Written by Graeme on Saturday, February 24th, 2024
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Apologies for the delay today. Had a late night work sesh so woke up late, then had a run and soccer to watch. Banger of a result for Rangers. What a man Clement is.
The Blues/Wings game has already started so I’ll skip that. Habs/Devils and Islanders/Lightning are cutting it a bit close time wise so I’ll pass on those as well.
Let’s get into todays hockey.
Flyers vs Rangers:
Flyers will be looking to get a little run going after it was derailed slightly, with the win over the Blackhawks. Rangers come in on very solid form since the All-Star break with zero losses in regulation during that time.
Flyers actually have a much better CF & FF over the last 10. Rangers are the better performing team but the bookies line looks dead on here.
Panthers vs Capitals:
Panthers coming in off a loss to the Canes and a tight OT win over the Sens. These two played recently with Florida winning 4-2 but the Caps offense is rolling right now.
Panthers better metrics obviously. I kinda like the over in this one. I haven’t backed the over in awhile it seems. Not sure what it is this year just the metrics aren’t there for it all.
So the big question for this game is really the Capitals and if they can score against the Panthers with their solid defensive metrics.
Stolarz is in net tonight. He is coming off that 45-save shutout against Buffalo. Washington haven’t really faced anyone similar recently. So it’s a bit of a question mark.
Regardless, I am going to go with it with the caveat that there is a huge question mark as to whether Washington can contribute or not. I hope they can with their offense on fire at the moment. A large reason for this is simply that I haven’t backed an over in awhile and I feel the urge. Tkachuks injury might be a slight concern but they have enough weapons to overcome that.
Caps/Panthers Over 6 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.89 Odds at Bovada
USA: -112 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/02/24 1:35:20 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Canucks vs Bruins:
Oh Vancouver what has happened to you? Boston themselves not backable. Happy to pass on this shit show.
Avs vs Leafs:
Interesting one. Bookies have it close with Avs favourites, but man the Leafs offensive metrics and Avs defensive metrics are so nice to see.
Reilly came back but wasn’t a negative factor and you just have to hope they continue that.
Avs offense stuttered last time. Leafs solid on the road. Avs though damn good at home.
Last time these two played was in January when the Avs won 5-3. Avs offense was firing on all cylinders at that point though.
I’m actually going to roll the dice on the Leafs. I think there is enough value here. Their offense has been phenomenal.
Leafs incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 2.06 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +106 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.06 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2024/02/24 1:35:20 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Knights:
Sens actually with the edge here, huh. It’s close but I already feel I am taking a bit of a gamble with the Leafs and hitting a very small value play so I don’t want to add to that.
Hurricanes vs Stars:
Nothing for this one. Stars have a few good numbers in the metrics that put me off a Canes play.
Kings vs Ducks:
Nothing.
Oilers vs Flames:
Oilers on the B2B and had some issues yesterday. Happy to pass. It could go over but it’s a bit too tight with the Flames and if we can count on them.
Kraken vs Wild:
Nothing for this one. Not sure Kraken should be such big favourites seems like it could be a high variance game.
Sharks vs Preds:
Always wary of a team on a road trip. Preds killing it at the moment but could be a let-down spot. I like them but not enough at the current odds.
Units now: +6.52 🥳
Okay let’s take New Jersey ML @ 1.37 with 1 unit
If you want to bet with more value, you can wait and see if Montreal scores first and then place the live bet on New Jersey or just skip the game.
And then later we take Ottawa ML @ 1.83 with x units
If New Jersey wins: x = 1
If New Jersey loses: x = 2
Have fun
Rangers/ Flyers draw after regulation. +310.
Rangers on 9 game winning streak. As a fan I might be making too big of a deal how lopsided the metrics were in the Devils game Rangers were outshot 40-18. Also gave the Devils five power play opportunities. I don’t know if the score line was the cause for Devils metrics to be so high though. But Rangers will have to give a better performance against a Flyers team that lacks top talent scoring, but always seems to give effort. I worry about a little Rangers fatigue from the current 9 game win streak too. I’m going to pick draw after regulation and will be interested how Rangers look with another game tomorrow.
Other games I saw as possibly going to Overtime were Boston vs Vancouver, and Dallas vs Carolina.
Ottawa -115.
This is a weird one for me as I made the early handicap Vegas -135 going into it. It opened with Ottawa -115 and Vegas -105. So I went into it looking for a play on Vegas. Once I got to looking at the metrics though, I actually like Ottawa better in this spot. I still wonder if I can trust Ottawa’s goaltending so that would be a concern of mine. I wouldn’t be surprised with a high scoring back and forth game.
Rangers, Tampa Bay, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Carolina, Detroit, Nashville and Anaheim all play again Sunday for those who factor back to backs and starting goaltenders into their handicaps.