Written by Graeme on Saturday, October 18th, 2025
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Let’s not talk about that Jays game.
Wild defense let them down big again last night as the Capitals got an easy win.
My strongest lean was the Wings and they managed to squeak it in OT.
Mammoth took advantage of the Sharks defensive metrics and got a nice big win, covering the handicap in the process for anyone who backed that.
It’s Saturday and a big slate. I’m getting to these a bit late today after a late night last night – and I don’t have much time before I go out again today.
So some short write-ups unless I have a play.
Sabres vs Panthers
By the metrics, not a play anyway as slight lean on Panthers due to Sabres defensive metrics but not enough to back them in regulation.
Senators vs Islanders
Both teams defensive metrics are a nightmare. A bit too erratic for me until we get more data.
Devils vs Oilers
Slight lean to Oilers but the odds seem pretty dead on. If they were at home I think I’d have enough confidence to back them.
Leafs vs Kraken
Leafs GA/xGA stats and defensive metrics as a whole put me off them here.
Canadiens vs Rangers
Looks to be a close one. Data is a bit all over the place and not seeing much.
Blues vs Stars
Advanced metrics look to have this one going over, and both teams have been generally consistent with that this season.
One outlier which was the Blues/Hawks game.
Happy to back the over based on data/results so far.
Over 6 Goals incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -101 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/10/18 12:10:03 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Jets vs Predators
Nothing jumping out here. Don’t think Jets should be this high a favourite though.
Jackets vs Lightning
Not spotting much here – potentially a slight lean towards Jackets but bookies have covered that.
Flyers vs Wild
Lean towards the Wild but yeah their defense is a bloody mess and can’t be trusted.
Kings vs Hurricanes
Canes are looking a beast early on here. Feels a bit too early to back a team on the road in regulation though, which is what I’d have to do. Closest lean of the day though.
Avs vs Bruins
Would have to be Avs -1.5 and while it’s close, Bruins have some nice offensive metrics that are putting me off.
Knights vs Flames
Decent leant towards Knights but not enough to back them in regulation.
Sharks vs Penguins
Everything just way too erratic to touch. Over 6.5 isn’t a bad play based on CA/60, GF/GA and most xG stats.
