Written by Graeme on Saturday, November 8th, 2025
Follow @BetNHL
Well I don’t think I’ll be betting the New York Islanders again anytime soon.
What an absolutely piss-poor performance from them. That was a team that just 100% did not show up last night, or had any care about winning.
And you know – I’m not even mad from a betting perspective. I take that as a learning experience not to trust that team, and move on. It happens.
I’m pissed from a fans perspective. Probably about 15,000 people spent their Friday night watching these players getting paid millions of dollars decide “ah we just don’t care tonight”. You’d think they were 10 goals down the way they “played” that third period.
Just a joke, and it really bothers me when teams “phone it in”, if you can even call it that.
In other games – Rangers ran out 4-1 winners ovs the Wings. Blackhawks got a hug win over the Flames, and the Sharks continued their nice run. Good on them.
Let’s look at Saturdays monstrous slate:
Devils vs Penguins
Results wise not feeling great about either team. By the metrics – probably slight edge to the Pens if I am being honest. Although Devils are better in some areas. There is probably some value on the Pens here. But with the Devils solid home results – I think it’s an easy enough pass. Pens picked up a couple of injuries too that won’t help.
Flyers vs Senators
Flyers got the win over the Preds on Thursday. Sens are living in OT at the moment. Bookies have Flyers slight dogs. Looking at the metrics – yeah they are all over the place, I’m not spotting anything here.
Predators vs Stars
Hilariously, the Preds are actually better in quite a few metrics here so this game doesn’t appear to be as clear cut as the bookis would make you believe. But I am not seeing anything to make it worth backing Nashville here – just one of those results where if they win I wouldn’t be surprised.
Hurricanes vs Sabres
Canes coming in with two wins in a row. Sabres OT run came crashing to an end against the Blues. Despite such a great points run, my gut is strongly leaning towards the Canes here. I don’t know if that’s just tainted by the Sabres over the years – that’s an easy mistake sportsbooks themselves make, which is place odds based on reputation.
It would have to be the handicap if we were taking the Canes. The metrics do not swing that way so I will pass. Canes have a worse xGA than the Sabres for example and it appears close. I could see it being one of those that rely on an empty netter to cover.
Canadiens vs Mammoth
Habs continue to live in OT land. Mammoth can bring the heat so first thought is the over could be the play.
And it’s marginal. It’s really the Habs offense which is the problem. Despite the quantity of goals they are scoring, their xGF and CF are low, and their FF/60 is criminally low at 37.37 over last 10.
But I mean – they do continue to score. And although they have a decent enough SCGA/60, Mammoth are a beast for scoring.
This is one where the data doesn’t check all the boxes, the Habs offense is the real concern, but I think there is just enough there to go with it and hope that the Habs continue to overperform offensively. Or at worst, Utah can make it up. And it’s not like Habs offense is about to get found out or anything like that – more that their xGF is below that magic “3” number that you generally want for an over at 2.81 for last 10.
Over 6 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.85 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.85 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -117 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/11/08 9:06:53 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Leafs vs Bruins
Leafs come in on a strong run, against a Bruisn team who have been pretty on point lately. Odds seem about right.
Blues vs Kraken
Can Blues build on their win over the Sabres? We saw them beat the Oilers then get blown out by the Caps. Kraken just had a nice point run crash and burn at home to the Sharks.
Not feeling either team. Blues are favourites but man I have zero interest in taking them in regulation here – I don’t even think I could take them incl OT/SO if it was 1.90, never mind at 1.62.
Rangers vs Islanders
Fuck the New York Islanders. Hope they get absolutely destroyed here. Bunch of absolute wasters. By the data – eh, I it’s all about if the Rangers can get scoring. They did it against Detroit but they have struggled. If they can build on it they can do the business here.
But you never know – after that piss-poor performance, Islanders may have been read the riot act and perform a lot better today. Or maybe they have to to forfeit their game because the coach fired them all out of a cannon. That would have been my solution.
Lightning vs Capitals
Gut definitely leans Tampa at first look. Let’s see that data. CF% and FF% are both close. Tampa better GF & xGF metrics. These two played back in October and Caps came out 3-2 winners in OT.
The issue with the Caps – and it was a big talking point after the Penguins game – is their special teams. And that IS a concern. Because if you look at the 5 vs 5 metrics – it is drastically different in some areas. You usually don’t see such a difference.
I do like Tampa here, but I feel like we’d be relying a lot on special teams which worries me. Not something I really want to gamble on personally.
Canucks vs Blue Jackets
Canucks just a mess, but the Jackets come in on a two game skid and after being blown out by Calgary – meh. Looking at the data I’m not seeing a play.
