Written by Graeme & Scott on Monday, May 5th, 2025
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Holy crap how can you not love playoff hockey?
No other American sport can come close to that sort of finish that we saw in the third period of the Jets vs Blues game last night. An incredible comeback by the Jets, and despite more defensive and goaltending struggles, they move onto the next round.
What a banger.
We’ve got the Leafs vs Panthers playoffs starting tonight. Here are our thoughts:
Panthers vs Leafs Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Panthers won the season series 3-1.
The Panthers got by the Florida rivals in 5 games. They were led in the first round by Tkachuk, Bennett, Verhaeghe, Reinhart, Barkov and Marchand.
What makes them scary is they have other players who haven’t yet got going and they are defending last seasons Stanley Cup win.
Well the Leafs have dealt with one Tkachuk so might as well bring on the other one. It took them 6 games to get by the Senators. They are led by Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, Reilly and Knies.
The Leafs had trouble with the Sens but I wonder how much of it was it being the Battle of Ontario and also the troubles the Leafs seem to always have in the 1st round
I want the Leafs to get through this round not only because they are a Canadian team but because they and their fans deserve it. I just think that this Panthers team looks great and are going to be a tough out for any team. But if Matthews or Tavares can catch fire then they have as good as shot as any team to do it.
Leafs win the series
Graeme: On paper – I’d say this one is all Panthers. Granted that’s before I look at the metrics. But I mean – they cleaned the clock of Tampa. Meanwhile, the Leafs struggled against the Sens. Even in the games they won, their metrics were disappointing.
Looking at the metrics so far this series – Panthers better CF & FF%. More shots, altho a bit more SA/60. Much better GF/60 although the Leafs goaltending was a big factor for them with a 1.49 GA/60 – and actually their defensive work was superb at 2.16 xGA/60.
Panthers were close to that though at 2.24 xGA/60 and better xGF. A good amount more high danger chances by the Panthers, which they easily capitalized on more.
Advanced metrics in regular season matchups between the teams were quite close. Panthers also won when it really mattered pre-April.
Panthers offense just looks that much better and are so good at creating. Their defense looked so tight against Tampa.
So I hate this. As I wanted to come into this and back the Leafs purely due to Berubes shithousery – and if they had swept the Sens, I would have likely made that bet. But to lose two in a row, and now going against an, on paper, much better Panthers team?
I think I gotta go with Florida here.
I’m going with Panthers -1.5 due to the odds. But I will not be surprised even remotely if the Leafs manage to find a way to get outplayed, but still progress.
what a game lastnight indeed, no other sport compares…. I am biased of course.
I will say it again… god damn Marchand and the Panthers in general. This time I do think it is different with Matthew’s/Nylander showing up last game against Ottawa… Marner has a new kid, they look up to Berube and Stollarz… Stollarz’ time here
Leafs +1.5 on the series…. common!