Written by Scott on Tuesday, December 5th, 2023
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6 games yesterday.
The Lightning beat the Stars 4-0 to end their losing skid at 4 games. Was a nice payback from the ass kicking they took against the Stars on Saturday. The Flyers beat the Penguins again and like the game on Saturday night this one also needed extra time with Couturier scoring the game winner again.
The Jets beat the Hurricanes 2-1 with Connor scoring a goal and an assist, the Canadiens beat the Kraken 4-2 to end their 2 game losing streak and the Blues beat the Knights 2-1 in overtime.
For today we have 8 games.
Kings vs Blue Jackets Betting Tips:
The Kings are 7-2-1 over last 10. They are ranked 1st in both GPG and GAPG, 2nd in SOGA and have the top ranked penalty kill. They are on the road where they have gone a perfect 9-0.
The Jackets are 4-6 last 10 and rank 24th in GPG, 22nd in GAPG and 29th in SOGA. At home they have gone 6-7-1.
The Kings can tie the NHL record for consecutive road wins to open a season with their 10th. Of the 9 road wins they have this season each was won in regulation so I’m going to go with that.
Kings win in regulation
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -140 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/12/05 8:19:17 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Rangers vs Senators Betting Tips:
The Rangers are on a 3 game win streak and are in 1st in the Metro. They score the 8th most goals per game and allow the 6th least. On the road they have gone a great 10-2-1.
The Sens have gone 5-5 over last 10 and their home record is 7-7. They rank 10th in goals and 20th in GAPG. They are in 8th in the Atlantic with a 9-10-0 record.
The Rangers are one of the league leaders in points for a reason, they are a good team.
Rangers incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.75 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Rest of Canada: 1.75 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -125 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.75 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/12/05 8:19:17 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Red Wings vs Sabres Betting Tips:
The Wings have won 2 straight and are 6-2-2 over last 10. The 2 game win streak is nice but it was against the Hawks and the Habs so tough to use that as a measure of their success.
The Sabres have lost their last 3 games. They are 3-6-1 over last 10 and are in 7th in the Atlantic. They still haven’t been able to get their goal scoring going consistently. They are ranked 25th for goals and 26th for shots.
On the road the Wings 5-4-1 and at home the Sabres are 5-6.
Not at fan of either teams record for where they are playing so passing.
Sharks vs Islanders Betting Tips:
Sharks are 4-5-1 over last 10 and are in 8th in the Pacific. They rank poorly in most stats coming in at 32nd in goals, shots on goal, goals allowed and shots on goal allowed.
The Isles are 5-2-3 last 10 and are in 4th in the Metro. They are scoring 26th in goals and 15th in goals allowed.
Not a huge fan of the Isles play this season. I find them very inconsistent and there’s no way I’m touching the Sharks.
Predators vs Blackhawks Betting Tips:
Nope.
Ducks vs Avalanche Betting Tips:
The Ducks won their last game vs the Avalanche 4-3 in a shootout which snapped their losing skid at 8 games.
The Avalanche have dropped the last 3 games with 2 of them needing extra time including the shootout loss to them on Saturday.
The Ducks road record is 5-5 and they rank 27th in GPG and 25th in GAPG. The Avs home record is 8-2 and rank 5th in GPG and 12th in GAPG.
Would need to take the Avs -1.5 and the odds for that aren’t worth the risk with them losing the last 3 games against the Coyotes, Kings and these Ducks.
Wild vs Flames Betting Tips:
The Wild have been perfect under new coach Hynes going 3-0. They are currently ranked 20th in goals and 27th in GAPG. If they keep playing the way they have with Hynes then those numbers will get better.
On the road they have gone 3-6-2.
The Flames are 5-4-1 at home, 21st in GPG and 19th in GAPG. They are 6-3-1 over last 10. They are in 4th in the Pacific with 23 points but the top 3 teams are all in the 30s.