Sharks vs Panthers
Sharks come in on a tear but are on a B2B. Panthers got that nice win over the Kings and their offense looks to be clicking a bit better. They need that bad – their xGF/60 is at 3.46 last 10 compared to jsut 2.46 GF/60.
Sharks are an insane price at 3.00 odds. They have some key injuried but that didn’t affect last night against the Jets.
I’d say there is certainly some slight value on the Sharks. On the B2B, with the injuries, and honestly factoring in the bookies high line – it’s not something I can advise. But it’s definitely a ‘bet it and forget it’ one.
Oilers vs Avalanche
With a loose cannon like Skinner in net – I hesitate to back anything involving the Oilers. By the metrics Avs much better CF & FF%, scoring more conceding less, better xG stats. Jesus they are so close to a play. If the bookies had then at 1.90 odds I’d take them for sure but I am only seeing 1.78 and not loving that. If Avs were at home, I’d 100% take them here but the Oilers have had at least been up for games at home.
Golden Knights vs Ducks
Ducks big dogs despite being on a tear, as they had to Vetgas.
CF% the same, FF% slightly better Vegas. Ducks scoring more, better xGF but worse xGA.
It’s what I said the other night – it’s all about whether the Ducks can score. Knights have a pretty tight GA/60 and xGA/60. So can the Ducks score against that? They did against Florida who are quite close in the metrics to the Knights. Not seeing too many others who are close. A couple of teams are worse and they were able to score. They DID get 3 against Tampa although lost 4-3.
Knights do have a beastly record against the Ducks if you consider that. I never do, personally. I don’t think result from 3 years ago is a factor. Vegas defense did show some good shit against Tampa early on.
Schmid projected to be in net who is 6-1-0 meh.
This is one where I have no problem betting it myself as I think there’s enough value, but there is too much variance/risk to officially advise. As we’ve seen, the Ducks NEED to score a ton of goals, they have shown that they CAN, but it’s a roll the dice as to whether they will or not.
Think it’s a decent value bet spot though.
There are a lot of situations where first look says something obvious, but a deeper look says high caution.
Tampa at home looks good and Washington had one day off after a back-to-back. Tampa does look like it’s rounding into form, and Washington isn’t; looking like the Ovechkin watch is all they are concerned with.
To WIN moneyline: Tampa
Lean: Seattle to WIN moneyline
Seattle is in a great situation after 2 days off, and St. Louis had one day off after a back-to-back. Problem is Seattle doesn’t look particularly strong right now. Risky.
Also, Anaheim is leading the Pacific and San Jose is currently 6-6-3 and scoring at will. Tides are changing. Carolina aught to win today but Buffalo has played well against good teams, so no bets.
Checking in after the games.. I hope you went with your gut and bet Sharks and Ducks! I know you guys operate on advanced metrics more than anything else but with the win streak and results both teams have been producing those odds were insane. We’re just so used to the ducks and sharks being shite teams and apparently the bookies view it the same way.
I got greedy and parlayed them together for a sweet 9-1 payout. Only put a 1/4 unit and I decided to do it 5 minutes before puck drop. Sure glad I did now! Hope you got some of that action Graham.
Also of note your analysis of the Islanders was spot on. They pumped the rangers in a bounce back performance after. Complete embarrassment 24hr before.
Sometimes I think being a good sports bettor isn’t just the ability to find value on a number or delving deep into stats but forecasting on how scenarios “should” play out. I tend to win more speculating off of my gut than anything else.
Gut is a big one and almost has the same or better results than metrics. Well sorry, an informed gut call. Sometimes I can get lost and confused in the metrics for me anyways, and they veer me wrong when you know otherwise …
Thats a nice payout 👍🏼… i was going to bet that Ducks game as well, based on how my early night went, early went well… i fell asleep and forgot the Ducks game! LOL damnit!
Oh yeah for sure – there are a lot of bets I make that I don’t make official here – any leans or value bets, you can guarantee I’m betting them. However I do understand that people blindly follow our bets even though I wish they wouldn’t, so when we do the official bets there’s always just a little bit more criteria required.
And I won’t just rely on data. However I do like to have something to point to to say “see this is why I’m backing it”. Ducks are a good example of where “Okay the Ducks CAN score but WILL they?” and finding something to back that up I consider important.
There’s also a few plays a season where I’ll be straight up and say the data doesn’t like this play but I do.
It’s a fine line where data should be an assistant but not a crutch.
Totally! Any of your long time followers understand how you guys do it.