Written by Graeme on Thursday, November 20th, 2025
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I am enjoying the Edmonton Oilers so much right now.
Going to Washington. Scoring 4 goals. And losing. Just amazing.
They have some serious issues that they need tos ort out.
Ducks got the win yesterday over the Bruins in a tight one. Flames got a surprisingly big win over Buffalo. Frustrating one for Scott yesterday as the Wild only had a handful of chances but made the most of them.
Stupidly massive slate today. Let’s get to it:
Leafs vs Jackets
Man by the metrics this could go any way. My gut says the Jackets but CF% and FF% they are much better. Scoring less but conceding less. Better xG metrics stats.
I cannot in good conscience take the Leafs tonight. But my gut says they win this one.
Ugh.
This is one of those gut plays that I cannot shake. One that I realize I’ll be kicking myself if I don’t take.
Pretty much ALL the data suggests Jackets here, just an FYI. This is going against the data.
Leafs incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/11/20 11:12:32 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Panthers vs Devils
Panthers flying pretty high at the moment. Devils a bit mid as the kids say with what 1 regulation win in their last like 11 or 12 games?
But they can make things tricky and I’d need to take Panthers in reg due to the odds and all those OTs are a bit off-putting. The metrics make that a big tight anyway. Shall pass.
Flyers vs Blues
I lean the Flyers but its not overwhelming and 1.80 odds is where I’d land too.
Red Wings vs Islanders
Wings on a run just now. Obligatory fuck the Islanders. By the data, its a Wings win but the 1.74 odds seem about right and I don’t see any value. Hopefully they get the win though as it means I may be able to consider betting Islanders games again.
Canadiens vs Capitals
Not touching this one. With recent results you’d lean Caps, but the metrics are 50/50 and the Habs are heavily favoured.
Lightning vs OIlers
The Oilers offense makes it very scary to bet against them despite their various issues. By the metrics, Tampa slight advantage in CF & FF%. Scoring more, conceding less (understament of the year), xG data matches up.
Sometimes you just gotta clench tight and suck it up.
Lightning in Regulation
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/11/20 11:12:32 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blackhawks vs Kraken
Hawks on a great run. I hope that continues for another couple weeks as I’ll be heading to Leafs vs Hawks next month.
By the metrics, they are unfortunately not a play. Only thing they really have going for them is overperforming big time offensively and goaltending. That will come crashing down at some point.
Avalanche vs Rangers
Avs the only team you can really consider backable at the moment in the NHL. We would have to take them in regulation. By the metrics – man it is a bit close. I’m a tad worried about Rangers SCGA/60 which is a very low 1.67 last 10 and lowest ll season in the NHL. Not much recent data for similar for Avs – I don’t know if I am just gunshy with Colorado at the moment but can’t quite pull the trigger on this one.
Mammoth vs Knights
Close one and bookies odds seem about right.
Sharks vs Kings
Don’t feel confident enough in the Kings to take them in regulation here. Long road trip, Sharks have made it difficult for teams to score at times.
Canucks vs Stars
Dallas are certainly getting into that backable territory. I lean them here but not enough to take them in regulation.
Ducks vs Senators
This one is very close. I think there is small value on the Ducks at 2.05 but not enough to back.
Back-to-back and rest situations tip the scales for a couple matchups:
To WIN moneyline: Avs, Leafs and Lightning.
Full game OVER 5.0: Leafs/Jackets
Lean: Avs win on the puckline
I consider Tampa the more certain outcome. The Oilers are one mess of an operation and Tampa is rounding into form.
Columbus had 1 day off after a back-to-back and it’s their 4th game in 6 days. That’s a tough slog. Toronto, injuries and all, is reasonably well rested for how this season is set up, and they have found some kind of scoring. They’re at home. They still scare me as a better.
Oilers are playing G2 of a back-to-back and it’s 3 in 4 days for them too.
Of note:
Philly – just had 4 days off
Ottawa – just had 4 days off
Avs – just had 3 days off
I get the feeling there’s more available but I have limited time today.