Written by Graeme on Thursday, January 11th, 2024
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Hi guys and welcome to Thursday.
Yesterday we saw the Stars pummel the Wild 7-2, and the Avs defeat the Knights 3-0.
The Habs and Flyers had a tight one that went to a shootout.
Reddit pointed out that Sanhiem and Drysdale wear 6 and 9. Nice.
Usual big Thursday slate.
Let’s get to it:
Hurricanes vs Ducks:
Canes coming in off that Blues loss – their first loss in aawhile. Ducks had a few close games then blasted the Preds 5-3.
If you’re betting this you’re going with Canes -1.5 most likely. It’s a bit iffy. Ducks some decentish performances lately and I mean their road form is superb with 3 road wins in a row. Canes you never know how a team will react when a run ends.
I will say that the metrics all point to the Canes -1.5. But man you look at their home results and things are a bit iffy lately.
Basically I feel they’ll cover it, but 1.80 odds seems dead on and no value there.
Red Wings vs Oilers:
Detroit some solid results for 2024 already. Edmonton still doing well with a nice run going although their offense has tapered off last couple of games. That’s a concern for me. The Hawks game in particular they were very weak. I’m going to pass in case their offense is about to go through a dry spell.
Panthers vs Kings:
Oh LA Kings what has happened to you? They have lost their mojo big time, now are on the road against the marauding Florida Panthers.
Metric wise, this one isn’t too clear cut. Kings have a SUPERB CF/60 – best in the league. Same for their FF/60. But that’s just not translating well. It’s really weird to figure out how you would fix that team.
Anyway the metrics really aren’t overwhelming in their favour, but this does look like a good spot for Florida. And if they don’t pull it off – welp, that’s the joys of betting hockey. The Panthers streak is a lotta weak teams, but you do have the Avs in there, as well as teams that can be tricky such as Tampa, the Knights and hell even the Habs who often run teams right close.
Panthers in Regulation
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/11 7:06:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Lightning vs Devils:
I’m happy not touching Tampa or anything involving them right now Nothing really jumping out in the metrics. While GF/GA might indicate the over, the xG & SCG stats do not back that up.
Sabres vs Senators:
Buffalo look to get back on the winning trail as they host horrible Ottawa. Bookies giving us a decent enough price on the Sabres but I mean – these teams did just play and Ottawa blased them 5-1.
That one I said I could see the over coming in but I was concerned about the SCG metrics for both teams and the Sabres couldn’t contribute there. It’s similar here to be honest.
I was hoping the data would be strong enough towards Buffalo I could back them but just not seeing it here. It’s close but where I would price Buffalo is where the sportsbooks have them.
Capitals vs Kraken:
Caps with the 4-3 win over the Canes. Kraken playing exceptionally well at the moment even with some tough teams in there.
The metrics point towards the Kraken, and they’ve proven themselves on the road. It’s tough because so many of their games are tight, but their offense has woken up last couple of games and we have to hope that continues.
Caps you just never know about them and they can cause problems.
One of those games where I don’t feel confident about the outcome, but I do feel it’s the right bet to make. Kraken incl OT/SO if Daccord in net
Ontario: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
USA: -111 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.89 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/11 7:06:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canadiens vs Sharks:
C’mon Habs get a bloody result against the Sharks FFS.
I’m gun shy about backing them after they let me down against Buffalo. By the metrics yeah they should be winning this.
Islanders vs Leafs:
Wonder if after facing the Sharks twice, that will throw the Leafs off. I mean this is a step up in opposition. Hell the Kingston Frontenacs would be a step up in opposition.
That’s really the only reason I am not taking the Leafs here. If any team would get affected by that sort of thing, it would be Toronto. Data points to a win by the Leafs to the point I’d take an in regulation play. I mean the Corsi metrics alone are just stupid here.
Leafs absolutely SHOULD blast them here but yeah – just concerned we get that over coinfident Leafs team that always causes problems for them.
Penguins vs Canucks:
Vancouver with the nice win over the Islanders to continue a successful road trip. Their offense is firing on all cylinders right now.
Penguins can be tricky though. Their GA/60 and xGA/60 are impressive as their SCGA/60. With Canucks relying on offense, happy to pass here.
Jets vs Blackhawks:
Would have to be Jets -2.5 or the over. The metrics lean towards the -2.5 but man that is a LOT. I don’t know if I have ever tipped that. Can’t back the over as the data makes it likely the Blackhawks get like 1 goal max.
I can’t bring myself to back Jets -2.5 but I tell ya – the data probably makes it a play if you are considering it.
Blues vs Rangers:
Nothing for this one as the Rangers battle consistency. Data isn’t really too heavy in their favour anyway.
Coyotes vs Flames:
Slight lean on the Flames here – but bookies also slightly lean on them negating it. No pick.
Knights vs Bruins:
Boston should get the win but not a fan of their odds, and this road trip has been a tough one so far.
