Written by Graeme on Saturday, April 6th, 2024
Follow @BetNHL
Whew – feel like I dodged a bullet yesterday with those Knights. The Coyotes goalscoring team came to town, and went ballistic on Vegas.
Red Wings offense got going but they had their own goaltending issues, and Rangers came out with the win.
It’s Saturday. Usual fair amount of games. Let’s get right into it and the usual disclaimer that at this point in the season, expect a real lack of write-ups. Only if a game on first glance peaks my interest will I write more as I go through it.
Penguins vs Lightning:
Two teams playing well. Hard to really separate them actually. Odds are close to 50/50 which seems right.
The over 6 line has me interested. Both teams scoring almost 4 goals per game last 10. Both overperforming. Tampa should get goals against this Pens D and they are clinical at the moment. Lightning SCGF/60 is nice. Feels like Tampa should score at least 3 here but over 2.5 is only 1.52. You can bet “3 or more goals” but below my threshold at 1.62.
So the question is can Pittsburgh score? Tampa have a top 10 xGA over last 10 at the moment. Pens did get 5 against the Rangers though, and 4 against the Canes who have good xGA/60. Lightning 4th best GA/60 but against – Carolina. Even the Stars Pens still sneaked two against them.
I think there’s enough to go with it here. Goaltending is a concern as Nedeljkovic has been performing well and Vasy has had a few really hot performances lately so I’m banking on these offenses to continue to overperform.
Over 6 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
USA: -115 Odds at GT Bets.
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/06 9:35:19 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blackhawks vs Stars:
Would have to be Stars -1.5 on the road. The data is close but I just don’t think enough value.
Bruins vs Panthers:
Nothing for this one. Metrics slight lean on Boston.
Wild vs Jets:
Nothing for this one. Metrics slight lean on Wild actually, so there might be slight value there. Weighted metrics bring it down a bit though and they’re a hard team to back with confidence.
Sharks vs Blues:
Eh no.
Senators vs Devils:
Also a no. Data all fairly close and odds seem right.
Blue Jackets vs Flyers:
Good golly no.
Canadiens vs Leafs:
Nothing for this one. Not really much in the metrics jumping out either. Leafs in theory should score a bunch though.
Islanders vs Predators:
Nothing here. Preds should build on that Blues win but they still have some defensive frailties that are an issue.
Flames vs Oilers:
Nothing here. Oilers should handle them but you never know with these sorta games. The odds don’t make it worth it especially on the road where you have to think Calgary wll be up for it.
Kings vs Canucks:
Bookies have these odds right it seems.
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
Units now: +40.85 🥳
max combined units used to win a bet: 163
Okay, let’s try to win a bet today.
Tampa won the last 3 away games, time for a break. Pittsburgh on fire right now, they could win this to get closer to the playoffs.
Let’s start with Pittsburgh ML @ 1.92 with 1 unit
😍😍😍 freaking hot. Pittsburgh 4-1 I’m on fire!
I will post 1-2 more bets later. Next possible match Minnesota vs Winnnipeg. 😇
Wow, what a match. Freaking Tampa nearly destroyed my confidence in 1 period.😂
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
Units now: +41.77 🥳
max combined units used to win a bet: 163
The next bet could be a bit better, but you never know.
ML odd of Winnipeg dropped from 1.8 to 1.68.
Wisdom of the crowd gives us 75% chance for a regular Winnipeg win. Stats are on the side of Winnipeg. They lost the last 3 away games and today is a good spot to win again. The problem is, that they are already in the playoffs and don’t need to fight for a win.
Nevertheless, I take Winnipeg ML @ 1.68 with 1 unit
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
Units now: +42.45 🥳
max combined units used to win a bet: 163
One last bet. The worst bet of the day. Ahh I’m really curious to see if I’m right here.
The Islanders lost the last 10 h2h games against Nashville. 😲 What do you think is the probability to win 11 in a row? I see the probability for the Islanders to win 1 much higher with all circumstances. Besides that the Islanders will have the better goalie in net. I hope Saros doesn’t start, but in contrary to the last 10 h2h games, I expect the Islanders to pick up a win and to improve their stats against Nashville.
I take New York Islanders ML @ 1.87 with 1 unit
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
Units now: +43.32 🥳
max combined units used to win a bet: 163
Okay, one more bet:
LA Kings ML @ 1.8 with 1 unit
Dude ur on fire! Haha
Hope you will continue today, i’ll probably follow you