Written by Graeme on Saturday, October 25th, 2025
Follow @BetNHL
Leafs were beaten yesterday by the Sabres 5-3, and the Jets defense continued to be a mess but they got the 5-3 win over the Flames.
The Devils had a solid but tight 3-1 win.
Bit mad I didn’t take the Capitals yesterday. Not sure if I am just gun shy or what at the moment. But at least it meant I didn’t have to sweat that game and could instead just focus on the Jays game.
What an incredible result and performance that is.
There’s a busy slate tomorrow, but a heads up that there is a good chance I won’t have anything. I have to travel tonight for marathon weekend in Niagara tomorrow. An early start there, combined with hitting a bar or the casino for the Jays game tonight? Yeeeeah – tomorrow going to be a mess.
Let’s look at todays big slate:
Flyers vs Islanders
A very inconsistent Flyers team take on the Islanders who have got the confidence going.
Looking at the advanced metrics – Islanders better in CF% and FF%. Scoring but conceding more, their xGA is horrendous.
I’m not sure if Philly are the team to do it – although based on their Kraken and Panthers results it’s possible – but the Islanders are due a battering and happy to pass.
Bruins vs Avalanche
Yeah I mean the data is generally fine here for an Avs regulation win. The only concern is that the two teams just played a week ago and that is a bit of a tight turnaround. Always have to be careful of those.
I’ll personally pass due to just recently being burnt by that, but by the data Avs should do the job here.
Lightning vs Ducks
Tampa solid favourites here despite some piss-poor results to open the season. You have to wonder if part of that is just due to team reputation more than anything else.
One where I’d definitely like a cheeky little bet on the Ducks. And honestly – the metrics do point that way. Better Corsi & Fenwick, much better SF% and SCGF. The only issues are the Ducks defense and goaltending which lets them down. Although Tampa is in a similar spot.
This is one of those plays were going into it, I understand that there is a strong likelihood that it loses. However I do think there is enough value in the line that it’s worth taking regardless. Ducks have certainly had the easiest schedule – Power Rankings Guru has them with easiest so far – but it’s not like Tampa have faced a juggernaut of teams.
Ducks incl OT/SO
(And if you’re one of those silly people who expect us to win every bet we make and send angry emails after one loss – pass on this one)
Ontario: 2.65 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.65 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +161 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.65 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/10/25 9:16:21 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Leafs vs Sabres
Just played. No interest.
Wild vs Mammoth
Mammoth definitely have a lot going for them here. Corsi slightly better, better Fenwick, SF%, GF%, xGF% etc. Playing generally well.
Just something about them I am not loving in this spot, but mathematically, they’re probably a fine bet here.
Panthers vs Knights
I was going to say at the odds you gotta take the Knights here – but when I dived into the advanced metrics – wow, not the case. The Panthers biggest issue is goalscoring but everything else looks solid.
I still like the Knights at that price but Panthers gotta get clicking soon and they could be properly up for this one.
Penguins vs Jackets
I was really hoping to take the Penguins here at the price and the Jackets being on a B2B, but man the metrics don’t really jive too much. Jackets better CF% and FF%. xG stats are a bit erratic.
This is one of those where by basic data it looks like a gimme, but the more you dive into it the trickier it appears. I don’t hate it but proceed with caution.
Canucks vs Canadiens
This is one of those tricky ones where you wonder how big of a factor emotion will be – Habs going to be fired up after that Oilers game. Then you also have to wonder how big a factor the refs will be.
That sort of reaction by the Habs players can go either way with the refereeing.
Thankfully for me it’s a moot point as the metrics don’t go enough in the Habs favour. It’s definitely close, and the price might be of some value but not enough for me to back.
Capitals vs Senators
After the big win and Ovi last night, my gut says this is a let-down spot for the Caps. Unfortunately, the data is overwhelmingly in the Caps favour so I’ll sit this one out.
Wings vs Blues
Wings come in on a two game skid. Data has this quite close, with a slight edge for the Wings which is what they have at the bookies. No bet.
Stars vs Hurricanes
Stars been a bit of a disappointment this season so far. By advanced metric data though, I think that will turn around soon. Not seeing enough to back the Canes here with how tight some of their recent games have been. I think they pull out the W though.
Predators vs Kings
No real interest in either team and yeah the metrics don’t point towards anything worth a bet.
Kraken vs Oilers
Again you have to wonder if the refereeing performance in Oilers/Habs will have any impact here. Not really seeing anythign in data for a bet here at all. I don’t think Oilers should be favoured as much as they are but I don’t have confidence in the Kraken.
So the lone risky value bet today, and a couple of strong leans.
Like I said – maybe will have bets tomorrow although with time constraints and B2Bs I – pardon the pun – wouldn’t bet on it.
