Written by Graeme on Saturday, November 29th, 2025
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1-1 yesterday for a slight loss.
Thought the Sens did quite well, but unfortunately some real sloppiness in defending cost them in that game and was our loss.
Preds got the win over the Hawks. Little bit of a nervewracking end there but thankfully Nashville held on.
Glad I stayed away from the Kings as that was so close to a play. Wish I had went with Capitals but I erred on the side of caution. And Stars got the win which my gut said.
It’s Saturday. A lot of games. A lot of back to backs. There’s not gonna be anything here I expect. If you’re backing anything be sure to post it in the comments.
Rangers vs Lightning
Rangers come in on a nice run including thumping the Bruins yesterday. These two played recently and Tampa lost 7-3. Tampa also coming in hot though looking to avenge that loss.
Books put this as a coinflip and yeah I respect that. Metrics lean Tampas way and they are dogs – but hard to back with the B2B situation, how close the teams were when they played etc.
Avalanche vs Canadiens
Man all these back to backs are putting me off. Not just how they play physically, but it makes it a lot trickier figuring out how they react to the previous games too right? Like it’s not just metrics you have to think about how the Avs react to that tough loss, or if the Habs continue to roll after their big W. But then you have to factor in travel.
I think for the majority of these I’m just going to say the expected result based on the metrics. Not factoring in travel, back to backs, results, goalies, injuries etc then at least y’all have a baseline.
By this – yeah Avs but it’s a high variance spot and I don’t hate a dog play of the Habs.
Kraken vs Oilers
Speaking of high variance – hello Edmonton.
I don’t think they should be favoured this much at all. But I can’t bring myself to back the Kraken here despite that. Probably value on them though.
Bruins vs Red Wings
By the metrics – most likely the Wings win, although I’d be concerned about their goaltending. High enough variance that a play on the Bruins doesn’t appear to be too bad.
Penguins vs Leafs
By the metrics, lean on the Pens at their price.
Predators vs Jets
By the metrics – I do not know. Preds I’d say so not a bad value spot not counting all the other factors of course.
Devils vs Flyers
Devils seem a tad heavily favoured but they should get the W here.
Wild vs Sabres
Wild rolling with Gustavsson tonight I expect which makes them a riskier spot here.
Blues vs Mammoth
Not seeing anything I like in the data.
Kings vs Canucks
Similar spot to yesterday there.
Knights vs Sharks
I mean Knights probably win but by the data I don’t think you can take them at -1.5.
I took Red Wings ML
Bruins have too many missings. Zacha and Pasta might now play again, probably will play in 4 days revenge match in Detroit. Plus, now defender Jokiharju is out… if Red Wings cannot take this one they should quite the sport lol
Not bad thought.. McAvoy still missing too eh.
In Boston though and Geekie… man, what a snipe he’s become
too many heavy absentees, yeah…
true they have home ice, Swayman is solid but that’s it, only Geekie is the danger man to be honest, I think the Wings could take it on the road and break their losing streak (3). They didn’t lose 4 in a row this season. Perhaps the Bruins might get the revenge win in 4 days time when they recover Zacha and Pasta.
Some opnions about over at Rangers-Bolts?thanks.
Shesterkin confirmed… I was expecting Garand. With Garand I was going for the Bolts now that Shesterking is in net… pass, too much of a gamble
2 teams I’ve been backing a lot lately and cashing tickets on are Dallas and Tampa. They are just so solid and both on serious rolls. Taking Tampa today despite the rangers getting thier act together as of late. Both played yesterday so that negates the back to back factor.
Also been rolling with the Wild and kicking myself for not following my guy that they’d clip The Avs. I’m big on backing teams who are rolling despite what advanced metrics say.
Rangers – Tampa
These teams met in early November, with the Rangers defeating the Lightning, was 7-3. Tampa Bay will be looking for revenge in this matchup, which they anticipate will be a close one.
The New York Rangers are riding a tough four-game losing streak. However, the Manhattan team quickly responded.
New York has won three in a row but Tampa has six wins and will be looking to extend that streak.
Both, the Rangers and the Lightning played on the road yesterday, which naturally forces rotations on the ice. This is one of the most important aspects of this matchup.
Under 6 goals in regular time