Written by Graeme on Saturday, November 1st, 2025
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Well it looked like everything was set up for the Jays to steal the game in the bottom of the 9th, and then the game ended in an extremely underwhelming way, forcing a game 7. 55 seconds to go from 0 outs to 3 outs. Classic Toronto sports.
Imagine paying like $6000 for tickets or whatever for that, only for that wet fart of a finish, then to know there’s another game the next night?
In hockey, the Avs got the win as the metrics suggested. The Islanders WERE a nice value bet against the Caps as it turned out, and I’m disappointed it was a B2B as that was what kept me off them primarily.
It’s Saturday. 8 billion games. You know the deal. As always, you can use this as advice or things to think about, but make up your own mind for each play. You don’t want to blindly follow (especially with a poor start by myself); you want to learn so you can make decisions by yourself.
Bruins vs Hurricanes
Canes heavy favourites but not really a team I am rushing to back on the road in regulation right now – or at all. Especially with Bruins finding a bit of form. By the numbers, Canes should win but it doesn’t match up with the in regulation odds.
Jets vs Penguins
The Jets heavy favourites here despite a good record by the Pens going into this one. Very evenly matched on the advanced metric front. Jets have the GF% but Pens better in xGF%.
It’s weird how perspective is as there are a lot of spots like this where I would say it’s a clear value play and back it. But then there are spots like this where I just look at it and feel it’s too much of a gamble. Despite clearly value odds, it just feels like an +EV coin flip I don’t want to take.
Predators vs Flames
Very close one and not seeing anything.
Sharks vs Avalanche
Not taking a team on a B2B on the road at -1.5, which is what I’d have to do based on the odds. The metrics probably make it 0EV not factoring in B2B.
Panthers vs Stars
Panthers much better in the CF/FF departments. GF the same, xGF pretty much the same. Panthers pip them in SCGF.
Stars have had some better results lately for sure. But I dunno – although it’s probably close to 0EV, I just quite like the Panthers here.
Panthers incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.79 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 1.79 Odds at TonyBet
USA: -125 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/11/01 9:31:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canadiens vs Senators
Nothing really jumping out at me based on either teams form going into this. Sens better on most advanced metrics. Their goaltending is the only big issue for them, plus some real high variance games that affect the metrics. I’ll begrudingly pass. I’d kind of like to take the Sens here but erratic performances all round make this highly volatile.
Blue Jackets vs Blues
Speaking of erratic…..you have the Blue Jackets. This is one of those weird ones where a lot of the signs point to the over 6.5, but I am hesitant.
Let’s see – Jackets generally good on offense while conceding a bunch. Couple of anomalies. Blues in the same boat. FF/60 is low for both but solid CF% and the Jackets SF & SA should see a lot of shots on net. Both teams scoring around what they should be expected. Blues their goaltending is the issue more.
Sundqvist in an interview was trying not to hang the goalies out to dry and was blaming more the team. Hopefully even if they make some adjustments, that won’t solve anything (and tbh it IS on the goalies).
One of those I’m not really in love with, but the data does seem to back it up enough.
Blue Jackets/Blues Over 6.5
Ontario: 1.92 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 1.92 Odds at TonyBet
USA: -108 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.91 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/11/01 9:31:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flyers vs Leafs
One of those where I just want to pass immediately on and don’t even want to waste time looking at data. The data makes it look messay anyway. Slight lean towards the Leafs I guess but their odds make them not worth a play.
Wild vs Canucks
Two other completely unbackable teams right now I’d say. The metrics are all over the place. Honestly at 2.40 the Canucks probably have a small bit of value here but you’re a better man than me if you can bet them here.
Sabres vs Capitals
Alright let’s see – Caps played last night and shit the bed. Buffalo – I mean you’re talking a nice little points run here since mid-October. Just the one in regulation loss to the Habs.
Unfortunately, the metrics are way too in favour of the Caps almost across the board. No play, although my non-metrics brain says the Sabres are worth a wee punt here.
Kings vs Devils
Nothing here at all too close to call.
Oilers vs Blackhawks
Yeah I am not touching the Oilers at the moment lol. I’m not even sure if you could call the Hawks a value play. I looked out of curiousity and it’s like eh.
Kraken vs Rangers
Rangers favoured but the metrics don’t really lean that way. I mean they don’t lean against it – feels more of a 50/50 type game I’d say. Not really against a play on the Kraken here but I’d need a bit more positive metric data to back.
