Written by Graeme on Saturday, January 14th, 2023
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Hi guys,
We’ve got our usual big Saturday schedule, and unfortunately I am battling a bit of a hangover.
Not one of those crippling ones – thank F for having the common sense to drink a few pints of water when home. But my god I cannot be arsed today.
What this all means is that write-ups will likely be short unless there is a game I like ha. Although in saying that I do tend to yammer on anyway so we’ll see how it goes.
Let’s get on with it:
Stars vs Flames:
Earl game and tips won’t be e-mailed to everyone by then so I’ll pass. Metrics have this close but I’d lean Stars due to home performances.
Red WIngs vs Jackets:
Can’t trust the Wings to cover the handicap due to their defensive metrics.
Islanders vs Canadiens:
Avs vs Senators:
Metrics suggest Sens get at least 3 goals here, but I am wary of them on the road. Avs still utterly terrible. If Sens were at home I’d back them but not a fan of them as much on the road.
Caps vs Flyers:
I think Islanders right the ship tonight but cannot back them with how terrible they are playing.
Hurricanes vs Penguins:
Canes look to be back on track and don’t think the Penguins can hang with them offensively here. Pens goaltending an obvious issue too. Freddie already had a game back so hopefully he’s feeling good and performs better. But even if he lets in a couple, Canes offense should overpower them.
Hurricanes in Regulation
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -130 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/14 12:38:09 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Bruins vs Leafs:
Matthews back tonight. That might be a big change for them. Passing due to that.
Panthers vs Canucks:
Unfortunately the over 6.5 is down to 1.71 and basically going to be over 7. This one points to goals but then the Panthers have a GF/60, and SCGF/SCGA 60 both below 3 so also a concern. No bet here.
Wild vs Coyotes:
Wild -1.5 isn’t even playable at the odds. I think they’ll cover that but not worth it at the price. No bet.
Predators vs Sabres:
No play here. Over is tempting with the xG and goals scored starts, but the SCGF & SCGAs are both lower than what I would like and Saros is playing very well.
I’ll say Over 6.5 goals if Saros not in net
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.97 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -103 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.97 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/14 12:38:09 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Blackhawks vs Kraken:
Honestly with how weird the Kraken can be at times, I don’t hate a bet on the Blackhawks here. They are actually playing not too bad right now. The metrics aren’t overwhelming in Krakens favour either.
Blues vs Lightning:
Goals and xG generally lean to this one going over. Tampa having some high scoring games. Blues offense took the night off against Calgary but have generally been decent.
The one issue is Stamkos and chasing that goal – feels like they will be trying to feed him more than normal which is always a concern.
But think there is enough to go with Over 6 incl OT/SO. Vasy is leaky last few games and hopefully that keeps up.
Knights vs Oilers:
No bet here.
Kings vs Devils:
Devils slight underdogs. Their defense is a concern at the moment. Kings coming in with some good results a nice little 3 game winning streak. Copley giving them confidence although the offense has bailed him out his last couple.
Blackwood is projected tonight which is a concern. Could see backing the over if he is in net.
Devils incl OT/SO if Vanecek in net
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.94 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: 1.94 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.94 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/14 12:38:09 PM EST but are subject to change.)
And thanks to this green tea I was drinking throughout these tips. Helped right the ship somewhat!
Penguins ML +170
Penguins last 3 games this season against Hurricanes were Carolina wins. 2 went to OT and the other was a 3-2 score. Hurricanes 1-4 over last five games. Road B2B you’d expect the Penguins to lose.
I am going to play Stamkos to score his 500th goal, whole team will help ..it will be nice party after match..
I did a similar thing yesterday with McDavid to score on his birthday. The -135 wasn’t the best odds but it cashed fairly quick vs Kahkonen and the Sharks. Hope yours does as well.
with a 12 game card I figured there was something on the day that would jump out to me, but I’m coming up empty.
I’ve mostly gravitated towards underdogs because of the prices on some of them. With so many games, a popular strategy is to parlay the heavy favorites together. Common practice is also to take the heavy favorites in regulation and puck lines to increase the returns. Books will put extra tax on most the favorites to protect themselves a bit against it. Hence why so many underdogs are finding their way on my radar. I don’t really like any of them however and none are sticking out from the rest of the pack.
