Written by Graeme on Thursday, November 6th, 2025
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Decent amount of games today at 9. A couple more than I prefer but I’ll take it compared to the usual insane Thursday schedule. And we’ve actually got a good amount of games tomorrow which is nice.
Leafs got the 5-3 win over the Mammoth last night. Capitals bounced back strong with a big 6-1 win over the Blues.
Jackets just got scorched last night by Calgary, and the Hawks ended their skid. I was saying to Scott – they are actually becoming a backable team this year it feels, and I am looking forward oto that.
Below is todays batch although unfortunately, no picks today. And believe me I tried – I attacked the Kings/Panthers and Stars/Ducks games from so many angles hoping to justify a play.
That’s one thing I don’t think people realize; sometimes we put more work in on a game where there isn’t a play, and that was the case in both of those. There are often so many games where it’s just “yep all the boxes check off and the odds are good – perfect”. Then there are borderline ones like those that require so much analysis just to say at the end “can’t sign off on it”. Frustrating but it is what it is.
Hurricanes vs Wild
Canes are still that “eh” team with their form that puts them off backing. Wild themselves are nothing to write home about.
By the data – eh, Canes with a slight edge but it’s quite close. Quite a few metrics point to the over except for two that matter the most; Wild GF/60 and Canes GA/60. Both of which indicate the Wild could struggle to score.
Could see like a 2-0, 3-1 sorta game based on that however the xG metrics make the under a no-play.
Devils vs Canadiens
Devils struggling at the moment after their hot start – it’s been a tough road trip and they’ll be looking forward to returning home.
Bookies have them as decent favourites. By the metrics – eh it’s quite close but I do get the odds with the Devils being at home.
Anyway with the Devils back at home where they have been playing well, but the Habs competitive matches lately I can’t really see anything worth betting here. I do think Devils take it but there isn’t enough to take them in regulation.
Bruins vs Senators
These two just played recently where the Sens blasted them 7-2. I’m happy to apss based on the recent game. For the record, my gut says bruins get the W here but the metrics point to the Sens enough that it probably has some value.
Sabres vs Blues
Buffalo trying to set the record for most games in a row went to overtime it seems. This looks like a good spot to end it at face value against the Blues. Bookies aren’t so sure but have them at 1.76 approx incl OT.
Problem for me is the metrics. Blues better CF% and FF%. GF% obviously brutal but a better xGF% too. I can’t take a team in good conscience when the data points against them so overwhelmingly so – but I really can’t bet on the Blues either in this spot. All Buffalo has going for them is scoring more while Blues concede more.
Penguins vs Capitals
Pens come in on a two game skid. Caps just destroyed the Blues but that one was last night so they were on a B2B. I loved Binnington trying to punk Ovis puck.
With the B2B I’m hesistant to touch this game. By the metrics – man it’s quite tight anyway and just based on them, 50/50 odds I don’t hate. Think the bookies got it right here.
Stars vs Ducks
Is every team just living on overtime these days? Stars three in a row.
Going up against a Ducks team who are currently rocking it. Stars are heavily favoured. Man I’d love a little bet on the Ducks today let’s see what the metrics say.
Ducks slightly better CF% – man, the Dallas Stars CF/60 is brutal. FF% is similar. SF% is marginal. Ducks scoring a LOT more, both conceding about the same.
xGF/60 is the same but xGA/60 is where Stars are a fair bit better. Ducks have such a poor xGA/60. I mean you can see that looking at the Ducks – it’s all about their offense at the moment with results like 7-3 and 7-5 wins.
Dostal doesn’t have too bad a SV% though. Gosh I really do want to take these Ducks despite the Stars solid point streak.
I guess the big question is – can the Ducks score? The Stars have had a few tight ones. So this is where I’ll run the Ducks offensive metrics up against similar teams the Stars have played.
And a bit of a concern there as the Capitals are among the mix, and the Stars blanked them out. Tampa are right up there and they only got 1. Panthers are there and they did score 3.
So unfortunately – that’s why I will not be taking the Ducks here. For them to win, you need Dostal in net of course. But you also really need the Ducks to score goals to counter-balance the goals they concede – and the data just isn’t there to back that up. It’s that Capitals game specifically that has me turned off.
Predators vs Flyers
I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many generally unbackable teams in the NHL. Two other teams that are a complete mess. Preds slight favourites. By the metrics – eh, Flyers could sneak it based on Preds GA/60 and xGA/60 and we saw them take advantage of that last week. With that turnaround time, and the odds, an easy no play.
Kings vs Panthers
Kings very slight favourites here in a bit of a head-scratcher of a game based on current form.
CF% and FF% are basically the same. SF% ditto. Kings scoring more Panthers conceding more GF% is a big difference. xGF% unfortunately its the Panthers way. If it was the Kings I’d be more prone to take it – although they do have the SCGF%.
Kings coming off the solid win over the Jets – but you can’t bank on them at home with other results they have had.
I would definitely like to take the Kings here, but they haven’t shown enough for me to confidently back.
Knights vs Lightning
Knights coming in with a bit of mixed form. Tampa coming in off the loss to the Avs. Bit of a fast turnaround for these two which always puts me off. Odds seem about on the money based on the metrics.
