Written by Graeme on Sunday, December 4th, 2022
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A 2-2 night last night.
Won with the Penguins in regulation in a nice and easy one, as they dominated the Blues.
Also won with Tampa vs Leafs to go over. Nervy at times, but it got there.
Lost with the Devils -1.5. They won, but couldn’t cover the spread. It was a disappointing game from the Devils in all honesty, with a real lack of intensity. They look a bit worn out in all honesty and a kind of relaxed schedule the next week will help.
Also lost with the Panthers/Kraken over. Seattle – what happened? Very disappointed the offense couldn’t get the goals. xG was over 8. Right play, variance was like nah, not tonight.
That Sens offense came alive last night which was something I was saying could happen. Will be interesting seeing if they follow up with that.
A nice 5 game slate today.
Jets vs Ducks:
I mean I literally just said I find it hard to trust the Jets, and they lost to the Blue Jackets 4-1. At home. After beating the Avs 5-0. ’nuff said. I can’t touch anything here. Jets barely beat the Ducks back on the 17th.
Nothing for this one.
Stars vs Wild:
Stars favourites here. They’ve been pretty decent at home. Wild come on on the back of a ton of high scoring games.
It’s tricky as the over looks nice but both teams aren’t too shabby at GA/60 which is why it’s 6 instead of 6.5. Stars have goaltending helping them.
Wilds defense has good metrics. So it’s a case of do the Stars score against teams with similar metrics? Actually despite recent results, Wild have the 2nd best SCGA/60 over the last 10.
I can’t take the over here with solid Wild defensive metrics, and also Oettinger. Two big factors.
Jackets vs Wings:
I kind of like the over in this one but the line is 6.5 which is a tad hefty. Both teams have poor Corsi and Fenwick offensive metrics. The Jackets defenseive metrics are pretty bad.
Both teams are scoring a good amount and it’s pretty much expected to continue. Both conceding with the Jackets goaltending actually helping them, while the Wings goaltending letting them down. Both teams about average for SCGF/60 and maybe slightly above average for SCGA/60.
This is the Wings first road game since the 19th. That game saw them beat the Jackets 6-1 so hey revenge game time. Wings on the road have seemed to score fine.
I dunno this feels a little bit of a loose play. But I think the over does have potential.
Over 6.5 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 2.00 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +100 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/04 7:39:46 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Sabres vs Sharks:
Yeah I mean this one should go over. Again I’d prefer that 6 line as opposed to 6.5. Buffalo are the better team offensively but they leaking goals like crazy. Really bad SCGA/60 as well which will help the Sharks.
Over 6.5 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.95 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/04 7:39:46 AM EST but are subject to change.)
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/04 7:39:46 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Islanders vs Blackhawks:
Nothing. Islanders should win. But they do seem a bit overpriced. Thing is their xGA/60 is real bad at 3.54. If this is one of those random games where the Hawks click, they could be in real trouble. I think there actually might be slight value on the Hawks even with their poor defensive stats. Silly as it sounds, with the Islanders offense cold the last couple of games, I’m actually tempted on Hawks -1.5. as I feel there’s a chance the games goes that way, and if it does then that one at 6.25 odds has value. You just have to know going in you’re going to lose like 4 out of 5 times probably.
I don’t like the matchups for sides or totals today, and all the away teams are on back-to-backs, yet I still can’t see anything. I agree, Jets are so inconsistent I can’t risk it. Even the Dallas game gives me the shivers once I look at the past 10 games. The problem with the San Jose/Buffalo game could be lack of motivation, which gives it an Under result. Nah.
AHL: To WIN: Bridgeport and Ontario
AHL Lean: Providence to win too
NFL: there are some low odds moneyline bets that look obvious, yet quite good for two home teams.
Agreed Bridgeport, I’m on that as well. Not confident with Baby Bs though, they’ve been up and down.
Thanks Graeme, tailing overs
Stars game has tons of action for me:
Stars in regulation
Robertson to score
Kaprizov to score
Jets -1.5
Sabres in regulation
Jackets – Red Wings o6.5 incl IT/SO
Blackhawks incl OT/SO
Jets and Islanders parlay at -115.
