go to OT they’re good for it, so probably value on that line.
Blue Jackets vs Rangers:
Not seeing much here. Very close game and odds are on point.
Blackhawks vs Leafs:
I’d love to back the Hawks but they are just iffy in a couple of spots like their xGA/60, and the Leafs offense is flying. Blackhawks have a really low xGF/60 over last 10 at 2.7 and I don’t think they can keep up.
Stars vs Flyers:
Stars getting their mojo going? Big favourites here against a feisty Philly team who are on a B2B. The Stars offense is still a bit too jekkyl and hyde fo my liking. If Philly weren’t experts at forcing games to OT I might just take Stars in regulation here though.
I do think they’ll get the job done but it’s just hard to book looking at their CF/60 which over the last 10 is still horrific.
Blues vs Knights:
Nothing for this one. I’d love to back the Blues but the metrics don’t swing that way at all.
Kraken vs Sharks:
Books odds seem about right here.
Flames vs Jets:
Flames got out of their rut with a win over the Sharks. Man I will be honest – as home dogs at 2.20 odds, I think there is actual value here. CF%, FF% all match up well. xG is a bit of a high variance with both metrics.
They’re not really scoring but they’re not conceding much either.
Both have already played each other twice with the Jets winning both of them – but man, I quite like the Flames here. Am I crazy? I might be.
You know what? Maybe I am. But diving into more metrics such as the 5vs5 I cannot get away from Calgary in this spot.
Flames incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.19 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +119 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.19 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2025/11/15 11:15:29 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Tie in Regulation? How about LA/Ottawa?
Many teams are in shifting trends, it’s crazy out there, kids! I’m interested in seeing what Edmonton getting Hyman back will produce, but game 1 of his return may not show sparks on the score sheet, even though I expect the team to be on high adrenaline today. They need a premium offense because their defense is on strike half the time.
To WIN moneyline: Detroit
This is because Buffalo just had 1 day off after a back-to-back, they are full of defensive holes and have not yet won an Away game, while Detroit, 6-3-0 at home, had 3 days off before wiping out Anaheim and had a day off after that, while still at home for today’s game. Detroit officially has no names on the injured list, so the rest will be great relief for the energy and bruises. Detroit needs to gather points to stay in the playoff hunt, as Florida, Toronto and Tampa are still below them in the Division, but that’s not expected to remain the case for that trio, while Montreal and Ottawa may at some point drop in the standings. This well-rested situation for Detroit is a great gift not to be wasted!
The first thing I do when scanning a new slate of games in Hockey or any other major sport is scan the matchups when the lines come out and see if anything jumps out at me immediately based off win / loss record and recent play.
Jersey and Boston were an instant “hmmmmm”. That’s how I felt about Sharks and Ducks before their runs got stopped.
Red Wings also looking good atm and Dallas looking worth a play.
For those who can’t land on a side pick some games with a higher likelihood or goals being scored and take some guys to get points. Point props are one of the few sports betting props where you get 2 chances to win because it’s a goal or assist. I’ve had pretty good success taking guys who have had one or more point in their last 5 games and parlaying 2-4 until the odds get to your liking
And and Graham have you noticed the Islanders have went undefeated since that piss poor effort when you swore off them?
If you went contrarian and bet them every game thinking that would be a turning point, you’d be crushing it lol fuck the Islanders
Yesterday was a weird one for me… i can’t see anything so i bet a player prop. Love goalie saves props. Fucking Kotchetkov lets 3 in on first 5 shots , Vancouver gets 17 shots in a game that goes to OT,,, 17 shots ?? LOL bookies knew something I didnt, LOL 🤯