Written by Graeme on Saturday, December 3rd, 2022
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It was a big night for the road teams last night, with all three winning.
The Sens got their revenge win, which wasn’t too much of a surprise. It must be so frustrating being a Rangers fan right now.
I’m glad the odds weren’t great for the Islanders because that was a potential play with better odds, and they got thumped by the Preds.
And how about those Jets? Just a diaster of a team and only able to put one goal past one of the worst defenses in the league. Coming off two big games for them too. They’re a team I haven’t liked to back for a few years now and seeing results like that doesn’t really make me want to change my mind.
It’s Saturday so you know what that means – EIGHT MILLION GAMES TO GO THROUGH. Well, 13. But it’s still a bloody lot. Always feel like there are some missed opportunities there as there is inevitably some games where I decide not to bet them after a quick glance, when further exploration might pick out a bet.
Wild vs Ducks:
Wild heavy favourites to the point would have to take them -1.5. Their mixed results over the last little while don’t give me much confidence in that. It’s more about the Ducks and how poor they are as to whether that will cover or not.
Of course – always gotta look at the metrics. I think I’ve mentioned it before but anyway I’ve learned that it’s best to focus more on recent (last 10 is a good baseline) versus overall. Then if something stands out, I dive into it a ton more.
Ducks conceding pretty much as expected, but the Wild offense overperforming. Their SCGF/60 is good though. Basically I don’t hate Wild -1.5 here, but at 1.86 it’s a pass from me. It’d need to be above 2.00 for me to consider it.
Bruins vs Avalanche:
Bruins stuttered briefly, but got back to form with a big win over Tampa. They play the Avs for the first time this season who are quite up and down at the moment.
Bruins are performing very well. Their offense is slightly overperforming. Avs are pretty much on point. Goaltending is helping the Bruins, with Ullmark a big factor in that. He’s going to have to be at his best today against the Avs.
Feel like Bruins can get the win, but this Avs offense is concerning and I could see them pushing it to OT or making it just a very nerve-wracking game overall.
Oilers vs Canadiens:
The Oilers come in struggling a fair bit. They have been a real disappointment this year. Habs not anything great either. Oilers I’d haev to back -1.5 and I do not have faith on that. The over is 6.5 and I mean I think the Habs are probably good for a couple goals but too high for my liking.
Flyers vs Devils:
Would have to do Devils -1.5. Which on the road, I am not a big fan of. They’re scoring pretty much as expected, while Flyers underperforming. Flyers goaltending is a big issue for them right now. Amazing how things can change on a whim like that.
Flyers when they lose lately, they lose heavily. Devils have generally been good at covering.
I think it’s one of those where it’s like if the Devils win, then they should cover the handicap. Flyers looked poor against Tampa. I think the Devils -1.5 is fine here.
Devils -1.5
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
USA: +115 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/03 9:02:26 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Sharks:
So I said yesterday I think the Sens offense should get going soon. Will this be the game? Sharks defensive metrics aren’t great. Could be the game to get them back on track.
If betting them, would have to take them in regulation and I don’t think you can do that as the Sharks should be able to get a couple too. Team goals over 3.5 it would have to be at 2.15. I dunno I could see them hitting 4 but it’s such a gamble when it’s based on “they should be doing better”.
The over a possibility too but you look at both teams recent results and it’s like eh. I’ll begrudgingly stay off this one.
Penguins vs Blues:
Penguins come in generally playing well. Blues – not so much. Both teams have high SCGF/60 and also decently high SCGA/60.
The over is actually tempting in this one. The Blues offense is overperforming but both teams putting in the goals. Blues also conceding a fair bit.
I also loved that last game against the Knights, and the fight from the Pens. That was a very good sign. The Letang situation might have spurred them on.
Yeah I think there is enough here to go with Pens in Regulation if Jarry in net.
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/03 9:02:26 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Lightning vs Leafs:
Leafs come in on a nice run. No regulation losses since the 11th against the Pens. Tampa come in a bit all over the place. Two high scoring offenses and both performing pretty much on point. The difference between the two is the Leafs goaltending as Tampa actually have better defensive metrics.
Think this game has a good possibility of going over. Just depends on the Leafs goaltending. Very few teams have been able to hold Tampa back though.
Over 6 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.88 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -113 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.88 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/03 9:02:26 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Red Wings vs Golden Knights:
I’m fine skipping anything involving the Knights right now. I actually don’t think the Wings at 2.30 are a bad play but they’ve let us down a couple of times this week.
Rangers vs Blackhawks:
I’m not even going to look at this one at all. Rangers are pretty much unbettable for or against.
Canucks vs Coyotes:
A big concern with the Canucks is their goaltending is pretty much as it should be, while they’re overperforming offensively. At -1.5 having to be the play yeah I’m fine passing on this especially after their last couple of results.
Kraken vs Panthers:
This could be a banger of a game. Kraken are a ton of fun at the moment. Their goaltending has regressed again but they’re making up for it with 4.14 GF/60 in their last 10. Panthers concede a ton too, but high on SCGF/60.
Yeah I mean I think you gotta go with Over 6.5 goals incl OT/SO here. All the metrics make it a play. Two of the top HDGF/60 teams all season, with middling HDGA/60.
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/03 9:02:26 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flames vs Capitals:
Flames favoured by a fair bit – 1.58 to win incl OT/SO. Don’t think I agree with that. Probably value on the Caps but they’re not a team I am rushing to back. I’d have Flames at more like 1.80 so there is deffo value on that Caps line. One of those I might have a flutter on because I feel there is value….but not that I have the confidence it will win.
Kings vs Hurricanes:
Nothing on this one. I’m fine staying away from the Canes for awhile.
Guess which goalies won last night. One feature to predict them all. So much value! 😎🥰
I usually look at goalies, but will note that trend! Thanks.
Look at SV% 😀 To me it’s like a silver key to back up my bets.
Toronto ML
Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames
if Kuemper in net:
Overtime
Capitals ML
(else no bets)
Florida Panthers at Seattle Kraken (experimental, no real bets)
Overtime
Panthers ML
Strong leans I’m considering:
Full game OVER: Oilers, Pittsburgh, Vancouver
To WIN moneyline: Seattle, Oilers
WIN reverse Puckline of +1.5: Seattle
Possibly some parlay picks there. I’m quite surprised Seattle gets about X1.40 for the reverse puckline of +1.5, since I think everything points to them winning moneyline. Florida is a “good” team this year, but not dominant by any means, and Seattle is the real deal.
Oilers will play to win, it’s Saturday, at home, rested, pissed off and Skinner is in net. Montreal takes far more penalties/game and the Oilers powerplay is radically superior to that of the Habs. Tick-tack-toe night in Edmonton, a clinic. Oilers know the Flames just lost to Montreal, so they’ll be alert to that. Then again, the Flames are not consistent on offense these days and Montreal is not dominating play by any means. Oilers need points, I see every reason they show up tonight.
OVER picks look pretty good for the Vancouver and Edmonton games, and while I never bet on a Pittsburgh game, at least I’ll look at the situation, and the OVER looks like good data. St. Louis is an OVER machine.
Avs incl OT/SO
Penguins in regulation
Devils -1.5
Kraken – Panthers Over 6.5 in regulation
Knights in regulation
Habs incl OT/SO
Lightning – Leafs Over 6.5 in regulation