Written by Graeme on Sunday, November 30th, 2025
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First – thanks for your understanding in what was basically a nothing day yesterday for analysis. Just within the context of the schedule, I really was not feeling comfortbale backing anything.
I’m glad I stayed away too as the back to backs and schedule seemed to throw practically everything off from the metric data.
Was great to see people chatting in the comments yesterday. Love that – do it more! I always enjoy reading your analysis and predictions etc on games.
A few people asked why no e-mail was sent out yesterday. Man – we get so much trash in our e-mails these days, I feel bad sending one more when there’s nothing to write about. As always there will be a post up by noon EST the mass majority of the time so if you don’t get the e-mail by then, check the website.
Four games today let’s see if we got anything:
Islanders vs Capitals
Obligatory fuck the Islanders. And I legitimately still haven’t figured them out. I started this just as a joke but I cannot for the life of me ever tell if this team is going to show up or not.
By the metrics….man. Same CF%. FF% practically same. Caps scoring more but conceding more. Islanders goaltending on point. Caps b etter xGF/60 but worse xGA/60.
I’d actually give the edge to the Islanders here. Palmieri being out sucks of course and he joins Romanov and Pageau – but often a team gel together after something like that.
But I just cannot take the Islanders based on the “Fuck the Islanders” rule at the moment, plus they are not coming in on the best of form. And solid goaltending going to have to be turned up to MAX to stop the Capitals.
This is one of the “If Islanders win I’ll consider backing them again” as I do like the play in theory.
Blackhawks vs Ducks
Hawks are struggling. It was coming. This is a freaking FASCINATING game because it’s going up against the no-goalie Ducks, who can only win by scoring like 7 goals in a game.
This is one of those games that in my head could be a 900-goal thriller. But will probably end up being a 0-0 game decided in a shutout because that’s hockey.
Let’s see what the metrics say. Man the Blackhawks offensive metrics are so weak – but their offense is still finding the net.
They SHOULD light it up against the Ducks.
I’m going to be straight-up here; this is a gut play. The metrics do not back it up. I could maybe take the current metric data and argue for over 6 but even that seems like a stretch.
Over 6.5 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -120 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/11/30 8:44:21 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Hurricanes vs Flames
I already feel like this one is going to be a nightmare in the metrics. Canes are a juggernaut as always regardless of results, but Flames have been sneakily good in spots.
Canes bounced back from a couple of losses with a big win over Winnipeg. Flames playing well. Canes are just stupid favourites at 1.38.
They should be favourites,b ut not by that much. I’d say there is some value on Calgary. Enough to bet? Well their issue is really goals. They have some great advanced offensive metrics, but just can’t score.
However we HAVE seen their offense produce lately against Florida, Vancouver and Buffalo. That’s the sort of thing they are generating at the moment – 3+ goals per game.
The problem is – those teams are on the other end of the spectrum compared to Carolinas defensive metrics.
Not bettable I am afraid – but that’s something I need to focus on for future Calgary games. They play the Preds on Tuesday so that’s another pass I would say; but they host the Wild on Thursday and that appears to be a very, very bettable spot.
Stars vs Senators
Stars are getting the wins but man there have been a lot of close ones. It’s been hard to feel super confident about them like I did last season. They just haven’t been showing up in the metrics yet.
By the data – CF% and FF% miniscule edge to Sens. Obviously Stars GF% so much better. xGF% is just so close though.
But it’s interesting looking at Stars for the season. GF/60 3.34 and xGF/60 3.33 so that is the perfect balance there. Their last 10 the xGF/60 is 3.23 and 3.95 for GF/60 so they are certainly overperforming but you can generally back them to get the goals.
I like them here – but 1.71 odds is just a bit too tight for me especially when the Stars are relying on goaltending which is always high variance. I’d like to see the defense step it up just a tad more.
Anyway this is one I may regret not backing. But I also have to factor in the Sens. They are frustrated after losing that Blues game on sloppy play, and practised yesterday. They are going to come out focused here and with Tkachuk back too….eh, I will pass. Especially with Greig maybe back too.
