Written by Graeme on Wednesday, April 24th, 2024
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Horrific news for Canucks fans, as Demko was out yesterday and potentially for the series. As soon as the news was out we updated our post to say not to take the Canucks bet, but will of course include the L in our stats because we didn’t make it goalie dependent.
Thought the Canucks were very unfortunate in that one too. Some excellent shot blocking from the Preds. But I worry their heads are going to go down.
Rangers/Caps was the more aggressive offensive game I expected, and hit the over bet there. Scott also won his Rangers in regulation bet.
The Tampa bet proved to be an +EV one even if they lost in OT. And we had the dual bet of the Avs to win.
Lovely little betting day.
Let’s see how Wednesday goes – and I mean just assume each pick is going to be the first choice, expected goalie unless we say otherwise:
Leafs vs Bruins Game 3 Betting Tips:
Scott: Well the Leafs managed to pick up the much needed win in Boston. And they did so with the help of Nylander and McMann. Matthews finally scored which must be such a relief for him as he couldn’t get the 70th goal and now that he has one, a beauty too, he can get back to what he does best.
The series goes to Toronto for the next 2 games. I would expect the Leafs to build off of that win and playing at home in front of their fans.
Leafs incl OT
Ontario: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.91 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -110 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.91 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/24 8:33:54 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: A very interesting game. In the regular season, the Leafs were better on the road, and the Bruins were also better on the road so that makes it a not the best sign for Toronto.
Leafs took advantage of their high danger chances with 2 HDGF out of a 7 HDCF which is a sick ratio. My initial thoughts here are I can’t pick a winner – as it’s to me very 50/50 and the bookies have those odds.
The Leafs offenseive metrics over the two games are excellent, so it’s just a case of if the Bruins goaltending can hold up. I really think they should have ditched the tandem and went with the hot goalie. Could be a costly error but we’ll see.
I’m going to take Bruins to win if Swayman plays and Leafs to win if Ullmark plays. I’ll post the Bruins odds due to Scott having the Leafs.
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/24 8:33:54 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Scott: The Knights pulled off the upset in game 1 in Dallas. Stone returned and of course he opened up the scoring. Also Hertl scored a big goal for them too.
With the Stars still in Dallas they can’t afford to go to Vegas down 2-0 and have to play in front of the spectacle that the Knights and their home fans will have.
I think the Stars know this more than anybody and they can’t afford going to Vegas for 2 games down 2-0 in the series.
Would have to be Stars in regulation but after the Stars only had 15 shots on goal at home I just don’t have the faith in them to pull that off here.
No Bet
Graeme: Crisis in Dallas as they can’t shake this Vegas hoodoo.
They were 100% the better team in Game 1, but that hoodoo shit is real and will be in their heads. Now the pressure is REALLY on. I’ve no idea how they will react mentally. They really just have to keep playing the same way they did in Game 1, and in theory they should win.
I’m passing on this one as the mind games and mental aspects of it are too hard to figure out. I do think the Knights have value though but it feels like way too much of a gamble fo rme.
Oilers vs Kings Game 2 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Oilers went to work in game 1. They scored the first 4 goals of the game and Hyman had a hat trick and McDavid did what McDavid does picking up 5 assists.
Would have to take the Oilers in regulation and with the game they just had and still being at home I like their chances.
Oilers in regulation
Graeme: Yeah I mean I am feeling those Oilers right now. I loved taking them in the series predictions and Game 1 was not a shock. I mean they really stifled the Kings too who had a whopping 0.2 xG by the end of the first.
Haven’t seen anything from the Kings in Game 1 to suggest anything other than Oilers in Regulation.
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -110 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/24 8:33:54 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Toronto reverse puckline of +1.5 goals
Toronto Matthews OVER 4.5 shots
Oilers WIN moneyline
Oilers Ryan Nugent-Hopkins OVER 2.5 shots
Oilers McDavid OVER 1.5 points
Oilers Bouchard OVER 2.5 shots
I’m cautious on the Leafs game for picking a side, but I think the Leafs are having a breakthrough year with a lot of things tuning up. The reverse puckline probably has horrid odds, but maybe in a parlay. Boston plays like some sort of cyborg; very organized and assertive, but the Leafs have the skill, depth, speed and assertiveness for 60 minutes to overcome the Bruins. Late morning and still no confirmation of Nylander for tonight. The crowd in Toronto will be on every play, in a good way. It’s hockey night in CANADA folks.
