Written by Graeme on Saturday, April 26th, 2025
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They had pretty much no goaltenders, but the Habs managed to get the big win over the Washington Capitals at the Bell Centre to hopefully add some intrigue to that series.
The Edmonton Oilers also don’t have any goaltenders for different reasons – but they were able to get the big 7-4 win over the Kings in a crazy game, with the Oilers having a massive third period.
Devils and Canes went to double OT with the Devils squeaking out the win.
Let’s look at todays games:
Panthers vs Lightning Game 3:
Scott: I, like Graeme, went with the Lightning to win the series but I’m really not sure anymore.
The Panthers are up 2-0 and are at home for the next 2 games. Hagel hammered Barkov and I’m not sure if he’s going to be anywhere near 100% after that but they are a deep team. Bobrovsky has been awesome too allowing only 2 goals.
With the Panthers at home and playing so well its impossible for me not to lean towards them. But I’m going to watch game 3 and see if the Lightning show up.
No Bet
Graeme: Usually when a team is down 0-2 and switches venues it’s good news, as it means they are getting home ice advantage. Not so for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are on the road in this one.
The metrics for this one are so wack, with the Panthers a CF/60 of just 37.5 compared to Tampas 60.5.
Tampa were also 18-19-4 on the road in the regular season, while the Panthers were 27-12-2.
Honestly with the Panthers at 1.71 odds and based on the results thus far – plus that home/road form – I think the Panthers probably have slight value.
Buuuuut my spidey sense is tingling – this almost feels like that weird series we see where it’s road teams all the way. I’m going to pass, also in part due to the metrics.
No Bet
Wild vs Knights Game 4:
Scott: The Wild have won their last 2 games by 5-2 scores. Kaprizov and Boldy have been huge for them. They chased Hill for the net in game 3 which has to sting.
The Knights have a chance to tie the series and make it a best of 3 with them having home ice advantage. The Wild also have a chance at home to take a commanding 3-1 with a win.
The way the Wild have been playing it’s hard to bet against them and Gustavsson has been incredible. But the Knights also know what they are up against and owe Hill a better effort.
No Bet
Graeme: I’m actually kind of kicking myself – I swore off the Knights on the road in the regular season, and I should have bet against them in that last one despite their road record ending up respectable.
Anyway we’re getting incredible value on the Wild considering the Knights defense has gone to pot. If their regular season defense shows up then that’s fine – but I’d say anything above 2.00 is a solid value bet here. The Wild are creating and scoring a lot, and if it wasn’t for knowing what the Knights are capable of, I’d take them in regulation. But they seem to have this Vegas defense figured out and I feel it’s a lot harder for a defense to adjust than it is an offense.
Wild incl OT
Ontario: 2.25 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.30 Odds at Bovada
USA: +130 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.25 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/04/26 10:00:27 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Leafs Game 4:
Scott: The Leafs have had luck on their side so far this series. Game 1 they put up a strong effort and won 6-2. Games 2 and 3 were both won 3-2 in overtime.
I really don’t know what the Sens can do differently. They haven’t been getting their asses kicked over the last 2 games and overall the have outshot the Leafs.
I picked the Leafs and do see them winning this series but I didn’t see this being a sweep.
Sens win incl OT
Ontario: 1.94 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 1.94 Odds at TonyBet
USA: -109 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/04/26 10:00:27 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Note to self; when it involves the Toronto Maple Leafs, don’t pay attention to the metrics for the rest of the playoffs. Hell just back them blindly. I think the Sens are done – but looking at the metrics, there’s not enough there to back the Leafs at those odds. Of course that probably doesn’t matter.
God. The Leafs are going to give me a headache all the way I expect. No Bet.
Avalanche vs Stars Game 4:
Scott: I thought that the Avalanche would have responded differently with Landeskog making his return after 3 years. But they were only able to score once. For the Stars they got goals from their longtime Stars Seguin and Benn.
It was a great game though that needed overtime for the 2nd game in a row. They had the same number of shots which has been common in this series with similar shot counts.
With this game still in Colorado the Avs need to win and tie the series up and make it a best of 3 series. I want to take the Avs here but it needs to be in regulation and their last 2 games went to overtime so I have to pass on this.
No Bet
Graeme: Starting to get a bit concerned about the Avs! I can’t take them in regulation here, but I have a lot of concerns about this team. There’s too many other datapoints against the Stars, so I’ll pass. No Bet
Im liking the over5.5 for Veg/Min game… unless this is the game where Vegas defence steps up and Vegas has a shutdown win. Even then, all 3 so far have been over and xG are somewhat justifying it??? I think I more just want at least one afternoon bet BUT really having hard time convincing myself of anything solid
I hate the playoffs for its insane variance. I should just bet exactly opposite to what I see in data and feel, LOL