Written by Graeme on Sunday, April 27th, 2025
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I’m glad my spidey sense was tingling yesterday about that Lightning/Panthers game as yep – the road team won, and in style too with a 5-1 thrashing by Tampa.
Knights battled hard to come back against the Wild, and tie that series up at 2-2. Their goaltending and defense has gone to pot but luckily their offense stepped up.
Leafs/Sens goes to Game 5, and from reading the delusional Leafs fans on reddit, the theory is Leafs let them win to “get more money for the organization”. I know all fanbases have their idiots – but Leafs fans are a whole new level.
Let’s look at todays – I’m running a half marathon in about an hour so my own write-ups will be short and I won’t do “best odds per country” today just write the odds in.
Blues vs Jets Game 4:
Scott: The Blues got back into the series in game 3. The chased Hellebuyck from the net after he allowed 6 goals.
The Blues got a huge game from Buchnevich who scored a hat trickand added an assist and Fowler who had goal and 4 assists.
With this game still in St. Louis and after the Blues went off for 7 the momentum has to be in their favor. But again this is the Jets who were the best team in the league and it wasn’t a fluke. They know how to respond after taking a loss like this.
Jets win incl OT (1.75 888)
Graeme: Like I’ve been saying – goaltending depending on the team is a high variance factor, and that’s what it is for the Jets. They are one of the best examples of it this post-season. Based on that, I think I could only take them at above 2.00 odds as it really appears to be a 50/50 flip in that regard.
So does that mean I should take the Blues as they are above 2.15? I’d like to, but I want to see more creativity from them. An xGF/60 of just 1.88 over 3 games is brutal. So I gotta go No Bet.
Devils vs Hurricanes Game 4:
Scott: Game 3 was a goalie battle. The shot counts weren’t crazy or anything despite the game going to double overtime but it was the quality of some of the saves by both goalies.
The Devils were up 2-0 in the 3rd but the Canes never gave up and managed to tie it. After the marathon that was game 3 I really don’t know who wins as I’m sure fatigue will start to play a factor. And with the way Markstrom and Andersen played it makes it even tougher.
No Bet
Graeme: Goalie variance will affect this game, but I like the Devils xGF at least. I’ve been a fan of the Canes this series, but I do see at lot in the Devils offensive metrics.
I think at home, with goalie variance, I can justify a small play on Devils incl OT (2.50 sports interaction). If I had more time I think I’d go with a player prop instead – think I am going to start doing that going forward rather than “no bets”.
Canadiens vs Capitals Game 4:
Scott: What a difference a player makes. For the first time in this series the Habs had Xhekaj in their lineup and the whole team played with more confidence.
Game 3 was crazy and saw both starting goalie goalie leave with injuries and also had Wilson and Anderson fight in an empty bench. The Habs outshot the Caps 40-21 and out hit them for the first time in the series.
Game 4 is still in Montreal and as long as the Habs play with the confidence they had they have a decent shot. I’m just put off with the goalie situation so I have to pass.
No Bet
Graeme: I’d love to bet the Habs here but yeah with the goaltending etc – who the hell knows. And at their price I don’t think it’s worth it. No Bet
Oilers vs Kings Game 4:
Scott: The Oilers scored first and it was their first lead in this series. The also scored their first powerplay goal. The Kings were up 4-3 after the 2nd period but went off in the 3rd scoring twice in 10 seconds and adding 2 empty net goals to win 7-4.
The Kings look like a different team on road. The still put up 4 after scoring 6 in each game 1 and 2. The Oilers got production from Bouchard, McDavid, Kane and Brown.
With the Oilers still in Edmonton with the momentum of winning their first of the series I do like them to win and even it up. I also don’t mind the over here as 11, 8 and 11 goals has been quite the show.
Oilers win incl OT (1.74 Sports Interaction) and a separate play of Over 6 incl OT (1.80 bet365)
Graeme: Not a fan of the Oilers odds, and I’m hesitant about the over purely due to that same deal last year where there was that tight 1-0 game. No bet, and tomorrow I’ll be doing player props if I don’t see a straight bet, because I hate writing “No Bet” so much. It’s the bloody playoffs; we need action!
No bets drive me insane as well… i don’t know why, soI usually bet something… anything i feel. I know you are a metrics guy, what if as well as player props you looked at Team Totals over/under for games??? Just as a potential other angle for you…. They sometimes just add more noise like
St-Louis fornexample on the over/under @ 2.5 goals…. Well we know Winnipeg can shut them down, they have the 1.88xGF BUT have scored more than that twice already? Does Winnipeg show up? I dont know? LOL
Have a great race, hope the weather is sunny BUT cool enough not to overheat,,, after long winter…. Sunny days seem too damn hot!! Hahah
It makes it tricky for us especially the playoffs because there are a lot that qualify as “no bets”. Like – when two teams have played each other 3 or 4 times, is there anything we have really learned from all of that to say with certainty that a team is going to win Game 5? Or that it’s going to go over?
and it really sucks as we know people come here looking for action etc. Chatted with Scott about it this morning and we’re gonna try player props when we have a no bet.
I have tried in the past using metrics for player props etc but I haven’t had a winnable strategy. Tried to apply it to daily fantasy sports as well etc. But always willing to give things another go we’ll just have a disclaimer about them.
Sometimes it’s about the betting odds too right? Like in broad strokes what have I said about the Jets all playoffs and a large part of the regular season? Their success relies on their goalie, which is a high variance deal. So it’s a case of figuring out how high variance that is, then betting accordingly. Like if you estimate he will shit the bed 50% of the time then anything above 2.00 depending on the odds etc is worth it.
Problem is like you said – there’s more than just that. I wanted to make that play today but the Blues xGF concerned me greatly. Then they go out and light it up
LOL! Did they ever light it up eh! WTF??
I never did bet StLouis over 2.5 as I felt not right about it and value BUT eeeesh! Venue change will be good for Winnipeg here…
I wish I had any value to help you with player props BUT im nowhere near anything either. Im trying to work out a goalie system,,, lets just say its a coin flip right now at best and not working great either!! LOL
Ps… i dont only come here for bets. I really just like the hockey insight more than anything and consider the tips a bonus. BUT thats just me I guess