You could switch this to both teams in regulation for about a +145 payout. Or just one in regulation and the other money line for still a plus payout.
More of an anti Chicago pick based on the spot. As touched on a bit in the write up above the Islanders do have some weird advanced stats in there that I’m kind of putting to the side. I just don’t think the Blackhawks will be able to take advantage of it. 5-2 victory for them yesterday. But still have performed poorly in the 5 on 5 metrics. Their powerplay has been their one saving grace this season and it did click for 3 more yesterday. So a repeat of that and I obviously don’t like the bet. However, one of those was on a two man advantage if I remember correctly. The second happened a minute later. 3 for 4 on its powerplay and an empty netter and yep that’s how we get 5-2. I’m hoping The Islanders who do have an above average PK on the season, can fare better and the game flow could make it difficult for the Hawks to have to rely on a repeat of yesterdays results. 70 total minutes in penalties between them and the Rangers including 17 penalties overall. Two fights including one with Toews. Though i do use the phrase ” fight” loosely as opposed to what fights used to be back in the goon days. And 8 powerplays shared. We could see a huge energy dump by the Blackhawks. A stagnant Hawks team off a positive result, with an inflated score line that doesn’t tell the real story of how poor their metrics were, vs a home team with a solid goaltender in Sorokin coming off two losses. I like the Islanders in this spot.
The jets 1.82 GA/PG at home puts them in second behind the Bruins. The Ducks 2.2 GF/PG on the road puts them worst in the league. Oddly the Wild are second worst at 2.22 which I wouldn’t have guessed. The home loss to the Blue Jackets at 4-1 for the Jets we saw Rittich in net. I assume we get Hellebuyck for this one though still unconfirmed. The blue jackets are a bad team agreed. But they recently got Laine back. And will give effort and if they can get the goaltending, 37 saves by Korpisalo in that game, will win some we expect them to lose. The Ducks are a different level of bad. Take into account the worst team in every division currently.
Buffalo 10 wins
CBJ 8 wins
Chicago 7 wins
Anaheim 6 wins
What separates the Ducks level of bad though? The Ducks are 2-10-3 on the road. The Ducks are -43 in Goal Deferential when the next worse teams are -23. And the kicker for me. In 25 games so far ( thru 30 percent of their season) the Ducks have just 1 regulation win. No other team has less than 5. That’s just eye opening to how bad the Ducks are.
Getting two teams at Home vs inferior competition,both on road back to backs where they got points, is a good spot to go chalk. The other three games don’t entice me nor do they offer the value I can get if both these teams do what they are expected to do. I like the parlay today because I can’t decide between which team I like better if I had to choose one.
Gimme The Islanders and The Jets money line parlay at -115.
Sabres opting to use Luukkonen in this spot. Could indicate they are going to try and use this game vs the Sharks in the b2b to try and get him some confidence. Comrie on IR and listed as week to week with a knee injury, with no real other update or timetable has me thinking he might not be close to returning. Andersons age means the Sabres need to limit his usage. Anderson would still be the best chance for Buffalo if they were looking to just get a win. All signs point to Luukkonen being forced into action earlier than expected this year. And Buffalo realizing they might need him for an extended period of time. Do the sabres change to a conservative tactic possibly? The Sharks are 20th at 2.85 GF/PG on the road. Bottom of the league but not the worst so the Sabres would still have to limit their chances. And the only way to do that is maybe a less open game which would effect Buffalos offense as well.
I wanted to avoid the unknown of Dell since he’s only had one start since returning. I looked at Sharks team total under 2.5 at +120. And also both individual goalie props to eliminate the possibility of an empty netter adding a goal however unlikely the scenario. However just because I’m thinking the Sabres will focus and shape the game plan to limit the chances against to get the kid some confidence, doesn’t mean it will actually be effective. He still needs to go out and perform. Which is something he’s done only once so far in his limited 4 starts. The under 6.5 at 51 percent odds gives me a little more leeway. The Sharks could hit 4 goals and I could still potentially cover.
Under 6.5 at -105 in the Sharks/Sabres game.