Written by Graeme on Thursday, April 27th, 2023
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Nice to see the Kraken get the W last night, and win me my Kraken +1.5 series bet as well.
I wish I was able to back them last night as well. I’ve talked them up most of the series. Problem is there really needs to be something in the data to back up a bet like that, or overwhelming odds that I can’t ignore, and there wasn’t.
It was an exceptionally close game and is going to make for an enticing Game 6.
Florida also stayed alive. That was a fairly even game, and it was good to see that Panthers offense deliver. Going to make for an interesting Game 6, that’s for sure.
Three games tonight, and everyone still remains in the playoffs. We could see the Jets and Lightning get eliminated here.
Leafs vs Lightning Game 5 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Leafs have manged to take a 3-1 series lead and have chance to win the series at home. They were down 4-1 but came back and won game 4.
But if any team can handle having their backs against the wall it’s the Lightning who are very familiar with playoff hockey.
I have no idea who wins this game.
No Bet
Graeme: Looking at the last two games, Tampa have been the better side by a long shot. They managed to collapse twice, with Vasy having an absolute shocker that last game. He was a liability.
This series should be 3-1 to Lightning, not the Leafs.
I have definite concerns about Tampa and their confidence being shot. Especially with it mostly related to the goalie. There’s nothing worse than no confidence in the man at the back, as it can drastically change the way you play.
But don’t let the results, especially that last game, take away from that absolutely pitiful performance the Leafs put in, in that crucial game. I want the Leafs to go out on personal levels, but even I was yelling at the TV at just how inefficent they were looking.
Although the results didn’t go their way, Tampa have been dominant in 3 of the 4 games so far. Getting such a good price on them, I’m happy to back Lighning incl OT.
I will note that the metrics are not overwhelming in Tampas favour. Corsi & Fenwick yeah, but Leafs have racked up a slightly better xGF, and are creating more high danger chances overall. I’m not writing off Toronto at all. But I think of Game 3 & 4, and also Game 1, and I feel Tampa are worth betting here.
Note that while BetOnline. have 2.36 odds, I’m listing Bet365 due to the early payout special at 0.01 less.
Ontario: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +136 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/27 7:01:05 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Devils vs Rangers Game 5 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Rangers won both games on the road to open the series. The road team has won all 4 games so far.
Schmid has been good and picked up both wins for the Devils. The Rangers have scored 2 goals over the last 2 games after scoring 10 over the 1st two.
I would think that the trend of road teams winning should continue but the Devils have kept the Rangers offense in check.
No Bet
Graeme: Oh man what is with this Rangers offense? Total collapse. That last game, the Devils defense FINALLY came to life too and really stifled them.
Looking at the metrics too, I’m surprised to see that in 5 vs 5 the Devils offense is pretty darn dominant. All situations it’s a bit closer, but the Devils have been putting up the numbers even if they aren’t scoring as much as they should.
I was actually ready to skip this game. The reason is as I said when doing my series bet – this can go either way due to the Devils defense, or the Rangers offense. Game 1 & 2 saw it go one way, and Game 3 & 4 saw it go the other.
But diving into the Devils offensive metrics, I feel I’ve got to back them here. Devils incl OT
Ontario: 1,87 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
USA: -118 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/27 7:01:05 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Knights vs Jets Game 5 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Knights have a chance to win the series at home here.
No Morrissey, Scheifele left the last game, Ehlers game time decision. That three huge pieces of the Jets team.
The Jets are going to have their hands full here but with the missing players and in Vegas with the series on the line I’ll take the Knights who have won the last 3 in a row.
Knights win in regulation
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: -1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -115 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/27 7:01:05 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: This is the type of scenario that I swear the Jets thrive on. Down 3-1, missing key players, everyone is writing them off. Watch them come out and blast the Knights, and extend this series one more game. (Then lose like 4-0 in Winnipeg).
I’m a sucker for punishment I guess. I swore off the Jets in the regular season, I swore off them in the playoffs. I should know better. But my god losing Scheifele is a massive loss.
Here’s the thing – the metrics don’t go overwhelmingly inf avour of the Knights. In all situs, Jets have a better Corsi and Fenwick, xG they are just behind. It’s actually fairly close.
Bah. I can’t bring myself to do it. I want to back Knights in regulation so much here, but I know Winnipeg too well. I can’t take one last slap to the face from them betting wise, and the data isn’t really in the favour of that bet anyway. No bet.
Full game OVER 5.5: Leafs/Lightning
Lean: full game OVER 5.0: Jets/Knights
Strong lean: to WIN moneyline: Vegas
I just want to watch the Leafs game to see if they are for real and if Tampa is truly having major troubles or not. Vegas is ready to move on and Winnipeg is certainly in trouble tonight.
The attractive thing about Over/Under bets is that you’re betting on the style of play and sometimes that’s more consistent than picking matchup winner/spread results. With the Leafs and Jets games, I like that approach tonight. The one main risk I see there is that if Winnipeg’s offense isn’t going to be there, the total may be an UNDER, with the Knights shutting down the Jets and protecting something like a 3-1 lead.
Is Boston in real trouble now? I don’t think so. Is Tampa in trouble? Far more likely, but then it’s the Leafs, who would have to shake off 56 years of smug corporate MO QUIT to move on in the playoffs. I think Tampa shows up to teach these upstarts a lesson.