Written by Graeme on Saturday, December 17th, 2022
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1-0 last night. We were celebrating halfway through the third period which was nice as the Blues thumped the Flames 5-2. Those odds for the Flames to win seemed a bit silly.
Wild covered the spread, and Coyotes upset the Islanders.
Saturday. Lotta games. You know the drill.
Let’s get to it – starting a bit late today unfortunately due to internet issues.
Bruins vs Jackets:
If you’re betting Boston you’re going to have to do -2.5. Ew. No thanks. I think by the data this one could sneak under looks to be like a Bruins 3-2 or 4-2 type of game. But teams have ran up scores against the Jackets recently, and while the Jackets offense is struggling they do still look good for a couple of goals here.
Red Wings vs Senators:
Bookies have this as a fairly even game. Wings come in on a losing run and Sens on a good run. Sens offensive metrics are very good. Sens to win the race to 3 goals at 2.20 is quite tempting.
Wings offense is a bit cold right now. But thats against a few top 10 defenses (and the Panthers). They could get back on track against the Sens defense here which is below average. Yeah no play.
Oilers vs Ducks:
Ducks ended their losing streak with a win in Montreal. Oilers should score a lot of goals here on paper. Of course it’s the Oilers so they could just as easily get shut out.
Unfortunately the bookies expect that too. Over 3.5 Oilers goals is unplayable at 1.48 for example. Race to 3 goals is just 1.44 odds.
It’s a frustrating one where the math points to at least 3 Oilers goals, possibly 4, but there’s no bet that makes sense from a value standpoint.
There is the handicap at -1.5. But the Oilers xGA is poor, and the odds on it are just 1.76. If you’re looking for a play I’d say that is probably it but I’d need better odds to advise it.
Hurricanes vs Stars:
Canes come in on a good wining run, albeit over weaker teams. Dallas just had two impressove road victories in New Jersey and Washington.
Canes are priced about 1.71 and I think those odds are pretty much bang on.
Flyers vs Rangers:
Flyers in off that surprise win over the Devils. The New York Rangers have managed to put together a few wins in a row, albeit with a couple of OT victories.
I actually don’t hate Philly here. Advanced metric wise last 10 they generally have the edge. Only differences are in actual goals scored and conceded, and SCGF/A.
Hart was a star in the last game and that’s the Philly problem they really need him tp step up. If he steps up today then you know 2.65 odds for Philly isn’t bad at all.
Not a play I can make though. Rangers look like they’re finally getting some self-belief and confidence. It won’t surprise me at all if the Flyers pull this one off though.
Canadiens vs Lightning:
It’s not great odds, but I do still see value on Lightning to win the Race to 3 Goals.
By the metrics, Tampa should score 3 and likely 4. Habs could also get 3 but it does seem more likely the Lightning rack up the goals. Tampa team total over 3.5 is only 1.68 so zero value there in going for a 4th goal.
Last 10 Tampa have an xGF/60 of 3.47 with an SCGF/60 of 3.38, and a GF/60 of 4.08. Habs GA/60 of 3.34, xGA/60 of 3.64, and SCGA/60 of 3.05.
Tampa not scoring at least 3 goals here should be a big surprise, and I think it’s fine to risk them to win that race to 3.
Ontario: 1.66 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.66 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -150 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.66 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/17 12:04:14 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Capitals vs Leafs:
Caps nice winning run cut short at home to Dallas. Leafs also coming in after a loss to the New York Rangers.
Nothing for this one. Leafs should win, but it could be close. Leafs SCGA/60 is 1.2 which is superb over the last 10. Very respectable that.
Devils vs Panthers:
Devils stumbling quite a bit. Bookies still have them good favourites over an inconsistent Panthers team. This seems an incredible 50/50 game. So there’s probably value on the Panthers here.
However the Panthers have that illness going through the team, and even if players are playing who knows if they are healthy etc. Tkachuk expected to be back today.
Feels like such a close game I’ll probably chuck something on the game going to OT myself at 4.25. With how 50/50 this game looks in the metrics it’s got value. Just hard to really advise those.
Coyotes vs Sabres:
Coyotes on a B2B here hosting a Buffalo team coming in off a couple of good results.