First group summed up…in my opinion when looking at the lines…
Vancouver +175 has a better than 36 percent chance of beating Florida
Columbus +195 has a better than 33 percent chance to beat Detroit
Chicago +195 has a decent spot here to pull off a potential upset in a perfect storm kinda scenario. I mentioned Seattle’s heavy January schedule which has also been mostly on the road. This will be Seattles 7th road game so far this month. 7 game win streak, undefeated in the month of January. They are just coming off a potential high of giving the Bruins their first home regulation loss. In a shutout. And now they face the lowly Hawks before returning home? The look ahead for Seattle is just one home game vs Tampa Bay.. a holiday afternoon game. Followed by a Road back to back in Edmonton. Can the Hawks, on a three game win streak of their own take advantage of a potential look ahead by a superior Kraken team? Or will the Kraken take care of business and grab the 2 points putting pressure on the Kings and Knights ahead of them? When Seattles hot they’re hot. 10-1-1 in November. 7-0 to start January. 4-4-2 and 4-7-1 in the other two months. If I take any shot on a low expectation high reward game, that can blow up in my face less then 4 minutes in, it’ll prolly be this one…so far.
Arizona +300 I can’t motivate myself to spend time pouring over Coyote advanced metrics with so much else going on not just in hockey but the other sports going on today. Lazily can I ask myself does Arizona have a better than 25 percent chance to beat Minnesota even if the Coyotes are on the road? Sure why not.
The Next group of Underdogs I gravitated to…
Ottawa
The Sens opened up +155 to Colorado and I circled this as a team worth actually looking at metrics to see if there’s a play. However, quicker bettors then me have already pounced as Ottawa is now down to +135. I waited too long and the value has been bought.
Buffalo
Buffalo opened +125 on the road to Nashville and similar to Ottawa deserved more time spent on the metrics. It also has been bought down to +110 now. Assuming Saros for Nashville, his .932 sv % over the last 15 games, is not what I really wanna go against. Though I do think Buffalo has the offense to give any goalie problems. I think the line is now correct and I was too late to pull the trigger on this one as well. Out of the teams I listed so far, I do think Buffalo probably has the best chance of actually winning its matchup.
Pittsburgh
Was not originally on my radar when it opened +145. If anything I would say take Carolina in that spot. However there’s been a huge run on the Canes moving from -170 opener to currently-210. That has bumped the Pens up to +180. On first glance I would say they have better than 35 percent odds on the upset, even with the struggles, no Jarry and no Letang. However the run on Carolina has me cautious as I don’t really know the reason behind it. Was this a mistake line by the books being off almost 5 percent when they opened? Or is something else that caused it. The fact the line has stopped at -210 and hasn’t continued its climb makes me think it was just a bad opener. I also thought of under 6.5. Carolinas defense and discipline along with the Pens reliance on the Powerplay with no Letang. But heavily juiced already and Anderson coming back and only 9 games so far this year. Add DeSmith lasting 7 minutes in the Vancouver game. Couldn’t get there.
I’ll personally take a half unit play on Chicago +195. I don’t have high expectations on this and am fully aware how ugly it can get. If you’re looking at actual potential upsets I’d still go with Buffalo or Ottawa. I personally just wish I grabbed the better prices, and the Buffalo one especially feels like the current line is correct.
NJ vs LA over 6.5 -110
Whenever I see a total that looks too obvious, I tend to just stay away. And often times I’m glad I do. Today’s lack of NHL plays have me taking a shot on this one. Though not feeling great about it.
The logic:
Let’s start with the obvious standout to me. A potential Blackwood vs Quick matchup here. Though neither is officially confirmed, it’s what I’m seeing being projected. The back to back spot by the Devils here doesn’t bother me as much. They got off to the fast start vs the Ducks and never looked back or were threatened. The devils should have been able to do a lot of, less than maximum effort and coasting without fear in that game. A little surprised they wouldn’t put Blackwood in the Ducks game. Maybe they were thinking Vanecek back to back? Devils 4.05 GF/GP on the road puts them second in the league in that category. Kings 8th at home with a 3.43. The Kings still with a poor penalty kill could provide more opportunities as well. The obviousness of the play gives me some hesitation and lower expectations. But the data and lack of a solid play on todays card has me willing to take a shot.
Devils vs Kings over 6.5 -110