Written by Graeme on Friday, April 28th, 2023
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A 2-0 night for me, and Scott also went 1-0 for a perfect evening.
Scott took the Knights in regulation, and they duly delivered as the Winnipeg Jets become the first team to be eliminated in this seasons NHL playoffs.
I was so glad the Devils offense came to live yesterday. Like I said, I was ready to pass on that game then I saw their impressive offensive metrics. It’s always nice spotting something like that before it happens.
Tampa got the win to force a Game 6. When the Leafs pulled the goalie at 3:30 left and 3-1 down man, they just seemed inevitable. I really thought they were going to pull it off again.
That was a much better performance from Toronto I thought, even if they couldn’t get the win.
BTW something I want to point out about advanced metrics – last night was a good example. Tampa “won” the xG battle 4.25 to 3.81. But that is very tainted. That empty net chance that hit the post bumped their xG up huge as it it had a 75.5% chance of scoring. And then the empty net goal that they scored had a 92.3% chance of scoring.
Basically you take both of those out, and Tampas xG is nowhere near as impressive. So just something to remember when it comes to advanced metrics – there’s so much more to it than just what the numbers say.
It’s why this is the first season where I’ve said that I finally feel I have a strong grasp on advanced metrics, and am able to use them to my advantage such as that Devils pick yesterday. I’ve been using and studying them for years, but there is so much to them and it’s not something you can learn overnight.
Back to a 4 game evening. Let’s get to it:
Islanders vs Hurricanes Game 6 Betting Tips:
Scott: With the series back in New York the Isles will again have their fans behind them.
They are going to need all the help they can get as the Canes are a tough team.
The Canes now have 2 games to win the series but the Isles are a pain to beat and outshot the Canes 36-22.
Should be a good game but I’m backing the Canes here.
Canes win incl overtime
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.05 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bovada
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/28 9:22:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: I’ve been a bit disappointed in the Canes in this series. Their offense isn’t performing like they should be. Islanders offense is outperforming them in a couple of key metrics, although Canes still dominate in Corsi and Fenwick.
I’m going to stay away from this game. I feel like it should be more a 1.90 vs 1.90 game odds wise than 1.83 to 2.00, but it’s very close and feels too much of a gamble for me.
Panthers vs Bruins Game 6 Betting Tips:
Scott: What a game that last one was. They traded goals the whole time with the Panthers scoring 1st and last in overtime. Ullmark dropped the ball on that final play turning it over at the worst possible time.
The Bruins need to win this game as they can’t let it get to game 7 and risk losing it after the season they had.
Would need to be Bruins in regulation and the Panthers are at home where they have lost both games in the series.
Bruins in regulation
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -115 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/28 9:22:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Like I said before the series began – the Panthers has a rare ability to unlock this Bruins defense. We saw that on display in Game 5.
Now the series heads back to Florida. Where the Panthers got thumped 4-2 and 6-2.
Need to see Panthers continue things. Against a lot of teams I’d say the opposition would be rattled after that game, but not Boston.
Anyway as long as the Panthers don’t mentally give up – which sadly is a real possibility – I think they can be competitive in this game.
Looking at the advanced metrics overall, the Panthers offense can be performing a lot better. At 2.60, I don’t hate a bet on the Panthers here. They’re not as good in the metrics but it’s in relation to chance conversion and we know they can actually score.
My biggest concern is if the heads go down or not. I’m going to go with Over 6 incl OT but it does come with that advisory – I’m not concerned about Boston scoring, but my concern is Boston score a couple early and just completely kill off Florida.
Ontario: 1.85 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.85 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
USA: -110 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/28 9:22:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Stars Game 6 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Stars took advantage of an early Foligno major and scored and never looked back. Oettinger picked up the first shutout of the postseason for any team.
With the Stars winning the last 2 games, one on the road, they are riding momentum. But the Wild are a tough team and will be looking to bounce back here.
I want to take the Wild here but after the shutout I’d rather skip.
No Bet
Graeme: Disappointing to see the trading wins stop, with the Stars winning 2 in a row. I mentioned before that game the metrics were in favour of the Stars, and they duly delivered.
Neither team is performing well at goal conversion in 5 vs 5. Wild have generally better metrics in a few key spots there. It’s when we break out of 5 vs 5 and look at all situations we see the difference. The Stars power play unit has been stellar.
It’s tricky because yeah the Wild should realize power play goals are the issue, and be more disciplined and more aware of that. But we’re talking about 6 games in. Stars have scored 17 goals, 9 of which have been on the PP. There’s a real mental balance in that, and any time the Stars get a PP they will have that much more momentum.
So that is what it all comes down to. Honestly, I’m not a big fan of this bet due to the PP situation. In the regular season, it’s not that big a deal but when you’re playing back to back in the playoffs, then it is a much bigger factor., But I’m going to go with Wild incl OT anyway. I feel there’s a slight edge due to the 5 vs 5, and hopefully their PK unit has been working their socks off.
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.93 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -107 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.93 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/28 9:22:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Kraken vs Avalanche Game 6 Betting Tips:
Scott: As if the Kraken, in their first postseason, have the Avalanche on the verge of being eliminated.
The Avalanche need to start converting on the powerplay as they went 0-2 in the last game and are 1-12 in the the series.
If the Kraken win the series then so be it, they deserve it. But with the Avs getting Makar back I like them to win the game but would need to take them in regulation so I’m skipping instead.
No Bet
Graeme: This is one of those series I’ve decided I am not betting on anymore. I’ve spoke up the Kraken since before the series even began, and won my Kraken +1.5 for the series prop. However I’ve only been able to back them once, and it was when they lost on the 22nd.
Missing out on those other wins at good avlue has me frustrated, and I’m fine leaving the series as it is now and enjoying my series win bet which at 2.15 odds, at least makes me profitable for this series.
By the metrics – I will say they’re an easy bet at the odds of about 2.35. 5 vs 5 metrics they are better than the Avs in every single category, with a much higher HDCF. It’s actually different in all situations, with Avs better in most of the metrics.
Win or lose, I’d say Kraken is a fine value bet to make. And if you lose it, well that’s how hockey goes but it’s still an +EV bet. But due to the reasons stated above, I’m going with no bet as I’d just feel like I’m “chasing”.
It wasn’t just Ullmark. McAvoy made a pinch and decided to hang out for awhile in the slot. Marchand made a bad pass back to the point. And of course Ullmark craps himself.
Will be a great game, lots of value on a regulation tie bet. Bergie anytime. Pasta over SOG. Looks like a tight game to me so over is iffy.
Canes finish things up.
Stars-Wild OT
Avs get their heads out of their asses and get the W
GLTA SDB
A weak lean for Over 6.0 in the Bruins game. Picking the lowest number offered.
Otherwise, Dodgers full game Over 8.0.
It will be interesting to see the Boston game. I expect ZERO goofups by Boston, now that Ullmark blundered (very rarely!), which puts Tkachuk at a disadvantage. I like how Seattle is playing and will enjoy that one!
if i have to choose 4 -5 players to do score a point today which should i choose? i mean goal, assist and 2nd assist.