Written by Graeme on Friday, November 7th, 2025
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Well I said it yesterday – if the Ducks were to win, they’d have to score a lot of goals. I badly wanted to take them, but there just wasn’t enough data to justify it.
They went down 2-0 and it wasn’t looking great but then that offense came alive and they ran out 7-5 winners.
I really wish I could have backed them – but it all came down to that Stars/Capitals game. Unfortunate but common at this point of the season.
Blues/Sabres was a good indication of where advanced metrics can you help you more then basic metrics. I saw people on forums furious yesterday they backed Buffalo but that’s where advanced metrics would have helped them avoid that one.
Devils/Habs was the competitive one I expected, and Bruins did manage to squeak the win.
Wild did NOT struggle to score against the Canes but looking at it more, Freddie seems to be quite the sieve this season so maaaybe a missed opportunity by me on that one.
Only four games today.
Islanders vs Wild:
Wild on a B2B after that Canes loss. Islanders come in off that shootout loss to teh Bruins. My gut is leaning towards the Islanders but it’d have to be in regulation. Let’s see what the data says.
Islanders the much more in-form team at the moment. Slightly worse CF%. FF% the same. Better goals scored and goals against. Better xGF/60 and xGA/60 is a bit weaker. SCGF stats in their favour.
So it’s quite interesting because yesterday when I looked at Canes vs Wild, I liked the over but the issue was the Wild not scoring. Well – they did.
It’s complete opposite here – where I actually need the Wild not to score to win this bet. They create a good amount of chances etc. So the concern is if their offense is really on an uptick or not.
The B2B really isn’t a factor as they blasted goals past the Sharks on their lastt B2B.
This just seems like a really good spot for the Islanders. If they don’t win so be it – but you look at this one in the context of the season – this should be a W for them. And even if the Wild offense kick off, there is enough to support the Islanders outscoring them.
Islanders in Regulation
Ontario: 2.08 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 2.08 Odds at TonyBet
USA: +107 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/11/07 10:52:51 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wings vs Rangers:
Two real blah teams it feels like going into this. Bookies have this close to a coinflip with Wings slightest of favourites. Yeah I dunno. The advanced metrics lead me to no real conclusion on this one. It does seem to be a coinflip of a game.
Flames vs Blackhawks:
Flames strung together a couple of nice wins, looking to carry that into this game against Chicago. I already know I’m not betting anything here because I quite like Chicago this season and what I am seeing from them, but not a good spot to back them here.
By the data – it definitely leans Flames way although their poor SCGF/60 is a big concern. So no bet, could definitely see this going either way.
Sharks vs Jets:
With the Sharks on a nice little run at the moment and some solid performances man I am good not taking Jets on road in regulation here. Just looks to be one of those spots where it’s not worth it. And honestly the advanced metrics don’t agree with Jets in regulation anyway with a similar CF%, and the Jets xGA/60.