Oilers game is self-explanatory.
Edmonton to win the first period +154.
The First period metrics for Edmonton were so one sided, this may follow the same blueprint. And while the 2nd and 3rd periods felt more like a competitive game, you have to remember what the score line and game flow was at that point. Edmonton was up 4-0 midway thru the second period. We see it all the time in a lot of sports, you get a bit of an energy dump and start to let up when it feels like the game is over. The Kings only had success when they were trailing by four. And when they cut it to 4-2, Edmonton wasted no time regaining the four goal cushion to start the third. Kings showed fight, when their opponent may have let up too early. But they may find themselves overmatched when both teams are giving their max effort.
When the First Period Stats are in favor of Edmonton in the following
Corsi For 60 percent
Fenwick For 70 percent
Shots For 68 Percent
Scoring Chances For 75 Percent
High Danger Chances For 93 Percent
xGF 89 Percent
it’s just too overwhelming to ignore. If the Kings improve on every single one of these metrics in two days, hats off to em. But if Edmonton repeats that performance, they’re just too lethal.
I’ll also be taking Edmonton in Regulation at -115. Kings could be desperate. Or make adjustments. Also it gives me more coverage of a full game, rather than just 20 minutes. Because after all, it’s not hard to envision the Kings down 1-0 in the series outplaying Edmonton for a period. But I just can’t see it over the course of a full game. Edmonton also goes 3 for 4 on the Power Play and successfully killed off both Penalties. The Four Goals against make it feel like the Kings have a punchers chance. And maybe they do. But they’ll have to show me first.
Oilers Puckline First Period -0.5 at +154
Oilers in regulation at -115
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
Units now: +1.2
max combined units used to win a bet: 6
Oh my comment mates are so early now. The early bettor catches the biggest odd, huh? 😅
I’ll give you my leans first.
Dallas (15 shots from Vegas wtf)
Boston (suprise, suprise)
Oilers (Draisaitl 🥰)
I will stay on Boston. I really thought about betting on Toronto and I can’t back Samsonov in net. I fucking can’t do it. Also in this match there is the most value and the odd dropped already.
I take Boston ML @ 1.87 with 2 units.
Lol Yeah I had my bet mostly written up yesterday, but because of work, good luck getting me to focus and post that early again.
I was also all set to make Toronto a play but couldn’t get there. At first the Toronto line felt low with them being at home. But then when I did the reverse lines of what Boston opened at home Game 1 and 2, it wasn’t too crazy.
One thing I’m not sure about is does home ice change since it’s the playoffs? For instance I usually use 5 percent for home in regular season. But does that increase or decrease now? I’m not sure. Personally, I’ll continue to use 5 percent when pricing lines, but if someone else has an opinion, I’ll be glad to hear.
I see your concern is Samsonov, my concern for taking Toronto was Swayman. I think it was a huge mistake for Boston to go away from him after game 1. And leaves them open to all sorts of issues now going forward. They created an issue when there wasn’t one. Graeme spoke on this as well with his handicap and I thought the same.
While I was big on Dallas game 1 and expect them to bounce back, the line had moved all the way up to -175 from the -155 opener when I looked last night. It’s come back down a little bit so far today. They also had some red flags that need to be corrected for me to take them again with confidence.
I am seeing the 5.5 totals start to climb to 6’s. I’m wondering at what point these might start to get too high, and looking towards Unders may be the way to go. As the series’ go on, teams will get familiar with each other’s tactics which could benefit the defenses.
The concern would be late game craziness. Desperate teams pulling goalies or doing things out of the ordinary with nothing to lose. So I would have to look at potential first and second period Unders that don’t correlate with full game totals as possibly the way to go.
