Written by Graeme on Friday, January 19th, 2024
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It was tight, but a 2-0 night last night.
Had the Oilers -1.5. They went down 2-0 in the 1st period. However they bounced back in the 2nd period, and then managed to get a late goal to cover the handicap.
Had the Canucks in regulation and that was a sweat but they were also able to get the job done.
A bit of a busy Friday with four games on the board. Let’s see what we’ve got:
Hurricanes vs Red Wings:
Canes coming in off that big Kings loss which ended their streak. They have been streaky this season and I have concerns with backing them. In saying that, it’s hard to bet against them too.
The Wings have actually had solid results lately and yet to lose in regulation this year.
This is one where against all my better judgement, I’d back the Wings if the metrics stood up. Unfortunately, they don’t. Canes much better GF%, XGF%, SCGF%. It won’t surprise me if the Wings win, but I can’t advise it based on “Canes have been streaky”.
Panthers vs Wild:
Panthers in regulation odds are playable, but maaan is it tough. Wild got blasted last night after what I thought might be a turnaround for them. So they’re on a B2B. Panthers though haven’t won in regulation in their last 4.
It says something that I am considering backing the Panthers, considering they have let me down twice in the last week. First in regulation against the Kings, and then in regulation against the Devils.
Metrics all point to the Panthers too. But I am reminded me of the ol “fool me once, shame on you” deal.
Plus you have the Panthers going on the road after this so that adds to them wanting to win. Not sure if Barkov will be in tonight.
Anyway – Panthers is the right play. Check all the boxes. I’m going to be mad as hell tomorrow I expect – but I’m not going to back them here. They’ve screwed me twice in the past week, and I feel I need to get one right without actually backing them financially, before I can feel comfortable betting them again.
Jackets vs Devils:
I’m fine backing neither team here. The Jackets offensive metrics put me off the over. Devils probably should win but on the road coming in off some rough losses – nope.
Blackhawks vs Islanders:
Another one with two unbackable teams. Blackhawks at over 3.00 odds is kinda tempting isn’t it? And when you look at their home results lately – actually pretty good against some tough opposition like the Oilers, Flames, Jets. Hell, beat the Avs at home, took teh Canucks to a tight 4-3 game etc.
They have a 9-11-1 record at home, while the Islanders are 8-10-4 on the road.
Honestly I’ll probably chuck something on the Blackhawks at that price, but I’ve looked at the data from all angles and not seeing anywhere where I’m able to say yep – here’s why we back them.
To WIN moneyline: Florida
Florida has a few problems, and Barkov is out today, but they have been scoring, even during the recent 3-game loss streak, where the only main red flag was the loss to Anaheim, but hey, all the good teams take a night off sometimes, especially if fatigue levels and play-through injuries would greatly benefit from it. I don’t think they look so bad tonight. Florida does not have any defense or goalies out injured. Minnesota is having more serious problems since the turn of the year; poor scoring and only 2 wins. Add the back-to-back after a shellacking last night, and Florida aught to take this. After this game, Florida gets 2 days off, so they’ve nothing to lose here. I would suspect that Florida is feeling some fatigue after their consistent “playing every other day” recent schedule, but nothing that turns them into Swiss cheese. Risky?