Written by Graeme on Saturday, December 23rd, 2023
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A 1-0 night last night, as the Jets did the business. I wish all games were like that. Metrics overwhelmingly say a team should win? And then they do with no fuss. More of that please, less of that variance.
Oilers what a big game for them. Very impressive result and I know quite a few people will be sick at that one as I saw a lot of backing on the Rangers yesterday.
Habs offense didn’t mind the road game and stepped up big.
Big Saturday slate then no games until the 27th. Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas and all that. Hope y’all have a great time.
Predators vs Stars:
Seems a bit of an even game. The metrics for both teams make it quite hard to call as can be big variance on both sides. Not seeing a play here.
Panthers vs Knights:
I mean I quite like the Knights here to be honest, but the concern is their goaltending at the moment. And so you’re basically backing the Panthers offensive woes to continue.
Of course even if they do, Knights can often score the goals of their own so it makes it an interesting one. Panthers do have solid enough defensive metrics though although that never stops the Knights.
It’s close, but I just don’t think I can back the Knights here. Panthers have the 2nd best xGF in NHL last 10. Good chance it comes to fruition here. I would say it’s 50/50, so value on Vegas at least.
Wild vs Bruins:
Wild actually look the better team on paper. But these two just played and I’m happy to pass based on that. I would totally lean on Minnesota here though.
Devils vs Red Wings:
Neither team worth backing at all and SCGF stats are weak.
Senators vs Penguins:
Sens continue to be a dumpster fire. Wonder if the trip home will help. The metrics don’t really lean Pittsburghs way. Intriguing game, no bet.
Capitals vs Lightning:
Nothing here. I could see Washington sneak it but I think the odds would need to be higher to back them.
Blue Jackets vs Leafs:
First thought is this could go over. Bookies have the line at 7. Goals for and against back it up. xG stats are close – the big issue is Jackets xGF/60 at just 2.66 as they are overscoring. Then Leafs decent SCGA/60 plus you figure they will try and tighten up after the Sabres result.
Martin Jones confirmed for Leafs who has had two disasters recently, but did shut out the Pens.
Tricky one. My concern is the Jackets being able to score but I can’t back the Leafs goals as it’d have to be over 4.5 which at 2.40 is silly. These two did have that insane game just last week. And the way hockey works, could see it being like a 1-0 game now just for fun.
Ah I’m going with it. Should hopefully be a fun Saturday night game and Jackets offense just sound confident that they can keep producing.
Over 7 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.97 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -103 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
(Odds correct as of 2023/12/23 10:08:05 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Rangers vs Sabres:
Could be another decent game for the over with the goals & xG all pointing towards it. SCG stats don’t go that way though, and the Rangers just on a B2B. Buffalo offense not consisent at all. I’ll pass on this one.
Hurricanes vs Islanders:
Looks like quite a tight one with the Islanders offense being a real wild card. This one is a pass.
Blues vs Blackhawks:
Blues with that nice Florida win….unfortunately. Hawks coming off the loss against Montreal. St. Louis are just stupid odds here. Their GA/xGA are pitiful. No bet.
Ducks vs Kraken:
Things are pretty close b etween these teams. What stand out is the Ducks GA & xGA. But the Kraken have a brutal SCGF. I lean the Kraken here but not enough to take them in regulation. I THINK they should do it and get the goals though.
Avalanche vs Coyotes:
Eh – I could see Avs pulling off an upset here but I don’t think there is enough to fully support it. The odds do make it tempting though. Avs much better CF & FF, while FA & FA the same. Actually yeah the more I look – Avs offense is generally just too good. No bet, as it’s too reliant on Coyotes goaltending.
Kings vs Flames:
Nothing here. Kings are a bit of a dumpster fire at the moment and hella inconsistent. But I’m not ready to back the Flames. Kings SCGF/60 is a big concern tho.
Canucks vs Sharks:
Would have to be Canucks -1.5. Data doesn’t support it so no bet.
so far i’ve went with
Vegas Stone to score +230
Vegas Pietrangelo to score +600
these are reaches with super low expectations. More of a gives me something to do, rather than me thinking I’ve found something of actual value. I focused on Vegas because Florida was quickest to confirm their starting goalie today. I haven’t looked at the late night games yet. I’m hoping Pietrangelo hits and I can call it a day lol. So chances are he won’t. There are probably way better options and if I can find one I’ll try to post. But it is quite tedious especially with a 14 game slate. I just know I’ll be bored when the NHL is off until Wednesday and wish I put more time into finding something. Of course Wednesday is another 14 game slate that might be too overwhelming as well. I’ll go from all the time in the world and no games, back to no time because of work, and shit ton of games to dissect.
High risk low confidence plays here. i’m sure there’s better smarter plays to make. Didn’t look at every game and kinda just picked a random game in my spare time.
Ottawa Brady Tkachuk to score 2+ goals +850
Could take him just to score at about +130. Giroux as well at +230.
Brady has scored a goal in 8 of 28 games so far this year. In 6 of those 8 he’s scored 2 goals. One of those games was vs Penguins. So maybe a situational matchup for him here at home. Currently Brady’s on a two game goal scoring drought where’s he recorded 13 shots. His longest drought on the year is 5 games. He’s coming off a 5 game road trip and may be glad to return to home ice where he scored 10 of his 14 goals.
Boston Coyle to score +360
Boston DeBrusk to score +290
Boston could be lifeless here before the break. Or they may look for a better effort after the 5-1 loss at the Jets yesterday. They get a favorable matchup vs Fleury. I’m lookin for better odds than what’s being offered on Pastrnak, who probably will score. However it’s all minus money on Pasta so not much value. I like the Coyle pick more but it’s still low expectations. I took Debrusk for a second shot at it. Haven’t been impressed with DeBrusk, but he’s so far off his last two seasons metrics this might fall into the he’s due category. A below average goaltender might be what he needs to get going.