On the subject of home games.
Where does this 5% come from and are you sure that this applies to every team? Don’t you think that’s a bit too static? I mean, you can do that, but when you have various numbers flying at you, such as Colorado with their many shots against Winnipeg, which in my view clearly showed that the 2nd game (away) is in it for them, what does the 5% count for? Or let’s put it this way. If you want to work with that 5%, go for it, but then you better not look at any other numbers. That’s my take on it.
From my point of view, you have to find the right arguments for yourself. A home game can be an argument, but it doesn’t have to be, and you know that.
Well, yesterday I was quite sure about under 6 with Winnipeg and Colorado, but they scored 7. I’m not that type who bets a lot under/over, it’s really rare and I can see why, haha.
Maybe you are right with corellations between early under/over and total under/over, but to be strict I can’t see it for now. There are always things happening which will disprove your “proof” in sportsbetting.
Ultimately, there has never been a universal recipe, but there have always been trends.
Sorry for the confusion on my post. No the 5 percent does not apply to every team. And you are correct, it is a generic line. But that’s it’s purpose.
It’s used to make sure it’s being factored into the lines and when creating a win probability for the game. It’s a starting point from which you can make adjustments based on how you handicap. It can also explain why a team is priced the way it is.
I used the 5 percent by looking at the entire leagues win percentage when at home. So this year Home Teams had 710 wins. Which lands at 54.1 percent. So technically that is lower than the 5 percent I’ve been using. This is probably due to having the entire years data. When I landed on the 5 percent it was probably using quarterly and half way points as the data.
Going forward to next season, I’ll probably either use a 3.5 or 4 percent for it. Looking back the last couple seasons, the 3.5 seems like a truer number. This includes the 56 game 31 team covid season.
So for example, if you think Colorado’s should be higher, the 4 percent should be a starting point. And then you can add what you think Colorado‘s home ice advantage is from there. If you don’t feel it is being truly reflected in the current line, this would provide a potential betting opportunity for you.
I use the entire league for an average. And it’s a bigger sample size then just selecting individual teams. This creates a starting point on which you can adjust for individual teams or situations from there.
Why I try to do it. The betting public is typically reactionary. I try to avoid that. The best way is to attach a win probability to each team. Then translate that into a price for each side. This allows me to be open minded enough to bet either side, based on where I think the most value is. It also allows me to try and identify when a team has gotten too expensive, even if I think it’s the correct side.
An example of this for me personally would be the Kings. I can remember early on the narrative was Kings struggling at home. Which was true. However, over the entire season, we now see the Kings won 22 games at Home and 22 on the Road.
The early season narrative and struggles may have prevented me from taking the Kings at Home. If this narrative translated into the line prices, I probably missed out on some good Kings at Home value lines.
Hindsight is always much easier to see this. It can be much more difficult actually risking money based on the data you have available at the time. But it’s also a reminder sometimes it’s just a small sample in a long season.
The Home Ice and Vig are baked into the price. Finding out what those are and extrapolating them from the lines helps me ensure I’m properly handicapping a teams true odds to win going forward. Whereas the public will just see Team A lost, therefore next time bet Team B. That’s something I’d like to avoid, and potentially take advantage of.
Play could go either way but I took live wager on Edmonton +230 down 3-1 after the first. Thought it was a wonky first. It could either spiral and Kings could pile on, or Oilers can settle it down with a strong second. With two periods left I do think they have a better than 30 percent chance to overcome a two goal deficit.
Skinner did look like he let some easy ones in, specifically the Doughty goal. The Kempe out of mid air was smooth though. Bouchard had a forgettable first period. starting with the turnover Kopitar read and led to the first goal. And the Kempe, Kopitar, Byfield line looked great. Talbot with some big first period saves, and the Kings did a good job defensively preventing shots when the Oilers had some good chances.
Still McDavid,Kane, Perry, and Hyman all had near goals. And Anderson stacking the pads in the crease prevented another one. Chances are there, but the Oilers have to play perfect hockey second period for it to cash. And the first period was anything but.