Written by Graeme on Friday, November 21st, 2025
Follow @BetNHL
An 0-2 last night.
Went with my gut and backed the Leafs to win. Despite the result, I didn’t mind the play. I thought they were very unlucky in that game and were the dominant team especially for the first two periods. How they didn’t go in that first period a couple of goals up I do not know.
Had the Lightning in regulation versus the Oilers. That’s one of those games where you use it as the perfect example of the variance in hockey, and how difficult betting on this sport can be. Nothing we can do there.
Let’s quickly move on from that to Fridays games.
Penguins vs Wild
Penguins return from their trip to Europe, looking to get a win over the Wild. I am unsure about that one due to the long layoff of the Pens. By the data nothing too much really jumping out tooo much. Pens I’d definitely make them favourites and 1.80 might be value, but with the break I’m happy to pass.
Sabres vs Blackhawks
Blackhawks showed the regression offensively I expected last night. On a B2B now against a – I want to say piss-poor Buffalo team but man they have made some games of it. By the data – I really don’t know. I don’t think Hawks should be as heavy underdogs as they are, but I can’t justify backing them at all here.
Jets vs Hurricanes
Jets coming off that solid Jackets win. Canes it’s been some tight ones lately. By the advanced metrics it’s all Canes but I was talking about someone with that recently in the comments where Carolina are a juggernaut in the metrics but you have to go beyond that for them.
Looking at GF% and SCGF% and recent results I am not seeing enough to back the Canes in this spot.
Kings vs Bruins
Kings on the B2B after losing to the Sharks in OT. Bruins decent dogs here but they are coming off a nice win against Anaheim and have been quite solid on the road.
Unfortunately, the metrics make them a clear no-play.
No bets today.
Bruins are solid on road and rested BUT coming off a loss to Anaheim… does that change your mind with data heavily in LA favour…
Some opinions about over at Sabres-Hawks?thanks
Sorry mate been super busy today just getting to this now.
I’d be concerned with:
– Sabres low xGF (below 3.00 last 10) and their very low GF/60
– Hawks with a very low xGF like I said earlier they have to regress
– Despite a piss-poor xGA, Blackhawks goaltending has generally been on point.
So not one I am a fan of, unfortunately.
I can’t see much.
Prop: Winnipeg Scheifele OVER 0.0 points
Jets play well against good teams, and they’re at home where they’re solid.
Agree with all the picks bossman, great picks all of em and good luck!