Written by Graeme on Wednesday, May 14th, 2025
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Well I guess Granlund WAS due. I went with over 1.5 SOG and he goes out there and gets himself a hat trick. Very impressive. Dude is clutch.
That looks like the Jets are toast, unfortunately.
Stars are one of those teams that – I dunno – I just find it hard to see them winning it. Of all the teams looking like they will be in the next round, they are the one I find least likely. But we’ll see how it goes.
Two games tonight. The Leafs host the Panthers in a critical Game 5, while the Knights host the Oilers knowing that if they don’t win, they’re out.
Leafs vs Panthers Game 5
Scott: The Panthers were able to keep the Leafs shot count down and held te scoreless in game 3.
They had only 4 shots in the 1st and 8 in the 2nd. Woll wasn’t bad he made 35 saves on 37 shots. At the end of the game Domi hit Barkov hard from behind which is sure to carry over into game 5. Tkachuk was hanging over bench telling everyone who would listen that he was coming for them in the next game.
Series is tied 2-2 so I really have no idea who wins here and think the Panthers would have momentum. Since we don’t do “No Bet” any longer I’ll go with Tavares for shots. His four games in this series has had shots counts of 5, 6, 2 and 4.
Tavares over 2.5 shots
Graeme: Leafs go into this as home underdogs. They need to win to go up 3-2. Otherwise, they are down 3-2. Then they are facing a “Game 7” in Florida, where they lost twice. So in a way, this is a Game 7 for them. Except without that Game 7 pressure.
Looking at the metrics for the series – Panthers better in most spots. Leafs just with the better SCGF/60.
Ugh. It’s a tough one. By the results and performances – other than that Leafs performance last time out – it feels really close between the two. Meaning getting + odds on the Leafs at home feels good. But on the other hand, the metrics do go Floridas way. I don’t think I’d have them as heavily favoured as they are though.
I’m gonna go with Leafs incl OT. As I do think there is value, plus the money I win will make the texts I receive from my Leafs fan friends more easy to handle.
Knights vs Oilers Game 5
Scott: Henrique scored twice in the last game and Kane added an empty net as the Oilers won 3-0 to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series.
The whole team looked better after the way game 3 ended. They knew they couldn’t allow the Knights to be close enough to have a goal go in with .4 left on the clock.
Skinner’s played his first since Game 2 against the Kings and picked up the shutout. So does he have his confidence back after a huge win?
Oilers win incl OT
Graeme: It’s such a tricky spot because one thing I hate being is reactive. If anything, I prefer to take advantage of when sportsbooks react to one result, such as backing the Canes in Game 3.
So I hate to back the Oilers based off that one game where Skinner held a shutout.
But to be fair it was more about the defense – they figured everything out and did a great job which was what was necessary.
I lean the Oilers, but the 2.05 odds sem a bit tricky for me. In saying that, all the advanced metrics point their way over the course of all 4 games.
But then it IS Skinner, and one game doesn’t change matters. However on the flip side of that – we’ve seen him before when he gets in the zone and on a hot streak like many goalies do – and that could be beastly for him.
Very conflicted, I’ll go with a player prop instead based on yesterdays logic – Ivan Barbashev over 1.5 shots.
Oilers are full throttle at the moment and picked up momentum not only athome but also away. Vegas vs Wild were a bit sloppy at home and also showing it in this series. Secondly Oilers dont only rely on McD but quite a few are getting points on the sheet!
Oilers get the job done and get a few days of rest!
Oilers ML, reg, -1 and -2 🥳
The other game.. puh! Love the intensity in this Series! Two great teams and a shame to see one go out (this should have been a SC worthy series).
The importance of this match’s outcome will likely impact the play to more defensiv character and therefore maybe U5,5 or 6,5 (incl OT).
Also (unless there is more than a one goal margin) I think this game Will go to OT because of the above written and therefore a bold play to Bet the draw.
If i were to pick a winner it Will be home ice, as all home teams have won in this Series and possible to see a game 7 also.
U5,5 U6,5 (wont bet myself)
Draw X (yes, Thats Bet) 🥳
TML ML (also my bet)
Oilers all the way. Vegas has looked not really particularly well in any aspect all playoffs
If Toronto shows up offensively …. game easily goes over as we all know they can score a lot!! BUT cannot hold a substantial lead for the life of them….
I agree with you in normal circumstances, however this game is SO much more important than all other games have been as it holds the key to a decisive edging in this series. That Will without impact this game to keep more tight at the back, maybe not taking too Big risks.
2-2 i regulation (my draw X) 😉
Good luck tonight.
Things could go many ways. Style of play is shifting and fatigue and play-through injuries are stacking up. Betting is very risky here, but some picks look tempting:
Props:
Bobrovsky OVER 22.5 saves….1.75
Hertl OVER 1.5 shots…………… 1.50
Lean: Nylander OVER 0.5 pts…. 1.45
and
Oilers +1.5…………………………. 1.44
Oilers regulation win……………. 2.54
Oilers moneyline win……………. 2.05
Toronto should have at least a good effort in terms of shots, so the Bobrovsky bet looks solid. All Toronto has to do is skate, and 22 shots should be hit with lots of time remaining. I consider all Toronto prop bets high risk. I want to see someone check Tkachuk so hard his chicklets are pulled out of the boards with plyers, but that’s for next season; Leafs have to play disciplined here.
Edmonton is peaking while Vegas is not playing like the dominant team they were in previous years. The Oilers at +1.5 looks like free money. I DO NOT know why the bookies have Vegas favored. The Oilers have had their bad game, and goaltending wasn’t the cause, it was general collapse; bad passes, bad decisions, lots of giveaways, slower skating, weak checking. The Oilers will want to get lots of rest before Round 3.
Can’t blame Skinner for Vegas goals. That last one with 0.4 seconds left was Skinner successfully stopping the shooter, and then in an awkward situation a league top scorer scores on his own net by accident. Them’s the breaks.