Written by Graeme on Thursday, April 25th, 2024
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Well my first fears when I made the series prediction of the Stars winning is coming true – they have been unable to get that all-vital win and break that hoodoo, and it’s looking likely that they get sweeped.
1-1 with my bets yesterday. The Bruins fielded Swayman and got the W, and the Kings showed what got them in the playoffs with a great 5-4 OT win over the Oilers.
Today just the two games which is nice. Let’s see what we got as both series change venues:
Lightning vs Panthers Game 3 Betting Tips:
Scott: What a goalie battle game 2 was. Both made amazing saves and the game needed overtime. I said I liked the Panthers to win but it would have to be in regulation and I was put off of that and that’s a good thing.
Game 3 is in Tampa Bay so I would expect the Lightning to get the win at home. Both goalies are playing great which makes it tough to predict.
But the Lightning need to win or risk getting swept at home.
Lightning win incl OT
Ontario: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.93 Odds at Bovada
USA: -108 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.92 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/25 10:33:25 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Although they didn’t win Game 2, backing the Lightning was the +EV bet to make based on the game going to OT and the odds.
My gut says I want to back them again but now we have two playoff data games, the metrics are actually a bit concerning.
The Florida Panthers offense is DOMINANT. CF% of 56%, FF% of 54.86%, SF% 60.75%, xGF% of 62%. This is insane.
I just don’t know if Tampa can stop them. I was ready to back the Lightning here, but looking at those metrics I’m very put off. I would kind of like the over, but then you have two hot goalies as well.
Not seeing anything here. No Bet.
Islanders vs Hurricanes Game 3 Betting Tips:
Scott: After the Isles were up 3-0 with 10 minutes left in the 3rd only to lose the game 5-3 that may have killed any chance the Isles had at winning this series.
They had only 12 shots including only 1 in the 3rd period. That’s not going to cut it in the playoffs and certainly not against a team as strong as the Canes are.
With the way game 2 went I like the Canes chances to win here. But the Isles are going to have their home fans cheering them on so they may make a game of this.
No bet.
Graeme: Similar to the Stars one yesterday where I am concerned about the Islanders mentality. The way they lost that game was insane. I lean more the Canes here but not enough to take them in regulation on the road.
No bet.
I took Florida vs Tampa Bay Over 5.5 at -130. Not sure how I feel about it. Goaltenders have been good. Florida’s defense has been one of the better ones most of the season.
Florida has done a really good job limiting Tampa’s shots first two games.
Even still Tampa has been able to score two in each game. Now at home in a must win. If there was ever a time Tampa would contribute three goals it’s now. Tampa also scored a lot at home. They averaged 4 goals per game over their last 11 Home games.
Floridas xGF has been extremely high for first two playoff games. High Danger shots were in the high double digits in both games. If that continues we could see them find the back of the net more as well. Florida is also able to score a lot of mid range goals and has the shooters to do so.
Empty netter or two could possibly contribute. Tampa needs the win and in certain game scenario’s this could add to the scoring late.
Both games so far have only hit five, but some of the metrics don’t really back it. Both teams have the offensive players and weapons. This doesn’t have to be a 10 goal back and forth game. But it could easily reach 6.
Florida vs Tampa Over 5.5 at -130.
I wanted to do something with the Islanders game. Especially in the first period to take advantage of them playing in front of their home crowd. But nothings really jumping out to me.
Carolina Jarvis to score is going at +250. I’m thinking about that. He’s scored two goals in four games vs the Islanders during the regular season. And one in the first two games of the Playoffs. He’s scored 14 goals over the last 21 games of the regular season. And 23 of his 33 goals were scored away from home. With the Islanders switching goalies, maybe he can get to Sorokin at some point in this game.
Brandon Hagel to score a point @1,77
GL
Units now: +3.16
max combined units used to win a bet: 6
Just wanted to tell you that im out now until the next season.Things to do came up and I can’t focus on betting now.
See you back somewhere in the next regular season. 😉