Written by Graeme on Saturday, November 22nd, 2025
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No plays yesterday.
Glad I stayed away from the Pens after their break, as they appeared to still be on vacation mode, getting thumbed by the Wild 5-0.
Blackhawks apparently borrowed Stuart Skinner for the night, as the Sabres rocked them 9-3.
Canes/Jets was the tight one that I thought, and Bruins got the win in OT in a tight one.
Let’s get onto Saturdays slate. As always with these big schedules – forgive me if I don’t spend too much time discussing a no play.
Wings vs Jackets:
By the data – odds seem on point.
Islanders vs Blues:
Fuck the Islanders. By the data – yeah the odds seem mostly on point. The interesting metric is xGA where Islanders have a really bad 3.45 compared to Blues 2.74. But probably not a concern for anyone backing the Islanders with the Blues woeful offense. Will be surprised here if the Islanders don’t get the win.
Panthers vs Oilers:
After the nonsense from that last game I’m happy to pass on Edmonton at the moment. By the data – if that last game hadn’t happened, I think I would take Panthers here without any problem.
Penguins vs Kraken:
Passing on Pens for a bit until they settle in after last nights debauchle.
Sharks vs Senators:
By the results and being at home, I am surprised Sharks are such dogs. But the metrics lean pretty heavily towards the Sens here so that makes sense. Honestly I’ve been wondering what is going on this season with the odds causing us to have less picks, and it really seems like the linesmakers are factoring in advanced metrics a lot more last season than previous seasons.
If I compare data from past seasons to the current sets, I’ve noticed some drastically different odds in spots. Like this one would be a lot closer odds wise. So that will be something to explore and consider as the season goes on.
Canadiens vs Leafs:
Habs maybe a little bit too heavily favoured for my liking but that’s about all I see here. If over line was 6 I might be convinced to back it primarily due to how these two teams can play against each other, but at 6.5 it’s a pass due to below 3.00 xGF for both.
Capitals vs Lightning:
Caps on a good little run with a couple of mental games. These two played recently and Tampa won 3-2. Caps slight favourites, Tampa also playing overall well.
Unfortunately, not seeing anything in the data here. It really does look like a proper 50/50 game.
But there might be something in the over actually which is at 6. Especially if Caps continue the way things are going. Both teams xGF match up. GA/60 is a bit low overall last 10.
Tamps offense I guess is what concerns me too. They have been quite hot/cold leaning more on lukewarm.
I think there is enough here to go with Over 6 incl OT/SO and hope that the Caps continue to play the way they are.
Ontario: 1.94 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 1.94 Odds at TonyBet
USA: -104 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/11/22 10:56:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flyers vs Devils:
One of those “Yeah I have zero idea” games ha. Let’s see if the data has anything. CF% and FF% slight advantage Devils. xGF% the same, GF% less. Yeah bookies have them at 1.83 and I think that’s close to right – I’d make them extremely slight favourites as well.
Predators vs Avs:
I feel like the Avs will be a heavily bet team tonight, based not just on their performances, but also the Preds returning from holidays and how that worked out for the Pens. I’m going to play it safe and pass as there can be some real weirdness, and metric wise it isn’t as clear cut as you’d think.
Mammoth vs Rangers:
Not seeing anything here.
Ducks vs Knights:
It’s amazing how fast things can go off the rails for a team eh? Ducks never solved their defending issues and its came back to bite them.
I have nothing here. Odds seem about right to me.
Flames vs Stars:
I was hoping to squeeze in a play on the Stars here but the metrics don’t jive with it. Flames have quite good advanced metrics so can be a tough one to bet against.
A few games seem to look obvious, considering how teams are doing and the situational factors:
To WIN moneyline: Dallas and Colorado
To WIN reverse puckline of +1.5: Florida
Full game OVER 5.0: Leafs/Canadiens
Lean: Tie in Regulation: Utah game
Nashville is a shit team again and for Colorado to lose they would have to NOT wear their own skates, blindfold the goalie, not have eaten for three days, have the flu and get a game misconduct every shift. Colorado is reasonably well rested and their look-ahead isn’t particularly threatening, so energy and focus won’t be a problem. Colorado’s Away record is excellent. Not going for the puckline, but it’s quite possible. Could be a classic blowout of 8-1, or could go 4-1. Do I have faith in Colorado every game? No, but they’re playing well and look very determined and confident.
The Flames are cinders this season and their absentee dabbling owners are on par with the legendary Arizona Coyotes. Dallas has been playing VERY well and are reasonably well rested. Flames won against Buffalo because Buffalo played like drunks with their legs tied together for the last half of that game. Thompson would be a league superstar on most .500+ teams. So would Coronato, Kadri, Coleman, and a few more Flames!
I can’t see the Oilers winning with Florida finding it’s way lately, and the Oilers have Skinner in net tonight. The risky thing is that this is a matchup of the last two Stanley Cup Finals, so adrenaline may replace all the trends and indicators. No bets, I’m thinking, but Florida is extremely unlikely to lose the reverse puckline at home this week against the Oilers. Nice add to a parlay.