I want to back the Wild but it’s a small sample size with the new coach. The Flames have been playing better but are nowhere near a team I can trust enough to tip.
Devils vs Canucks Betting Tips:
This will be the first game featuring all of the Hughes brothers.
The Devils have gone 4-6 over last 10 and are in 7th in the Metro. The Canucks have gone 5-5 over last 10 and are in 2nd in the Pacific.
The Devils are scoring 3.59 goals per game which has them in 4th and are allowing 3.73 which ranks them 31st. The Canucks are 2nd in GPG with 3.84 and 5th in GAPG with 2.56.
On the road the Devils are 6-4 and in Vancouver the Canucks are 8-2-1.
With all of the Hughes brothers playing it will be fun to watch. I have no tip for this game.
Not much confidence in the plays because I’m going against some strong teams. But I do feel like I’m getting solid line value and not enough respect is being given to the home teams on these lines.
Columbus +180.
When Handicapping I priced the Kings as -165 road favorites. They are currently going at about -220 here on the road. While I like the Kings and just took them to beat the Avs recently, I just don’t see the value in taking them at that price. The current price puts them at 68.7 percent on the road. That makes them about 23.5 better than the Blue Jackets. My Power Rankings come to 15.5. This -220 for the Kings on the road, is saying the Kings would be priced -370 favorites at home. As good as they’ve been that just feels way too high to me. Kings undefeated on road is impressive, and while Columbus record is below .500 both home and away, they have performed significantly better at home. Kings could easily steamroll the Blue Jackets here but in a long season where anything can happen in one game, I like the value I’m being offered on CBJ.
Chicago +154.
If you weren’t a fan of my last play you won’t be a fan of this one either. I made Nashville -110 on the road here. They are currently-185 on the road. This would make Nashville -300 at home and I can’t confidently lay that price on Nashville. I will say the Predators have performed well going 7-3 over their last 10. And I may not have properly valued them in my power ranking based on their recent play. Because my -110 price does admittedly feel too low. But The -185 still feels too high. Chicago is 2-8 last 10 and currently on a 3 game losing streak. Admittedly this is an ugly play, I just can’t get to making the Predators that high of a favorite vs anyone. They are way overvalued at that price in my opinion.
Calgary -105.
Another line that makes little sense to me. Wild are on a 3 game win streak and getting that new coach bounce that everybody loves. While I also like going with the new coach theory at times, there’s also a time when it just gets too expensive and the value is canceled out. Both teams have had underwhelming starts to their seasons, especially since they were both expected to be in better positions then they currently are. That being said I still have the Flames Power Ranked higher than the Wild. I need to see a little more sample from Minnesota before that changes. The Wild’s 3 game win streak has come against The Blues, Predators and Blackhawks. The Flames have also performed better as of late going 6-3-1 over their last 10. I’ll take them as home dogs here.
Vancouver -110
To be clear I’m not a fan of any of these plays and this one is no exception. It’s just the line pricing is so out of whack it’s forcing me to take them. New Jersey is getting healthier and we may start to see them go on a roll. Vancouver has not been as dominant but still going a respectable 5-5 over their last 10. While I do think the Devils will be one of the top teams by the end of the season, I can only rank them what they’ve been up to this point. And they do have their defensive and goaltending issues. Maybe people are anticipating them being pissed over losing 6-3 to the Sharks at home? Now they’re small road favorites at Vancouver? I don’t get it.
I will say any and all of these plays can easily lose. But I’m just not seeing any value on taking the other sides of any of these games. In the past there was certain teams I would never play, and teams I would never play against. With creating my own lines it’s allowed me to overcome that and hopefully in the long term be a sharper bettor by identifying value. Most times I’m trying to take the team bias out of my decisions and just play the number. I’m enjoying the freedom of taking an ugly play, or four, from time to time. I just try to keep the expectations low, not over react to any one performance, and roll over to the next day regardless of the results.