Written by Graeme on Sunday, April 24th, 2022
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Well the Leafs and Panthers didn’t manage to get the goals yesterday as hoped. That one went under with ease with just 4 goals in regulation time.
The xG was 4.33 to 2.83 for the Leafs, so it was the right play based on the way the game turned out. Just variance.
I was breathing a sigh of relief in the early games though as the Canes in regulation was very close to being a bet. They were unable to do so and I would have been pretty ticked if I went with them.
Another busy Sunday. Lot of back to backs. F1 Italian Grand Prix as well. Oh man poor Sainz what a bad start for Ferrari.
With just one game tomorrow I’ll probably skip write-ups altogether. One pick today the Capitals.
Predators vs Wild:
No bet here but feels like this could be a tight one. This is one I’d probably look to bet OT on – probably value there.
Ducks vs Blues:
Blues coming off that hard fought win over the Coyotes. What a great comeback that was by Arizona. Would have to be Blues -1.5 and I don’t bet those on the road.
Knights vs Sharks:
Both teams suck and I have no interest in betting either.Knights still have playoff hopes but I mean we saw how that worked out for them against the Devils. You just can’t trust them at all. It won’t surprise me if the Sharks ride them hard here and pull off the upset or at least keep it close.
Blue Jackets vs Oilers:
Nice win for the Oilers yesterday. Not a team I really like to back on the road. Jackets have started regressing and I don’t see any value bets on them for the rest of the season.
Devils vs Red Wings:
At 2.45 odds – man, I think there may be slight value on the Wings here. Doesn’t feel like Devils should be so heavily favoured. Last time these two played Wings blasted them too. I don’t feel it’s something I can advise but I’ll probably chuck something on it.
Islanders vs Hurricanes:
Islanders are so disappointing right now after some great performances. Canes I just don’t have the confidence in and yesterdays tight one just confirmed that.
Flyers vs Penguins:
Would have to be Pens -1.5 if backing them. I’ve no idea what to think of Pittsburgh right now. No interest in betting here.
Panthers vs Lightning:
Could see this one being a high scoring game. As I said yesterday by the metrics yesterday game should have went over. Tampa come in flying. I feel a bit gunshy after backing the Panthers over yesterday and it not coming through.
These two we last saw have a 12 goal banger in December. Honestly really like this one to go over I’ve just seen Tampa switch off a lot this season and at this stage of the season you always wonder how motivated the teams will be.
I will admit that if I didn’t back that over yesterday I’d likely back this one today. Both teams being on a back to back is another reason not to though.
Jets vs Avalanche:
Don’t bet anything involving the Jets.
Capitals vs Leafs:
Interesting one. Capitals at home after a long road trip. They aren’t on a back to back. They lost to the Leafs last time out on the 14th so will be looking to return the favour.
Leafs on a back to back and on two straight losses and Kallgren in net.
If Caps are concerned about seeding then they should be motivated here.
Washington are one of those teams I am always wary of backing. But I do think at least on paper, they are worth a play here. I’m almost tempted to go with the in regulation at 2.40ish odds but I’m already a tad wary due to Washington being Washington plus both teams have enough OT games, so I’ll just go with Capitals incl OT/SO.
Ontario: 1.84 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Rest of Canada: 1.87 Odds at Casumo
USA: -114 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.87 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/04/24 9:25:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canadiens vs Bruins:
Nothing here.
Lean: Full game OVER 6: Blues/Ducks
Problem with that game: a pre-game retirement ceremony for Getzlaf, and both teams are on a back-to-back. Ducks will likely play very energized, it won’t be a normal style delivery. Regular stats for this season say “Over”, and so does the situation. The Blues look-ahead is Colorado on Tuesday, so they may take it easy today, OR, more likely, they’ll go for the 2 points in their playoff position race with Minnesota. Both teams trending to OVERs with no rest. Don’t see much else to bet on today. Best of luck folks.