Written by Graeme on Thursday, May 1st, 2025
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Two teams were eliminated yesterday, as the Florida Panthers and Washington Capitals both won their series 4-1.
For the Habs – it really just came down to inexperience. For the Lightning? Who the hell knows. Panthers were just UP for it and if you’re a futures betting person – them for the cup doesn’t seem too shabby.
The Jets figured out their Hellebuyck problem – just score plenty more goals. Despite Hellebuyck conceding 3, they won with a big 5-3 victory.
We’ve got a busy evening with four games.
We’ve also got the worst livery in the history of F1 to look forward to this weekend.
Senators vs Leafs Game 6
Scott: Now the Leafs have to worry about solving Ullmark on top of winning a game to move on to the 2nd round. He made 29 saves in the shutout.
The Leafs and their fans are used to this in the playoffs and the team has to win this game and not let this go to a game 7.
Leafs win incl OT
Graeme: I want, want, want, more than anything in the world, for the Leafs to lose this series.
So I’m going to back Leafs incl OT. Not because of any metrics or anything – but man, I want the other result sooo bad and if it doesn’t come in, hey at least I’ve won money.
The odds are also pretty solid in a vaccuum. Please Ottawa – lose me money.
Ontario: 2.07 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 2.07 Odds at TonyBet
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/05/01 7:44:01 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Knights Game 6
Scott: The Knights managed to win the last 2 games in OT after losing 2 in a row. The Wild haven’t made it to the 2nd round since 2015.
Gustavsson was pulled in the last game due to an illness so his health status is huge for game 6.
With the 2 overtimes it’s obviously going to be a close game so I’ll instead go with Hertl again. He didn’t hit the 3 shots last game so I’ll try it again.
Hertl over 2.5 shots
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/05/01 7:44:01 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: One series I feel completely scoobied on. It’s a critical game for the Wild as they face elimination. Do they have what it takes here, backs against the wall? Advanced metrics are a bit all over the place with Wild a better xGF but Wild the high SCGF.
I’ll go with Over 5.5 as by the metrics and results it seems fine. Of course things do change in these critical games and things can be a bit tighter – but Minnesota need to loosen up and both teams have shown the offense they have and that they are both usually good for a couple of goals. At least that’s what I’m telling myself.
Ontario: 1.99 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 1.99 Odds at TonyBet
USA: -108 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/05/01 7:44:01 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Avalanche vs Stars Game 6
Scott: Stars can wrap this up here. They looked great in game 5 scoring 3 unanswered, allowing 2 and then scoring another 3.
The Avalanche are at home and have a chance to take this series to 7 games. They certainly have the team to do it but haven’t done it yet.
If the Avalanche are to force a game 7, MacKinnon will have a big role in that. He has had shots counts of 7, 4, 9, 4 and 7.
MacKinnon over 4.5 shots
Graeme: Another odd series. The Avs have been very disappointing overall, while Dallas have picked themselves up off two blowouts. While neither team is scoring a ton over the course of the series, both xGFs are high and goaltending has been a solid factor.
It’s so tricky as you look at the Stars offense – they can score 1 or 0, then hammer in 6 or 4. I’m going to go with Nathan McKinnon over 4.5 shots on goal as he is either way over, or slightly under and in a crucial game like this I think we’re going to see a lot more from him. I don’t read Scott’s tips until after I have analyzed and wrote my own – so neat to see we are both on the same prop. Will count that in the stats, win or lose.
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Bovada
USA: +115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/05/01 7:44:01 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oilers vs Kings Game 6
Scott: The Kings lost at home which is a rare thing. They opened the scoring in game 5 but the Oilers answered back with 3 of their own.
The Oilers won their 2 games in Edmonton already so now with a chance to move onto the next round they need to take advantage of their own home ice.
Bouchard has been a big piece of the success they Oilers have had. Shot counts so far are 4, 2, 4, 9, 2
Bouchard over 2.5 shots
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -130 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/05/01 7:44:01 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: I said it last time – Oilers have the momentum, and they were able to take that game. I think they wrap it up here. Oilers in regulation
Ontario: 2.11 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 2.11 Odds at TonyBet
USA: -102 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/05/01 7:44:01 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Taking the day off betting after looking at these situations. Let’s go Round 2!
Deciding games in series can be exceptionally emotional, producing collapses, extra tight defense, low scores and other atypical results. Can’t take sides, O/U or props with this.
Couldnt agree more. Im almost losing sleep here AND I bet for fun!!! LOL this isnt breaking the bank IT just drives me nuts when the results are nowhere as expected. Lastnight I was 4-1… figure thats a good point to take a breather until round 2 as well.