Written by Graeme on Thursday, February 15th, 2024
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A 2-0 night last night. What a great month February is turning into, and we’re only halfway in.
Scott took the Panthers to beat the Penguins last night. I was wary of that one myself as while I liked the Panthers there, I’m still not over them burning me twice a couple of weeks ago. Glad he went with it, as they convincingly beat the Penguins.
The Wild ticked all the boxes against the Coyotes, and got the win.
The Jets got the win but their offense has been struggling lately and continue to struggle with just a tight 1-0 victory.
Tis Thursday. Tis busy. Let’s get to it:
Senators vs Ducks:
Ottawa on a nice run. No surprise they check all the boxes here. Good price on them. Won of those you don’t really have to think too much about. The math works out, and the only thing you have to worry about is the silly variance of hockey.
Senators in Regulation
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -123 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/02/15 7:46:01 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Lightning vs Avs:
Nice to see the Avs get back on track but their defensive metrics are horrid. Tampa have some decent little defensive metrics too. Not sure if Avs will continue to roll or if they’ll struggle offensively here. Not seeing any bets.
Sabres vs Panthers:
Panthers played last night. Happy to skip and with some solid goaltending over the last 10 on the Sabres part – could be a tricky outing for Florida.
Devils vs Kings:
After that oddity Kings-Sabres game I’m happy to pass on this while we wait to figure out who exactly the LA Kings are right now. Metrics lean towards the Devils anyway and based purely on those, price is as I would price it.
Rangers vs Canadiens:
Happy to pass on the Rangers. When they win in regulation, they cover the -1.5 that is required to bet on them here. But the metrics overall don’t support it.
Leafs vs Flyers:
Leafs battling inconsistency at the moment. Philly on a nice run but now have to go on the road so a big test for them. By the metrics man it’s a bit close in some spots with Flyers with a better Corsi & Fenwick. Not sure if they can outscore the Leafs though.
Kraken vs Bruins:
Two struggling teams right now. Definite lean on the Bruins. Worse Corsi, Fenwick ab out the same. GF% much better although xG is close. SCGF much better too. Yeah I think there is enough here to take Boston. Despite the loss, they came out feeling better after that Tampa game and with the homestead nearing its end, that should be proper motivation.
Bruins in Regulation
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -118 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/02/15 7:46:01 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Predators vs Stars:
I don’t know why but I’m just not really feeling Dallas right now, despite their solid W-L record at the moment. Metrics would have to be overwhelming for me to back them here. They aren’t. I’d price them as about 1.74 favourites which is what they are. Preds offense has showed signs of life, and this could be a competitive game. No bet.
Blues vs Oilers:
I have concerns that the Oilers may become inconsistent to run out the season. Would have to bet them -1.5 here and not seeing it with the Blues goalscoring as of late Although to be fair if we’re judging them from post-break it’s a bit hard to call.
Blackhawks vs Penguins:
No bet here. By the metrics, Pens win. But on a back to back after that loss last night and having to take them in regulation on the road at 1.76 odds? Ew.
Flames vs Sharks:
Flames run came to an end with the 2-0 loss to the Rangers. Sharks have had a long break and then lost 1-0 to the Jets. We’d have to take the Flames -2.5 here and no thanks.
Canucks vs Wings:
Canucks certainly have the advantage in the metrics, but these two just played on the 10th and I hate backing teams when they played within a week. Canucks better Corsi, Fenwick, SF%. GF% is all positive towards them, as is xG%. Hell SCGF too. Really ticks all the boxes. HD stats nice too.
Goddamnit. Canucks returning home briefly where they are a beast. Wings just about .500 on the road. Yeah I have no choice here. Wings lit up DeSmith last time. He’s actually had a bit of a torrid time lately too. So let’s make it goalie dependent at least.
Canucks in regulation if Demko in net
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -111 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/02/15 7:46:01 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Ottawa and NJ Over Team Total 2.5
Two Team Parlay at -127
I still have concerns about Ottawa’s goaltending and their defensive health. Sanderson and Zub listed DTD and last game out they were forced to play with 5 defenseman as they either wait for them to come back or call someone up. Latest update I’ve seen Sanderson will still be out but no word on Zub.
Forsberg returned in goal for Ottawa after a month out. I watched the game vs Columbus and he made some really great saves. Having said that, Ottawa still allowed CBJ to score three goals and take 40 shots. Both he and Korpisalo have sub 90 save percentages and GAA’s above 3.3.
I’ll eliminate the worry of their goaltending issues here and just focus on their offense.
Pairing them with the Devils to also score Over 2.5. A concern of mine is to see how Kings respond after the 7-0 loss to Buffalo. That being said, if Devils play to level of their recent home form, they should still be able to get to the 3 goal mark.
Devils have scored 3 or more in 4 straight at home. And 9 of their last 11 home games as well. Hughes has played in 4 games back from his most recent injury. And has scored goals in his last two. Which could help add to the Devils offense here.
Boston Regulation -125
If Boston plays the way they did vs Tampa, I like their chances here. Aside from that, Seattle has seemed to struggle scoring on the road over the last month. Seattle hasn’t scored more than 2 goals in their last 7 road games. And has been shutout twice. And the xGA has been alarmingly high in just about every game but the Islanders one.
To WIN moneyline in STYLE: Ottawa, and Philadelphia
Strong lean: Ottawa wins on the puckline
After how Ridly Greig got treated by the juvenile delinquents from Cabbage Town, I’m a Sens fan for a while, and this matchup looks OK. I hope he takes another slapshot into an empty net from 8 feet, it’s his right.
Philly has not had an easy season, and this opportunity looks within easy grasp. If the ailment Toronto has is the same kind of thing I have, a “4-day cold” sort of thing, those players won’t be sharp or energetic without getting pumped full of, as Dr. Frank Zappa called it, “Trendy chemical amusement aid”. Team physicians have lots of that ephedrine on hand, but it’s quite a false kind of high, they’ll possibly be a little dim between the ears even if the legs are going crazy. There’s no way the Leafs are near their best tonight.
I read this over at SBR: “The Maple Leafs also have an illness going through their locker room. William Nylander, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner are all questionable after missing practice on Wednesday, and, of course, the Leafs are without top defenseman Morgan Reilly due to a five-game suspension. They’re missing Calle Jarnkrok and Connor Timmins as well.
Others I’m curious about: Wins for Oilers, Bruins, Canucks, Flames, Stars, Florida/Buffalo going Under 7.0. They look too obvious, so I’m looking for the contradicting info.
Today I take NJ Devils ML @ 1.87 with 14 units
Thanks for the hard work you guys put in each night. Much appreciated. Made a lot of money over your great winning run lately.