By the goals scored and conceded by both teams, you would expect this game to have goals galore written all over it. Except the Coyotes just have that golden touch with goals right now – they are overperforming.
We’re getting decent value on Sabres Over 3.5 Goals. Most of the metrics point towards that except the Coyotes SCGA/60. There is enough from this Coyotes team not to put me on the Race to 3 bet.
You might think if I am betting Buffalo to score at least 4, then picking the over would make sense. But I am not 100% convinced on the Coyotes getting the goals to match, even with Sabres poor defensive metrics.
This does all make a Buffalo win more appealing, but despite the Coyotes low xG they HAVE been able to score.
Ahhh this is a tricky one. I was looking at a more risky Sabres -1.5, but I think I’m going to stick with my initial instincts on this one – Sabres Over 3.5 Goals incl OT/SO.
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -130 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/17 12:04:14 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Avalanche vs Predators:
Two teams I have no real interest in backing. Nothing really jumping out in the metrics either.
Knights vs Islanders:
Knights strung a couple of wins together and host the Islanders on a B2B. Seems a fairly close game in all honesty. I don’t really feel good about backing either right now.
Canucks vs Jets:
Based on these games I am going to get to bed early tonight! Not a really appealing one here betting wise either. By the metrics, I’d give the edge to the Jets. Scoring more last 10, better Corsi and Fenwick, beter xG, GA etc. Yeah wait a second why am I not betting the Jets here?
Yeah they have been a letdown team at times but I’d give them the edge here for sure. They’re just…..better. Road form is good, Canucks home form isn’t good.
Yeah by the numbers, this is a play on Winnipeg. They’re a team I really don’t like betting but I really can’t ignore the data and the odds. Jets to win incl OT/SO if Hellebuyck starts
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -105 Odds at Intertops.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/17 12:04:14 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Kings vs Sharks:
Actually this one might be a play as well. O/U is over 6. Both teams scoring over 3 and conceding over 3 last 10. xGF both over 3, xGA Kings slightly low at 2.95.
SCG numbers back it up except Kings SCGF/60 of 2.47. A minor concern but it checks most of the other boxes.
Kings have put up a few goose eggs from times. But that probably just brings some of the above metrics down.
Definitely a couple of questions in regard to goaltending. If Copley is in and still performs well etc. But I think there’s enough to go with Over 6 incl OT/SO.
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.90 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -111 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/17 12:04:14 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Bruins and over 5.5 in regulation
Red Wings in regulation
Oilers and over 5.5 in regulation
Canes in regulation
Lightning and over 5.5 in regulation
Flyers – Rangers draw in regulation
Leafs in regulation
Devils – Panthers over 6.5 in regulation
Sabres in regulation
Avalanche -1.5
Jets in regulation
Knights and over 5.5 in regulation
Was waiting to see what you had to say today, just got it before the first couple of games! Good stuff!
Some weekend for Canes, first they play Stars, then they got Penguins tomorrow. I’m specially interested in this one tomorrow, and I think it’ll be the a great watch! Can’t wait! I love watching certain teams these days; Canes, Leafs, Lightning and Penguins. I’d say Bruins too, but their last couple of games have been very disappointing.
Oh and Wild looked good yesterday. The Kaprizov/Zuccarello duo must be one of the best in the NHL. Love watching them play!
Yeah sorry saw your message when you posted but was knee deep in the last few games and wanted to get them in so I could have a quick nap ha.
I agree with you a lot of fun teams to watch. Although this season I feel there are a lot more inconsistent/streaky teams than is normal.
Tage Thompson to get at least 2 points tonight
Lean: Oilers Hyman OVER 3.5 shots
Nothing else today. Not a lot of time to dig into game info. Best of luck all!
NOTE: I was having constant problems logging in to post comments. I had been using Firefox. I switched to Chrome and suddenly…………..no problems! I blame all my losing bets over the last month, on Firefox only. Onwards and upwards!
U made a great case for Sabres in reg vs a huge drop off in goalies tonite.
Yeah that was a tough one – however just because Coyotes offense should regress doesn’t mean it will be this game, especially with the Sabres defensive metrics ATM.