Written by Graeme on Friday, November 28th, 2025
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Sorry for the lateness in these. One of those days with a few fires at work I had to put out. And of course it all occurs when there is a ton of early games.
Missed two let me see if I can blast through the others. Don’t worry while the write-ups are short, any plays I have invested the usual amount of time into.
Everyone coming in after a day off. As far as I can see from previous seasons that doesn’t have much relevance. Like there’s no specific trends which stand out. Would be nice if there was eh? “Oh bet all home teams they win 95% of the time”. Would make life a lot easier.
Wild vs Avs:
Bothers me I haven’t been on the Avs much during this run but this doesn’t appear to be a spot for it. Metrics a bit tight comes down to Wilds goaltending more than anything else and if the Avs can get the goals.
Ducks vs Kings:
Hmmm I kinda like Kings here. The concern ofc is that the Ducsk offense can go nuts. But let’s see. CF% and FF% are close but edge to Kings. Kings scoring less but conceding so much less. It’s really down to that Kings offense and if they can actually score.
Kings been great on the road so no concerns there. The PROBLEM is that against teams with a similar xGA their offense has struggled a bit, like the Bruins. Although they did score against Sharks/Leafs – then conceded a fair bit too.
What about the Ducks? Against the Wild with a similar GA/60 they got shut out. They were able to score SOME against Knights/Sens.
Oh christ I don’t know. At 1.74, I don’t think I can justify it. I just think at best it’s a 0EV play.
Sabres vs Devils:
Sabres win two at home in a row and looking for three. Devils had some road woes lately. Not really seeing much by the data. Sabres can be a bit high variance with GF/GA, Devils look better xG wise but not enough to back.
Knights vs Canadiens:
Nothing here.
Islanders vs Flyers:
Fuck the Islanders.
Blues vs Senators:
Bles home for the first time in a couple weeks. CF% & FF% in Sens favour. GF% as well, and xGF%. Bookies have it at flip odds. I’d give Sends the edge but lets look at home/road split.
Sens not really an issue. Blus – yeah home hasn’t been a factor thus far this season.
Tkachuk looks to be back last I am seeing. Even without him I’d be happy with the Sens I think. Only concern is when a player returns you often see the team take a bit to adjust. Hopefully not an issue here.
Sens incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.92 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 1.92 Odds at TonyBet
USA: -112 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/11/28 2:53:19 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Sharks vs Canucks:
Nothing here with a lotta high variance from the lads in Vancouver.
Panthers vs Flames:
Metrics are a bit close in quite a few spots I don’t know if Panthers should be as heavy favourites but I certainly wouldn’t back Calgary.
Hurricanes vs Jets:
Canes on a skid. These two just played. No interest from me.
Capitals vs Leafs:
Everyone talking about a resurgence from the Leafs but the bookies don’t think it’s going to happen here going up against a Capitals team on a roll.
By the metrics, Caps in regulation is a play. But I thought we saw some good flashes from the Leafs against the Jackets despite it being a closer scorline, and I wouldn’t bet against them here.
Jackets vs Penguins:
Think the Jackets are a bit too heavily favoured but not enough to back Pens.
Blackhawks vs Predators:
Hawks regression is kicking in although they got the goals against the Wild impressively. Preds just ended a bad run with a win away in Detroit.
Thing with the Preds is man if they were just scoring more consstently it would be nice and against a team overperforming offensively it’s tricky. But it seems a decent spot for Nashville and hopefully they can roll with that momentum.
Predators incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.85 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.85 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -117 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.85 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/11/28 2:53:19 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Stars vs Mammoth:
Mammoth better CF & FF%. Scoring less, coneding more, xG about the same.
It’s pretty close. My gut says the Stars take this as their offense has been pretty damn solid but I have enough concerns.
Drop the puck